What are the Geopolitical Implications of a Centralized Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth?

Basileus_Komnenos

Basileus_Komnenos

Assuming Poland-Lithuania manages to pull a Capet and gradually normalize the idea of hereditary succession (much like what happened in the HRE for the Habsburgs), and centralize into more of a united state, what would be the geopolitical ramifications of such an entity of a centralized Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth? What type of Great Power would it be? How would the other European states react to it? What would the PLC look like in terms of economic development, military power, diplomatic reputation, etc. ? What sort of internal political development and structure would it have? Would it evolve similar to the Danish or French monarchical systems which were able to transition into an absolute monarchical nation-state, or would it develop more like the UK/Hungary into something of a Constitutional Monarchy?
 
Last edited:

A Piece of History

Basileus_Komnenos said:
Assuming Poland manages to pull a Capet and gradually normalize the idea of hereditary succession (much like what happened in the HRE for the Habsburgs), and centralize into more of a united state, what would be the geopolitical ramifications of such an entity of a centralized Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth? What type of Great Power would it be? How would the other European states react to it? What would the PLC look like in terms of economic development, military power, diplomatic reputation, etc. ? What sort of internal political development and structure would it have? Would it evolve similar to the Danish or French monarchical systems which were able to transition into an absolute monarchical nation-state, or would it develop more like the UK/Hungary into something of a Constitutional Monarchy?
Click to expand...

Question: When does this happen? I only ask because the Poles succeeded in creating a constitutional monarchical state under a constitution inspired by the US Constitution, which only lasted for 19 months before Russia invaded Poland in the midst of an uprising by anti-Constitution nobles, resulting in the Second Partition of Poland.

en.wikipedia.org

Constitution of 3 May 1791 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
Basileus_Komnenos

Basileus_Komnenos

Nathan Bernacki said:
Question: When does this happen? I only ask because the Poles succeeded in creating a constitutional monarchical state under a constitution inspired by the US Constitution, which only lasted for 19 months before Russia invaded Poland in the midst of an uprising by anti-Constitution nobles, resulting in the Second Partition of Poland.

en.wikipedia.org

Constitution of 3 May 1791 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...
Any pod from the founding of the commonwealth works.
 

A Piece of History

Basileus_Komnenos said:
Any pod from the founding of the commonwealth works.
Click to expand...

The best POD I can think of is the Commonwealth not existing at all, because after Sigismund II died in 1573, the nobility forced every king-elect to agree the Henrician Articles which effectively transferred power from the monarch to the Sejm. King Sigismund II only created the Commonwealth to ensure his own legacy. If Sigismund had a child, then there would be no need for the Commonwealth to exist. While it would be incorrect of me to say the Sejm had no power before 1569, the Commonwealth effectively consecrated the nobility's place as the real power in the monarchy, not the King.
 

Jan Olbracht

If bishop cardinal Zbigniew Oleśnicki was royalist and supported idea of hereditary monarchy then Jagiellons would not see a reason to keep Lithuania (which was their hereditary realm to the end of dynasty) as separate from Poland as possible.
 
Basileus_Komnenos

Basileus_Komnenos

Jan Olbracht said:
If bishop cardinal Zbigniew Oleśnicki was royalist and supported idea of hereditary monarchy then Jagiellons would not see a reason to keep Lithuania (which was their hereditary realm to the end of dynasty) as separate from Poland as possible.
Click to expand...
So supposing such a unitary state existed, how would it this impact Europe?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Jan Olbracht said:
If bishop cardinal Zbigniew Oleśnicki was royalist and supported idea of hereditary monarchy then Jagiellons would not see a reason to keep Lithuania (which was their hereditary realm to the end of dynasty) as separate from Poland as possible.
Click to expand...

So please clarify the actual historical significance of Oleśnicki for me. Was he influential in the Polish portion of the union, and a supporter of szlachta rights over royal rights, and this led to defining constitutional arrangement for the Commonwealth that made it both federal and aristocrat-led and elective throughout? Whereas prior to the Commonwealth the Polish-Lithuanian Union was a personal union with a Jagiellonian hereditary monarchy in the east, and an elective monarchy in the west?
 

