What becomes of Maximilian...

Yes, it could be done. OTL the negotiations to marry Isabel to Conde D'Eu started around 1860, but they only married in 1864, when she was 18.

Okay then, you've solved the age problem and now Maximilian can marry Isabel. They have a kid on the same schedule. I would think that Maximilian would probably get involved with the Brazilian navy, since he was a career naval officer. That has the added benefit of keeping him away from the disaster was that was the War of the Triple Alliance.

Well, the Republic was a conservative creation but with liberal support. The most liberal politicians, who believed that monarchies were an old fashioned regime (you can include in this definition all the positivists, who were the dominant faction among the young officers of the army, and the farmers from Western São Paulo, who founded the Republican party in 1870) joined forces with the conservatives (mostly farmers from East São Paulo, Rio and the Northeast). Neither the Church was supporting the Emperor, because of his support to the masonry. So, in 1889 the only supporters the Empire had were the rare monarchist liberals, as Joaquim Nabuco, who wanted a British system in Brazil, and the former slaves, that had no importance in politics.

Would the presence of the young Pedro d'Hapsburg, positivist army officer and Brazilian heir, make a difference in the calculus of the conservatives and their liberal allies?

Although you can't avoid the positivist influence in the army, if you get a quick victory in Paraguay you can avoid the Army becoming resentful of the Monarchy and the political system. So there would not exist the myth that "we saved the fatherland with our blood only, without support of Rio". Also, as Maximilian would not be involved in the war as Conde D'Eu (who was seen as an efeminate that never could even learn Portuguese), there would be less friction between the Monarchy and the Army.

I don't really think that I agree with this assessment. Although you may remove the mythos of the Army being the state that existed OTL, you won't remove the fact that the Army is going to become more and more involved in politics, and that the monarchy is going to be pissing the conservatives off with the slavery issue, and that the liberals really want a republic just on general principles. Now with the right kind of combination of personalities and a little bit of luck the monarchy can survive. The monarchy might be able to gain control of, or at least co-opt, the positivist influence in the army (with young Pedro), but I don't think that you'd be able to create a situation where Isabel and Pedro II survive the end of slavery. The monarchy, maybe with young Pedro, could survive.
 
Would the presence of the young Pedro d'Hapsburg, positivist army officer and Brazilian heir, make a difference in the calculus of the conservatives and their liberal allies?

Depends how much influence and respect he has in the army. A positivist monarch would be interesting. In Brazil the positivism was strongely connected with republicanism. Also, the influence of this philosophy was extremely strong. In my state, where the influence was the highest of all country, the positivist ideas influenced a 30 year dictatorship of a governor. Here in my city there is a "Positivist Temple" (I live only two blocks from it) despite the fact that Positivism was originally anti-religion!
If Pedro find a way to combine monarchy and positism I believe you can get the majority of the army with him.


I don't really think that I agree with this assessment. Although you may remove the mythos of the Army being the state that existed OTL, you won't remove the fact that the Army is going to become more and more involved in politics, and that the monarchy is going to be pissing the conservatives off with the slavery issue, and that the liberals really want a republic just on general principles. Now with the right kind of combination of personalities and a little bit of luck the monarchy can survive. The monarchy might be able to gain control of, or at least co-opt, the positivist influence in the army (with young Pedro), but I don't think that you'd be able to create a situation where Isabel and Pedro II survive the end of slavery. The monarchy, maybe with young Pedro, could survive.

Yes, you have a point, the army is going to become involved in politics. But, I still believe that a quick victory could help in the sense that there would be less bad blood. Also, it would preserve the Liberal government in the Brazilian Parliament, that fell basically due to the war. If the liberals stay longer than everything is changed. The Alliance with Argentina stays (probably Mitre makes his successor there too, which would help). Without foreign problems, with the Paraguayan threat destroyed, the Liberals can turn their attention to internal affairs. If you have an administrative reform giving more power to the provinces it would help too. After all, the slavery wasn't abolished in all country in 1889. Some provinces had decided to abolished it before, but they did it quite illegally. Giving more powers to the provinces to decide, maybe more of them would have made it (and the consequences could preserve even Isabel).
 
