Then immediate issue that worried Japanese planners was the oil, even a wait of a few months in Japan's plan to attack the US would see dramatic changes in the military situation in the USSR probably enough to cause a reassessment.
What could deter Japan from attacking Pearl Harbor
- Thread starter walmart
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Then immediate issue that worried Japanese planners was the oil, even a wait of a few months in Japan's plan to attack the US would see dramatic changes in the military situation in the USSR probably enough to cause a reassessment.
Paul Large
Banned
The entire reason the Pacific Fleet was stationed at Pearl was to tempt the Japanese into an attack. It was all part of the steps to war. Cut off the oil. Cut off the money held in USA. Shame them. Put the Pacific fleet within attack range. How to start a war.
Would they even be able to take UK or Dutch possession or even want with the Philippines sitting in the middle of their planned conquest and supply lines ?
thaddeus
Donor
cannot find reference to this but is it possible "pull out of China" does not include Manchuria? but rather to pre-1937 borders?
nbcman
Donor
Um, no. The US fleet was moved up as a deterrence to Japan, not as bait. The US and almost all Japanese naval planners thought that Pearl Harbor was out of reach. All the embargos and freezing of assets against Japan were attempts to stop a war from spreading; they were not part of a great conspiracy to get the US into one.
The Philippines aren't a problem until the U.S. is formally in the war. Of course, plans for what to do if that does happen would need to be made. But I doubt the American entry into WW2 happens as soon as the DEI/Malaya are invaded. It would take many months to push through a DOW for someone else's benefit.
My understanding is that at cabinet level, it was decided to put pressure on Japan by limiting oil shipments. At this meeting it was acknowledged that cutting oil would cause war. Assistant Secretary of State Dean Acheson creatively interpreted the instructions to cut the oil shipments. When it was realised that supplies to Japan had been cut it was felt that opening them up again would send the wrong message as a back down. Now on the conveyor belt to war, when the Japanese invasion fleets were on their way south, Roosevelt was going to ask Congress to declare Armed Neutrality from Monday Dec 8th, similar to what was active in the Atlantic. That Japan was about to attack was obvious but the US leadership expected attacks on US ships in China, not as far away as Hawaii. Planning in Hawaii was on how to bait the IJN to come to the central Pacific so the USN could fight it, not wholly crap we are the first hit! None of the various Rainbow plans envisaged the fall of Singapore or the Malay/NEI barrier. Japanese success on this scale was not anticipated. Not even the Japanese anticipated it.
On the issue of the US confronting Japan:
From "The Clash: U.S.-Japanese Relations Throughout History" by Walter LaFeber p184-185
On the issue of the US confronting Japan:
From "The Clash: U.S.-Japanese Relations Throughout History" by Walter LaFeber p184-185
Possibly. But, the New Guinea proposal sounds like one of those ideas raised in a meeting, then after some reflection dropped. Maybe someone spends a few days or weeks studying it, maybe there are some memos, or a few pages of analysis, but thats the extent of it. If each of us had a penny for every dead end idea raised in a planning meeting we've attended we'd have money for a banquet size lunch, and a afternoon of drinking after.
Japans leaders knew the PI were to be independent in 1946. Had they used logic and patience they'd been able to seduce the Philippines into favorable treaties with Japan. Eventually the US would be wondering why it was paying so much for a useless little isolated naval base on Luzon.
thaddeus
Donor
LOL! yes I would be a rich man!
but you understand my point that Manchuria was talked about as a discrete entity whereas now we refer to whole of China. New Guinea does not seem plausible as even a swap for the occupied areas outside of Manchuria, but certainly for the whole of Japanese territories on the mainland it would be an insult?
I have an idea. The British are stronger than OTL
The British do OP Judgement with bells on using a multiple carrier strike - using scores of AC rather than just 21 aircraft - sinking all of the Italian BBs and CCs at Taranto along with some of the CLs and DDs - shifting Naval power firmly into the RNs court and this is followed up with a far better increased build up in Malta than OTL
This allows for a better North/East Africa Campaign due to greater interdiction of Axis logistics
Following on from this the Australian and New Zealand commanders query the plans for the Greek adventure with their governments (OTL they did not) and this delays their deployment to Greece as part of W force to the point where W force is not sent before the German invasion of Greece and instead the Troop ships and RN assets are used to recover Greek troops and use them to garrison Crete.
With worse than OTL logi and improved Commonwealth forces in North Africa Rommel is not strong enough to attack Wavells forces in Cyrenaica and instead he is forced to go on the defensive.
