What Comes After A Third World War in 1948?

One unknown: the Middle East. World War III would be starting right in the middle of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. Would the Arabs and Zionists be willing to fight a common enemy like China's Nationalists and Communists were? And with Allied weapons production running at full tilt, the Israelis would find it much harder to get foreign arms.
What common enemy?
British had already left,this TL means they are busy being shot at in Germany, USSR is too busy counting mushroom clouds to offer anything, and USA is occupied with dropping nukes to add to that total.

The last Czech arms shipments had already arrived, cut off by Stalin's order

They are on their own, and the Israelis were winning, both against Lebanon and the Egyptians

from the wiki
Israeli forces subsequently launched raids into the Nitzana area, and entered the Sinai Peninsula on 28 December. The IDF captured Umm Katef and Abu Ageila, and advanced north towards Al Arish, with the goal of encircling the entire Egyptian expeditionary force. Israeli forces pulled out of the Sinai on 2 January 1949 following joint British-American pressure and a British threat of military action. IDF forces regrouped at the border with the Gaza Strip. Israeli forces attacked Rafah the following day, and after several days of fighting, Egyptian forces in the Gaza Strip were surrounded. The Egyptians agreed to negotiate a ceasefire on 7 January, and the IDF subsequently pulled out of Gaza.
 
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A lot depends on when the war starts. When the actual conflict came to an end the Israelis were advancing and only US/UN pressure got them to stop. If there is a West/USSR war going on this pressure is not going to be applied. In 1948 the Suez Canal was still occupied and run by the British, and the USA and UK (primarily) solidly controlled the Saudi and Iranian/Persian oil production. Attempts by the Egyptians to screw with Suez or the Saudis to interfere with oil production would be stomped and stomped hard. The Iranians/Persians really had no dog in the 1948 Arab-Israeli Wars.

In 1948 the USSR is in no position to represent a "common enemy" to the Arabs and Israelis. The Soviet Navy might have a small ship or two in the Med at the most, and the Soviet Air Force does not have the reach to get to that area and to the extent it could the only target worth hitting is the Suez Canal, and in any case the Soviets will be very busy using their air elsewhere. As far as land forces go, if and when Soviet land forces reach Israel/Palestine, if things have gotten that bad neither the Israelis nor the Arabs can do much about it.

Both the Arabs and the Israelis will have issues with weapons and ammunition resupply while the big boys are fighting, so expect at some point the fighting would taper off. OTL had there not been foreign intervention to stop the fighting it is likely the Israelis would have taken all of Jerusalem and more of the West Bank, perhaps all of it.(1) Immediately in May, 1948, there was a huge inflow of Jews from the DP camps on Cyprus and in Europe. The Berlin Blockade started about a month after the Declaration of Israeli Independence. Once WWIII starts the logistics of moving large numbers of folks from the DP camps to Israel becomes much more difficult, and depending upon where the camps are they may be overrun at some point, which would be ugly. Again, if the war starts right away in June, 1948 this has one set of consequences, if it starts later in the summer or in the fall, another.

(1) It is worth noting that the West Bank and parts of Jerusalem occupied by Jordan until after the 6-Day War were "occupied", in 1948 Jordan was Trans-Jordan and this territory was part of the Palestinian Mandate not part of Jordan/Trans-Jordan. Had the Israelis occupied the entire West Bank in 1948, this would not have altered the territorial integrity of Trans-Jordan one bit. Likewise Gaza was part of the mandate not Egypt, so had that been occupied by the Israelis in 1948 Egypt also would have lost zero "Egyptian" territory.
 

kernals12

Banned
What common enemy?
British had already left,this TL means they are busy being shot at in Germany, USSR is too busy counting mushroom clouds to offer anything, and USA is occupied with dropping nukes to add to that total.

The last Czech arms shipments had already arrived, cut off by Stalin's order

They are on their own, and the Israelis were winning, both against Lebanon and the Egyptians

from the wiki
Israeli forces subsequently launched raids into the Nitzana area, and entered the Sinai Peninsula on 28 December. The IDF captured Umm Katef and Abu Ageila, and advanced north towards Al Arish, with the goal of encircling the entire Egyptian expeditionary force. Israeli forces pulled out of the Sinai on 2 January 1949 following joint British-American pressure and a British threat of military action. IDF forces regrouped at the border with the Gaza Strip. Israeli forces attacked Rafah the following day, and after several days of fighting, Egyptian forces in the Gaza Strip were surrounded. The Egyptians agreed to negotiate a ceasefire on 7 January, and the IDF subsequently pulled out of Gaza.
The Arabs were very anti-communist.
 
Depending on how much of their industrial base is destroyed and spread of the fallout. The USA could permanently or long term crippled the remnant or successors of the Soviet Union. Espically if we don't provide any aid or money.
Just sit back watching the likely mini wars and famines to happen as the dust settles from the war.
 

kernals12

Banned
Depending on how much of their industrial base is destroyed and spread of the fallout. The USA could permanently or long term crippled the remnant or successors of the Soviet Union. Espically if we don't provide any aid or money.
Just sit back watching the likely mini wars and famines to happen as the dust settles from the war.
I think we would. We'd want to stop communism from rising again.
 
If we destroyed enough of their factories, major cities, oildfields, major mines and large amount of fallout is spread than I imagine it be hard for them to rise again.

Even more if the Union breaks up into nations.
Imagine trying rebuilding if you don't have the factories, natural resources, manpower or even own the land where what you need is anymore.
On top of any power struggles, civil war and famine that could be happening.
 

kernals12

Banned
If we destroyed enough of their factories, major cities, oildfields, major mines and large amount of fallout is spread than I imagine it be hard for them to rise again.