Depends how much influence and respect he has in the army. A positivist monarch would be interesting. In Brazil the positivism was strongely connected with republicanism. Also, the influence of this philosophy was extremely strong. In my state, where the influence was the highest of all country, the positivist ideas influenced a 30 year dictatorship of a governor. Here in my city there is a "Positivist Temple" (I live only two blocks from it) despite the fact that Positivism was originally anti-religion!

Was positivism a sort of masonic thing? Those sort of organizations seem to be popular in politically active militaries, and it would certainly make sense.

If Pedro find a way to combine monarchy and positism I believe you can get the majority of the army with him.

If positivism is the sort of proto-fascist that it appears to be, then could you maybe join its reforms to a cult of personality around the person of young Pedro?

Yes, you have a point, the army is going to become involved in politics. But, I still believe that a quick victory could help in the sense that there would be less bad blood. Also, it would preserve the Liberal government in the Brazilian Parliament, that fell basically due to the war. If the liberals stay longer than everything is changed. The Alliance with Argentina stays (probably Mitre makes his successor there too, which would help). Without foreign problems, with the Paraguayan threat destroyed, the Liberals can turn their attention to internal affairs.

If you have an administrative reform giving more power to the provinces it would help too. After all, the slavery wasn't abolished in all country in 1889. Some provinces had decided to abolished it before, but they did it quite illegally. Giving more powers to the provinces to decide, maybe more of them would have made it (and the consequences could preserve even Isabel).

Wasn't a big part of the agenda post-monarchy distributing more power to the provinces? I could definitely see that as a key plank of Pedro's platform.
 
Was positivism a sort of masonic thing? Those sort of organizations seem to be popular in politically active militaries, and it would certainly make sense.

If positivism is the sort of proto-fascist that it appears to be, then could you maybe join its reforms to a cult of personality around the person of young Pedro?

Well, I'm not an expert in philosophy, so I would describe Positivism as a kind of Bureaucratic Iluminism. At the same time that gives incentive to education and scientifical learning it also affirms the importance of the unity in society and the role of the leader. So, probably "proto-fascism" can fit well. It had a kind of cult of personality, but never reached very totalitarian ideas. Generally positivist were pragmatic. For example, they were against the influence of religion, but gave incentive to Catholic orders to stablish schools in the country in order to increase the educational level of the population. Generally they leaned towards nationalism (but not populism, a difference from the future fascist regimes). The best example of their ideas is the Brazilian motto: Order and Progress, i.e., you can't have progress if the society doesn't have order.


Wasn't a big part of the agenda post-monarchy distributing more power to the provinces? I could definitely see that as a key plank of Pedro's platform.
Well, if he do it, then he can neutralize a great part of the liberals, who wanted Brazil as a Federacy. OTL the Republic gave so much power to the provinces that we had civil wars inside the provinces without any involvement of the federal government.
 
Well, I'm not an expert in philosophy, so I would describe Positivism as a kind of Bureaucratic Iluminism. At the same time that gives incentive to education and scientifical learning it also affirms the importance of the unity in society and the role of the leader. So, probably "proto-fascism" can fit well. It had a kind of cult of personality, but never reached very totalitarian ideas. Generally positivist were pragmatic. For example, they were against the influence of religion, but gave incentive to Catholic orders to stablish schools in the country in order to increase the educational level of the population. Generally they leaned towards nationalism (but not populism, a difference from the future fascist regimes). The best example of their ideas is the Brazilian motto: Order and Progress, i.e., you can't have progress if the society doesn't have order.

So this actually sounds like it would be rather perfect for a forward looking monarchy. Pedro III's accession to the throne begins a kind of "White Revolution" as Pedro's military cliche takes over government and installs like-minded allies in the newly autonomous provinces.

Well, if he do it, then he can neutralize a great part of the liberals, who wanted Brazil as a Federacy. OTL the Republic gave so much power to the provinces that we had civil wars inside the provinces without any involvement of the federal government.