With the Japanese occupation of the rest of FIC in July 1941 the Australian Government, fearing that the Japanese seek to seize the Dutch East Indies which would include attacking Malaya, and the Philippines and subsequently threaten Australia, requests that the 2nd AIF's divisions in Africa are returned to the Far East and in Sept and Oct both the Veteran 6th and 7th Divisions are sent to Malaya to form with the 8th Division the Core of the Imperial forces there (with 2 Divisions from the UK sent to relieve them in Africa). In addition the RN having not suffered as many losses in the Med as OTL is able to send a more powerful fleet to Singapore centered on Illustrious and Ark Royal and 5 battleships/1 Battle Cruiser.
Seeing that the Imperial forces in Malaya are now far stronger than hoped with 2 'proper' Commonwealth Infantry Divisions and increased naval assets the Japanese leadership gives pause and delays plans regarding the region and this includes not attacking the US fleet at Pearl Harbour as well as invading the Philippines.
As 1941 ends and the USA gets drawn into the European war during early 1942 - the Japanese realise that the moment has passed and that the USA has become too powerful with its war industry now in full swing and they estimate that the USA will produce 200 infantry divisions worth of troops far in excess of their own forces.
By 1943 Japan now scraping the barrel with regards to POL, asks to negotiate with the USA regarding the sanctions and by 1944 the moment has truly passed.
The British do OP Judgement with bells on using a multiple carrier strike - using scores of AC rather than just 21 aircraft - sinking all of the Italian BBs and CCs at Taranto along with some of the CLs and DDs - shifting Naval power firmly into the RNs court and this is followed up with a far better increased build up in Malta than OTL
This allows for a better North/East Africa Campaign due to greater interdiction of Axis logistics
Following on from this the Australian and New Zealand commanders query the plans for the Greek adventure with their governments (OTL they did not) and this delays their deployment to Greece as part of W force to the point where W force is not sent before the German invasion of Greece and instead the Troop ships and RN assets are used to recover Greek troops and use them to garrison Crete.
With worse than OTL logi and improved Commonwealth forces in North Africa Rommel is not strong enough to attack Wavells forces in Cyrenaica and instead he is forced to go on the defensive.
With the Japanese occupation of the rest of FIC in July 1941 the Australian Government, fearing that the Japanese seek to seize the Dutch East Indies which would include attacking Malaya, and the Philippines and subsequently threaten Australia, requests that the 2nd AIF's divisions in Africa are returned to the Far East and in Sept and Oct both the Veteran 6th and 7th Divisions are sent to Malaya to form with the 8th Division the Core of the Imperial forces there (with 2 Divisions from the UK sent to relieve them in Africa). In addition the RN having not suffered as many losses in the Med as OTL is able to send a more powerful fleet to Singapore centered on Illustrious and Ark Royal and 5 battleships/1 Battle Cruiser.
Seeing that the Imperial forces in Malaya are now far stronger than hoped with 2 'proper' Commonwealth Infantry Divisions and increased naval assets the Japanese leadership gives pause and delays plans regarding the region and this includes not attacking the US fleet at Pearl Harbour as well as invading the Philippines.
As 1941 ends and the USA gets drawn into the European war during early 1942 - the Japanese realise that the moment has passed and that the USA has become too powerful with its war industry now in full swing and they estimate that the USA will produce 200 infantry divisions worth of troops far in excess of their own forces.
By 1943 Japan now scraping the barrel with regards to POL, asks to negotiate with the USA regarding the sanctions and by 1944 the moment has truly passed.
That effectively destroys IJN, as IJA gets the lion's share of the budget. What IJN CO will go along with that?
That was exactly how Japan saw it. To bad nobody in DC did.
I couldn't give you the source offhand, but I've read that was exactly what the U.S. meant: leave metropolitan China; letting Japan keep Manchuria (which Japan very much wanted) was okay with FDR.
The UK and Dutch colonies were Japan's true objectives. They only attacked the Pacific Fleet because they were afraid the U.S. would intervene to protect European colonies. (Given Roosevelt's response to the occupation of Vietnam, this was a logical fear. And moving the Battle Force to Pearl Harbor from San Diego also didn't help matters.) If the Japanese don't think the U.S. is going to intervene, they probably won't attack the Pacific Fleet.
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Before Yamamoto pushed his PH plan to approval the intent had been to hit the US Asiatic fleet and the Cavite naval base much harder. Including carriers vs just a land based strike. Part of the IJN admirals opposition to the high risk PH strike was it took the carriers away from other operations thought essential. IIRC a IJN carrier group was to strike Luzon from the South China Sea, then take a short step south to support the operations in northern Maylasia. This implies the Brit surface TF being attacked by carrier launched strike as well as the Annam based bombers.