What could deter Japan from attacking Pearl Harbor

That wont deter Japan. The warning was sent in secret & the Japanese spies missed the implications of the surge in activity. What it would do is have some CAP aloft Sunday morning, part of the fleet at sea & off to the SE of Hawaii & out of reach, and the Navy AA weapons on higher alert. More of the military would be on duty, the various CP manned by more than the lowest Junior officers. To put it another way the US losses would be lower, and the Japanese would lose maybe twice as many aircraft, 56 vs 28.

Since no one expected the Japanese to attack from the north its probable the strike force gets away without damage. The US forces would be very lucky to even locate it, let alone get a airstrike against it.
 
One good idea would be a planned summit meeting between FDR and Prime Minister Konoye in either Juneau, Alaska or Honolulu. Should it be successful for both sides, Japan would agree to withdraw from both China and French Indochina, negotiate new trade and shipping agreements, and also allow Manchukuo to determine its own future. Such as summit was indeed being considered by both sides prior to 12/7/ 41.
 
The Japanese embassy staff reading up on newspapers and media reports on US politics. If they realize the U.S. can't declare on them first since the Congress is isolationist, then simply reducing the attack plan down to UK/Dutch possessions is a winner for Japan.
Who needs congress when FDR can simply sail a USN covered convoy of LL to Singapore?

The US builds up her Pacific Fleet long before ww2.
What about simply ordering 6 Iowas and 6 Yorktowns on 1 Jan 37 at maximum priority, by the time Japan is ready they will be to late and IJN will know it.
 
Who needs congress when FDR can simply sail a USN covered convoy of LL to Singapore?


What about simply ordering 6 Iowas and 6 Yorktowns on 1 Jan 37 at maximum priority, by the time Japan is ready they will be to late and IJN will know it.

6 NoCals would do even if they were 14" armed ones

The Naval historian Antony Preston maintained that the US started its naval rearmament a year too late!
 
One good idea would be a planned summit meeting between FDR and Prime Minister Konoye in either Juneau, Alaska or Honolulu. Should it be successful for both sides, Japan would agree to withdraw from both China and French Indochina, negotiate new trade and shipping agreements, and also allow Manchukuo to determine its own future. Such as summit was indeed being considered by both sides prior to 12/7/ 41.

Konoye would probably have been assisnated on returning to Japan. Suzuiki who served in the cabinet many times & PM a couple carried a bullet in his chest from a 1928 assassination attempt. Murder was a relatively common settlement of political disputes for Japanese political factions. Yamamoto moved his living quarters aboard ship after his opposition to war became known.
 

nbcman

Donor
Who needs congress when FDR can simply sail a USN covered convoy of LL to Singapore?


What about simply ordering 6 Iowas and 6 Yorktowns on 1 Jan 37 at maximum priority, by the time Japan is ready they will be to late and IJN will know it.
Iowa class design didn’t start until early 1938. North Dakota class would be more likely.
 
Iowa class design didn’t start until early 1938. North Dakota class would be more likely.
I was simply being lazy and using the Iowas as representing any post escalator battleship,

To be more clear I would suggest something roughly,
44,999t
9x 16/45 (3x3)
Balanced protection unlike NCs
With a speed of say 29-31Kn
Basically larger better protected faster NCs

By North Dakota class what do you mean presumably not BB29 (1910) ? SDs or NCs?
 

nbcman

Donor
I was simply being lazy and using the Iowas as representing any post escalator battleship,

To be more clear I would suggest something roughly,
44,999t
9x 16/45 (3x3)
Balanced protection unlike NCs
With a speed of say 29-31Kn
Basically larger better protected faster NCs

By North Dakota class what do you mean presumably not BB29 (1910) ? SDs or NCs?
Yes, merged the BB names / brain fart on my part. North Carolina was an available design in Jan 1937. Although a SD design could be rushed a few months.
 
The US State Department was putting together a plan to offer New Guinea in return for a pull out of China and a new naval limitation treaty. Neither the Dutch or the Australians were consulted about this plan.

Grateful if you can provide sources.
 
The Japanese embassy staff reading up on newspapers and media reports on US politics. If they realize the U.S. can't declare on them first since the Congress is isolationist, then simply reducing the attack plan down to UK/Dutch possessions is a winner for Japan.

Such an attack would kick the Congress into panic and authorize more military spending. Moreever, just attacking UK/ Dutch possessions would not give the stretagic depth wanted by the Japanese to them. US forces stationed in Phillipine would remain a threat to Japanese SLOCs from SEA to Japan.
 
One good idea would be a planned summit meeting between FDR and Prime Minister Konoye in either Juneau, Alaska or Honolulu. Should it be successful for both sides, Japan would agree to withdraw from both China and French Indochina, negotiate new trade and shipping agreements, and also allow Manchukuo to determine its own future. Such as summit was indeed being considered by both sides prior to 12/7/ 41.

It is likely Japanese domestic opinion, esp. from junior miitary officers, would oppose such a compromise and may give rise to a coup (again).
 
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