With Pedro III's reliance on the military as the prime supporter of his regime I would imagine that he would retain a sort of unofficial control over the country, using his military cliche to guide the politics of the individual provinces, rather than publicly forcing things on a national level. The Army would probably end up the main tool of national policy, sent into provinces to support the politics of the Emperor, and to end any serious civil disturbances.

I would definitely think that you would see a mandatory military service act, to unify the now much more divided country, and to provide a large supply of soldiers in order to maintain Order.
 
I would definitely think that you would see a mandatory military service act, to unify the now much more divided country, and to provide a large supply of soldiers in order to maintain Order.

Interesting... This large supply of soldiers could easily be filled by the former slaves and their sons. In the early days of the Republic the Army was one of the few places were they could find a job that would allow them to have a better life (of course they could not become high oficials due to racism, but less important positions in the army were hold by black men in many places). ITTL the Army could be even more important to ensure their role in the Brazilian society.
 
Interesting... This large supply of soldiers could easily be filled by the former slaves and their sons. In the early days of the Republic the Army was one of the few places were they could find a job that would allow them to have a better life (of course they could not become high oficials due to racism, but less important positions in the army were hold by black men in many places). ITTL the Army could be even more important to ensure their role in the Brazilian society.

If these freedmen end up generationally going into the Army, then I could see a definite move within this group towards a more socialist/communist or more moderately equating Equality as something that goes with "Order and Progress". The many black NCO's are well-aware of the blatant racism that they encounter, and the black units (did Brazil segregate?) become known as the "Black Reds" (probably would sound cooler in Portugese)? The secret organizations that are a fact of life within the Brazilian military are divided along racial lines, lines which also tend to reflect differing evolutions of the "postivism" ideas.

Or the Army is used as a settlement program of sorts. Once men are done with their service, they are awarded land in the interior, most of which is undeveloped. This program of settlements ends up creating large areas where freedmen are the only settlers, giving them control of local government and access to higher positions that they can never achieve in the white-dominated seacoast provinces. Brazil's few freedmen, and freedmen descended national legislators are from these areas, and in a few cases the ex-military freedmen population is large enough for them to take over state governments. This is totally being pulled from thin air, but what of it?
 
If these freedmen end up generationally going into the Army, then I could see a definite move within this group towards a more socialist/communist or more moderately equating Equality as something that goes with "Order and Progress". The many black NCO's are well-aware of the blatant racism that they encounter, and the black units (did Brazil segregate?) become known as the "Black Reds" (probably would sound cooler in Portugese)? The secret organizations that are a fact of life within the Brazilian military are divided along racial lines, lines which also tend to reflect differing evolutions of the "postivism" ideas.

Or the Army is used as a settlement program of sorts. Once men are done with their service, they are awarded land in the interior, most of which is undeveloped. This program of settlements ends up creating large areas where freedmen are the only settlers, giving them control of local government and access to higher positions that they can never achieve in the white-dominated seacoast provinces. Brazil's few freedmen, and freedmen descended national legislators are from these areas, and in a few cases the ex-military freedmen population is large enough for them to take over state governments. This is totally being pulled from thin air, but what of it?

I believe the army would avoid units composed only by blacks. There was in the Tripple Alliance War an unit composed only by blacks - the Zuavos Baianos - but they were mixed with the other soldiers as soon as possible, exactly to not give them the idea that united armed black men could be victorious.

Also, the Positivist were very influenced by the racists ideas of Gobineau. However, in Brazil there was an adaptation. As the huge black population could not be eliminated, they defended more European immigration, thinking that the poor European whites would some day be mixed with the black, making them more "white" and therefore "civilized". What they didn't think is that the Europeans would become more "black" in this process too, because they believed that the "superior white heritage" would dominate the black ancestry.

For freed men settlements, I think it would only be possible in less strategic or valuable lands, as in the North and West. The South and East were already being populated by European immigrants, and it would be difficult to stop it now (after all, they wanted the "superior" whites to bring more civilization to Brazil).
 
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