Jan Olbracht

raharris1973 said:
So please clarify the actual historical significance of Oleśnicki for me. Was he influential in the Polish portion of the union, and a supporter of szlachta rights over royal rights, and this led to defining constitutional arrangement for the Commonwealth that made it both federal and aristocrat-led and elective throughout? Whereas prior to the Commonwealth the Polish-Lithuanian Union was a personal union with a Jagiellonian hereditary monarchy in the east, and an elective monarchy in the west?
Click to expand...
During late years of Jogaila's reign nobility was divided between supporters of hereditary rights of Jogaila's sons to the Polish throne and supporters of elective monarchy. Unfortunately for Jogaila Zbigniew Oleśnicki, bishop of Cracow and most influental member of Church's hierarchy in Poland (who was also very talented man and good agitator) supported the latter. If Oleśnicki keeps King's side then Jagiellons would be hereditary rulers of both Poland and Lithuania and would have nothing against tightening the union. But Lithuanians would still want to keep GDL as separate from Poland as possible, IOTL it was Muscovite pressure that eventually forced Lithuanians to accept real union, thus centralization would still be problematic, although less than IOTL
 

HalfRottenHerring

Seems like Sweden would have a bad time. A Poland firing on full would do much better in their confrontations I assume.
Could this result in Sigismund on one of his heirs enforcing a personal union on Sweden?

Although would this maybe result in Sweden, Denmark and Russia teaming up in a inverted GNW to beat on Poland?
 

Polish Eagle

Depends on when it centralizes. Centralization under the Jagiellons could make Poland more appealing for Henry III if/when he succeeds the last Jagiellon--so now you have the United Kingdom of Poland-Lithuania firmly in the French camp from 1573 on. If instead we have centralization under Stefan Bathory/heirs (either a miraculous pregnancy for Anna Jagiellon, or she conveniently dies shortly after his coronation, allowing him to remarry and sire an heir, and possibly crush a Lithuanian uprising in the process), we would see a Poland-Lithuania that might formally annex Prussia and so prevent that kingdom's rise to power. If Sigismund III achieves the fabled centralization, then the Cossack Uprising and Swedish Deluge might both be mitigated or neutralized, and with them Poland-Lithuania's terminal decline from Lubomirski's Rokosz onward.

A lesser-discussed possibility is Sigismund II dissolving the monarchy entirely and creating a much more explicitly-constitutional Republic with a much more potent central Sejm. With the threat of royal centralization removed, the szlachta could, in theory, waste a lot less energy hampering central authority. That would be completely new factor in European politics--for one, there is no longer a Polish throne to involve in wars of succession. For another, it might serve as an example to follow for other European polities...
 

Vinization

Couldn't Sigismund III do it? IIRC he wanted to but the Zebrzydowski rebellion stopped him even though his army won the Battle of Guzów which was relatively bloodless for a battle (total number casualties for both armies combined was just 200). Could the king impose his will over the szlachta and create a hereditary monarchy after a more decisive, crushing victory?
 

Ficboy

Banned
Let's just say that a centralized Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth will butterfly not just its partition but its Butt Monkey status in World War I and World War II entirely.
 

Analytical Engine

Ficboy said:
Let's just say that a centralized Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth will butterfly not just its partition but its Butt Monkey status in World War I and World War II entirely.
Click to expand...

It would butterfly away WWI and WWII entirely.

A centralised PLC could be a significant military power in the region.
 

Cavesnail

One serious problem even a centralised PLC will face is economic decline. Throughout its history it was an extremely agrarian economy, with its livelihood being critically dependent on the price of grain. And with the Columbian Exchange kicking in, grain is only going to get cheaper. If this PLC is going to survive the 19th century, it needs silesian coal and iron, and the capital to exploit them. I'm not sure where it'll get that.
 
Osman Aga

Osman Aga

Banned
Basileus_Komnenos said:
Assuming Poland-Lithuania manages to pull a Capet and gradually normalize the idea of hereditary succession (much like what happened in the HRE for the Habsburgs), and centralize into more of a united state, what would be the geopolitical ramifications of such an entity of a centralized Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth? What type of Great Power would it be? How would the other European states react to it? What would the PLC look like in terms of economic development, military power, diplomatic reputation, etc. ? What sort of internal political development and structure would it have? Would it evolve similar to the Danish or French monarchical systems which were able to transition into an absolute monarchical nation-state, or would it develop more like the UK/Hungary into something of a Constitutional Monarchy?
Click to expand...

When? That is also important...
 
Basileus_Komnenos

Basileus_Komnenos

Osman Aga said:
When? That is also important...
Click to expand...
I think any pod works. Though one I had in mind was during the reign of Vladislaus IV. He rule brought some stability to Poland prior to the Deluge. Plus around the 17th Century during the Deluge, states like Denmark were able to transition from and aristocratic elective monarchy to a Constitutionally Absolute Hereditary Monarchy.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top