Even more if the Union breaks up into nations.
Imagine trying rebuilding if you don't have the factories, natural resources, manpower or even own the land where what you need is anymore.
On top of any power struggles, civil war and famine that could be happening.
They survived Operation Barbarossa, they could survive this. It would not be possible to destroy all of their factories, oilfields, and mines. They could probably disperse and hide a lot of industry.
 
Virtually every country in the world ends up with a liberalised economy which leads to India and China developing much faster and challenging U.S. hegemony sooner, much like how Japan carved away America's manufacturing base by the 70s in our time. The system America imposes on the world will eventually eat America. A mighty ouroboros.
 

kernals12

Banned
Virtually every country in the world ends up with a liberalised economy which leads to India and China developing much faster and challenging U.S. hegemony sooner, much like how Japan carved away America's manufacturing base by the 70s in our time. The system America imposes on the world will eventually eat America. A mighty ouroboros.
What makes you assume that?
 
What weapons would be used?

They survived Operation Barbarossa, they could survive this. It would not be possible to destroy all of their factories, oilfields, and mines. They could probably disperse and hide a lot of industry.
Well we could use a few nukes on their major cities since there going to factories in them, nuke the biggest oilfields since it destroy all the infrastructure and light those fields on fire for a long time while spreading fallout all over the place.

Target their biggest mines too and then transport hubs. And also target refineries and grain storage centers too if their any nukes left.

We don't need to destroyed everything but cripple them badly enough that they collapse and parts break off.
 

kernals12

Banned
I think this thread needs the OP to outline how they feel this WWIII pans out, before we can assess what comes after WWIII.
Something like this:
Soviet Aircraft shoot down planes delivering aid to West Berlin
The Allies retaliate by providing fighter escorts, and attacks escalate
Soviets invade West Berlin
Truman lays down a deadline: If the Soviets do not withdraw from West Berlin and allow cargo to arrive within 1 week, it will be considered an act of war.
 
They could probably disperse and hide a lot of industry.
A lot harder when you have Curtis LeMay 'inspecting' possible sites with Atom bombs.

Doesn't look good for the future of the USSR if the USA considers it one big Free Fire zone. Blowing stuff up is a lot cheaper than rebuilding.

Rebuilding is for US Allies, and perhaps Eastern Europe, since they were occupied. Not the USSR. They would get to sleep in the radioactive ruin of the bed that they made.
 

kernals12

Banned
A lot harder when you have Curtis LeMay 'inspecting' possible sites with Atom bombs.

Doesn't look good for the future of the USSR if the USA considers it one big Free Fire zone. Blowing stuff up is a lot cheaper than rebuilding.

Rebuilding is for US Allies, and perhaps Eastern Europe, since they were occupied. Not the USSR. They would get to sleep in the radioactive ruin of the bed that they made.
That would be a waste of expensive and scarce atomic bombs.
 
Or a pariah nation for massacring millions of civilians once the dust has settled and the breadth of the distraction is realised.

Maybe a pariah, but who would stop the US at that point? I fully expect the US would have a policy that any nation developing nukes in future would be invaded, and that would be written into the UN, which would be US dominated.

The war itself would be not be easy, my guess is 4-5 years to defeat the Soviets, though it would be largely one-sided, and a forced balkanization of the USSR.

China would be very wary of the US and vice versa, the US would stay out of China itself though, though might use nukes if needed (the taboo would be gone) against any Chinese "aggression" Other countries would not be allowed to go Communist. US would be more aggressive in Vietnam- my guess is US war doctrine would be total war vs non-Chinese, non-Korean communist states (I wouldn't be surprised if China and North Korea gobble up the South while the US is distracted)

India would be the most likely state to become a rival to the US long-term, filling a role similar to China.

Civil rights would go a lot slower without a threat of communism, though McCarthyism itself might be butterflied.

Europe would be a mess for a longer time- Marshall aid would instead be WWIII material, Marshall plan holds off until the late 50s in earnest. Europe might demilitarize entirely once colonialism dies out.
 
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Deleted member 94680

Maybe a pariah, but who would stop the US at that point? I fully expect the US would have a policy that any nation developing nukes in future would be invaded.

Wow. Just a little prodding and the USA goes full Evil Empire, just like that? It’s a fine line to be crossed for the US to go totalitarian it seems.

This way, you’d have all the other major nations pooling resources and racing against the clock to develop nukes, just to ensure the Mutually Assured Destruction thing keeps them safe from this psychopathic America that’s developed.
 

kernals12

Banned
How else would you expect the USA to deal what was going on at Sverdlovsk from RB-29 intel in a prolonged war that WWIII would be at this point?
Sverdlovsk was the 10th largest city in the Soviet Union by 1959. That would count as a major target. By dispersing industry, I meant hiding it in the forests like the Nazis did.
 
Wow. Just a little prodding and the USA goes full Evil Empire, just like that? It’s a fine line to be crossed for the US to go totalitarian it seems.
It's less likely before the Soviets explode their own bomb.
After that.....
 
The US would not go full totalitarian. Empire yes, but they've just set the example of what they're willing to do to stop a nuclear state, and would state explicity that the nuclear monopoly would be in their hands. The only country that might consider it worth the risk is China, and it will take them decades as they will be a pariah state. The US itself would probably feel secure enough not to be too overbearing- as their economic advantage would be in the short term greater than it was OTL , and would have its own internal issues.

The only things I think the US will care about are no nukes and no communism.
 
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