What could be the fourth largest third party in U.S. politics?

It's a silly question for a seemingly irrelevant position, but it's interesting to consider what political ideas Americans can best accept outside of the mainstream. As I've said before:

Largest (voter registration over 100,000)
Constitution Party - Paleoconservatism, paleolibertarianism, Conservative Libertarianism
Green Party - Green politics, eco-socialism, progressivism
Libertarian Party - Libertarianism, laissez-faire

This makes sense- the Greens are far more leftist than the Democrats, yet do not subscribe to socialism (which Americans have a phobia about) or social democracy (which Americans do not know anything about), and the other two parties both cover Americans' minarchist sentiments.

So, Constitution/Libertarians cover America's individualism, fears of a big fedgov, and general unhappiness about taxes. The Greens are the closest thing to a social democratic party. Sure there are dozens of socialist/communist/Marxist parties in the America, but they are all tiny and/or doomed.

What other ideology can rise to the top to be another contender as a major third party?

Here is my previous thread about Christian Democracy being a possible party's platform: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=195418
 
I can see a paleo-liberal party. Think LBJ. Fiscally liberal, socially center-left, but interventionist foreign policy.
I could see a Secular Party, which has the sole purpose of getting government of religion and religion out of government.
Or even a Bill of Rights Party, from across the spectrum.
I've always found the Constitution Party using the constitution quite funny. The purpose of the Constitution was to empower the government!
 
Wouldn't you have to change how the American electoral system works? With the current winner takes all system, having a bunch of small parties is not really plausible. Its more likely that all the little parties who are close enough in ideology join up to have a better shot at being in control.
 
Wouldn't you have to change how the American electoral system works? With the current winner takes all system, having a bunch of small parties is not really plausible. Its more likely that all the little parties who are close enough in ideology join up to have a better shot at being in control.

No; I'm not talking about some grand change to American politics. I'm just asking what fringe, left- or right- of mainstream ideologies could become more popular enough to support a big third-party party, either replacing one of the three in the OP, or being among them. The two-headed dragon would still dominate normal, mainstream politics, but the spoilers and fringe talking heads might be slightly different. And yes, I know usually that third parties aren't even all that significant as spoilers, to be honest. TR and the Progressives, George Wallace, Perot and the Reform Party- they were all products of their time and led by charismatic leaders, not created by third parties that slowly grew in popularity over decades. Libertarians and Constitution Party have never been electorally significant, and the Greens were only an issue in 2000 because of Nader (who didn't even return to them in 2004). What I'm more interested in is which off-mainstream ideologies are most appealing to the American people. Going by membership of the current big three, it seems like they are paleocon hard-right conservatism with theocratic tendencies, libertarianism, and Green politics with some social democracy thrown in.

Consider, we already have a bunch of third parties, but there are three big ones based on membership and size. What ideologies could number among them?
http://www.politics1.com/parties.htm
 
I floated the idea of a Christian Social Democratic party founded by MLK in another thread. Not viable anymore, but a Dixiecratic conservative party could also have been a minor force into the 1970's or 80s... if it had been a Republican president who enacted civil rights legislation(say Nixon beats Kennedy in 1960).

For the future, I see a reactionary party based on protectionism against both foreign imports and technological advances(once employment starts to really hemorrhage due to displacement by technology). It would probably be populist in other areas... mostly socially conservative but in a fashion appealing to Hispanics and Blacks(who suffer the highest unemployment rate), but also inclined to wealth redistribution.

That is unless, of course, one of the two main parties coopts protectionist impulses.
 
People don't like to waste their vote in close national elections, but on the local level a well-funded, well-organized national third party could do quite well, say, in city and state legislative elections. Then later if it's built up to where it has thousands of people in local elective office it could present a credible national challenge. I'd say a Green Party would have the best chance, as global warming gets worse and starts to create major economic problems. But you'd need a Green Party that's strong on national defense, not one that weds environmentalism and pacifism.
 
I could see a William Jennings Bryan-esque Populist Party, attracting Hispanics and African Americans with fiscal liberalism and social conservatism.

Agreed. This is the most likely development simply because it is an empty spot on the political spectrum. We currently have a mainstream conservative party (Republican), an extremist conservative party (Constitution), a mainstream liberal party (Democrat), an extremist liberal party (Green), and a socially liberal fiscally conservative party (Libertarian). What's missing is a socially conservative fiscally liberal party. The problem is that their main constituent group, as you pointed out, would be ethnic minorities, who tend to be extremely religious but vote Democrat due to fiscal issues. What you'd need is for social issues to achieve parity with, or even override, fiscal issues in the minds of those voters. If that happens I could see a significant number of African Americans and Hispanics splitting off to form some sort of Christian Democratic Party which opposes abortion and gay marriage but is even more liberal than the Democrats on taxes and spending issues.
 
Agreed. This is the most likely development simply because it is an empty spot on the political spectrum. We currently have a mainstream conservative party (Republican), an extremist conservative party (Constitution), a mainstream liberal party (Democrat), an extremist liberal party (Green), and a socially liberal fiscally conservative party (Libertarian). What's missing is a socially conservative fiscally liberal party. The problem is that their main constituent group, as you pointed out, would be ethnic minorities, who tend to be extremely religious but vote Democrat due to fiscal issues. What you'd need is for social issues to achieve parity with, or even override, fiscal issues in the minds of those voters. If that happens I could see a significant number of African Americans and Hispanics splitting off to form some sort of Christian Democratic Party which opposes abortion and gay marriage but is even more liberal than the Democrats on taxes and spending issues.

Very true. Although I'm not sure the MLK-esque figures would support this party, I have confidence that southern African Americans and whites would come out to support this party if it existed. Then, a 2012 election could possibly look like this. Independent stands for the Populist Party we are discussing.
genusmap.php
 
Very true. Although I'm not sure the MLK-esque figures would support this party, I have confidence that southern African Americans and whites would come out to support this party if it existed. Then, a 2012 election could possibly look like this. Independent stands for the Populist Party we are discussing.

That's a bit stronger than I would expect them to get. I figured they'd just be a strong force in the A-A areas of the south and some urban areas. They could perhaps sneak into second in most of the southern states, since they'd drain Democratic support in those states, and maybe win a half a dozen congressional seats, but I was thinking of them more as a third party (albeit a very strong one) as opposed to a major competitor that breaks the two-party system. Still, I'd love to see a TL with four major parties (fiscal conservative social conservative, fiscal conservative social liberal, fiscal liberal social conservative, and fiscal liberal social liberal).
 
The problem is that their main constituent group, as you pointed out, would be ethnic minorities, who tend to be extremely religious but vote Democrat due to fiscal issues. What you'd need is for social issues to achieve parity with, or even override, fiscal issues in the minds of those voters. If that happens I could see a significant number of African Americans and Hispanics splitting off to form some sort of Christian Democratic Party which opposes abortion and gay marriage but is even more liberal than the Democrats on taxes and spending issues.
I don't think it take that, you'd just need them to be alienated. Hell, Hillary Clinton being nominated in 2008(especially if it was through a brokered convention) might be enough to generate a backlash in the black community that could lead to such a third party in 2012.
 
Hmm... I like the Green Party myself. In time, with the GOP seemingly in decline and the Democrats moving twoards the center, they might fill in the gap on the left.
 
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