What are the chances of gunpowder being discovered?

This may be in the wrong forum, but...........
What are the chances of gunpowder being discovered?
Most TLs seem to have it pop up more or less at the same time as OTL, without explanation, but honestly, what are the chances of it happening? I mean, from my understanding, it was a complete accident!
So, with a POD pre-discovery, Where? When? Who? What? How? should gunpowder be discovered?
 
Personally I would not be surprised if something like gunpowder was discovered/invented more than once. The reason I say that is priests/shamans using things in ritual may of found that using certain ground powders added to the ffect of rituals. And if they never told anyone else how to make it............................. But on an "industrial" scale, then things have to progress to a certain point for all of the rerlated infrastructure to be there
 
I'm not a chemist (and a quick check on wikipedia confirms at least in my mind what I'm about to advance) but it seems pretty easy to invent it. The actual formula for blackpowder (the easiest to make and most primitive form of gunpowder) is pretty simple, a 3 2 1 ratio of Saltpetre, Charcoal and Sulfur. The chemical components aren't thaaaat hard to find in nature (saltpetre occurs naturally from decomposing urine, Charcoal is well burnt wood, and sulfur is available where ever there are veins of it or volcanic activity). The key is putting them all together to make a boom. It appears that (and this is my opinion and not a scholarly one, so feel free to debate it) that it appeared first in China, then independantly in the Arab world where it may have gotten passed to Western Europe (some scholars suggest that it came with the mongols to the Arab world, some say it was independant. Given how inventive the Arabs were when it came to chemicals, I'm going with the independent side). So in answer to your question, feel free to put it into any TL at any time there is sufficient scholarly experimentation going on to make it possible (
 
The actual formula for blackpowder (the easiest to make and most primitive form of gunpowder) is pretty simple, a 3 2 1 ratio of Saltpetre, Charcoal and Sulfur.
Err.. 75:15:10 no?

And saltpetre is easy enough to get in ounce/tens of grams quantities, but tonne lots takes a fair bit of work...
 
Err.. 75:15:10 no?

There appears to be some leeway in the mixture."Give me charcoal to the measure two..."

And saltpetre is easy enough to get in ounce/tens of grams quantities, but tonne lots takes a fair bit of work...

Industrial production is hard, but if you know you need it, solutions can be found. Even if you have to import the stuff from India. The main question is how you'd discover it - and that's not that unlikely. The thing about sulfur and saltpetre is that both do interesting things when you introduce them to fire. Any culture with a tradition of fooling around with strange substances to see what happens will sooner or later end up putting them together. Ground charcoal is good for so many applications it's not funny any more, so using it as a fuel is perfectly natural. At that point you don't get much more than a spectacular 'foomph', but that will be remembered. Maybe someone needs things that make flashes and smoke.

What it is good for is quite another story, though. It could well end up like America did in the Middle Ages. Sure, it's there, nifty, but really, what good is it?
 
I'm not a chemist (and a quick check on wikipedia confirms at least in my mind what I'm about to advance) but it seems pretty easy to invent it. The actual formula for blackpowder (the easiest to make and most primitive form of gunpowder) is pretty simple, a 3 2 1 ratio of Saltpetre, Charcoal and Sulfur. The chemical components aren't thaaaat hard to find in nature (saltpetre occurs naturally from decomposing urine, Charcoal is well burnt wood, and sulfur is available where ever there are veins of it or volcanic activity). The key is putting them all together to make a boom. It appears that (and this is my opinion and not a scholarly one, so feel free to debate it) that it appeared first in China, then independantly in the Arab world where it may have gotten passed to Western Europe (some scholars suggest that it came with the mongols to the Arab world, some say it was independant. Given how inventive the Arabs were when it came to chemicals, I'm going with the independent side). So in answer to your question, feel free to put it into any TL at any time there is sufficient scholarly experimentation going on to make it possible (

That's just it, the Muslims (and it was Persians and Arabs both) were good with chemicals. Very good. But they still didn't stumble across for centuries so that very thing makes me think it did migrate from the east though maybe not with the Mongols (perhaps they popularized it?). It could be something like the wheel, invented once (or twice) and then simply spreading. Good link though, definitely want to read up on that TL.
 
That's just it, the Muslims (and it was Persians and Arabs both) were good with chemicals. Very good. But they still didn't stumble across for centuries so that very thing makes me think it did migrate from the east though maybe not with the Mongols (perhaps they popularized it?). It could be something like the wheel, invented once (or twice) and then simply spreading. Good link though, definitely want to read up on that TL.

How about a kind of mix and match? The concept of a powder that goes boom or probably more likely poof comes to the Arabs from connections to the East be it Mongols or trade but the actual formula was somthing they had to discover for themselves.
 
How about a kind of mix and match? The concept of a powder that goes boom or probably more likely poof comes to the Arabs from connections to the East be it Mongols or trade but the actual formula was somthing they had to discover for themselves.
The process in my TL will probably be an equivalent book to Wujing Zongyao and fireworks via the Chola to the Arabs (and Iberians) via Basra or some Indian port.
 
Crucial factor - saltpetre

A mixture of saltpetre crystals from a compost heap, ground charcoal and flowers of sulphur would go "Poof!" but that's mainly due to bad mixing and impurities in the saltpetre.

A recipe from the 1600s speaks of 'thrice dissolved saltpetre', the solution being evaporated by a process similar to brine boiling, then redissolved and evaporated again. The first stage would have got rid of unreacted urine and solids, the second may have removed dissolved salt (halite) by removal of crystals during evaporation. The third I'm not sure about.

Mixing is a bit more complex - the greater the degree of mixing with a soft charcoal, the better the joint reaction that makes the bang. By the late 1800s, the French had made poudre brun, with the charcoal being calcined rye straw. The actual mixing was done using metal wheels revolving in leather-protected circular troughs, giving compression without friction. I have seen three actual examples of these units. An alternative (still used in Spain) was the ball mill, with rotating barrels holding the mixture and oak balls.

The point about this is that getting to gunpowder could follow a number of trails - sulphur and charcoal as a stomach powder, mixed with purified nitre (saltpetre). Alternatively, consider one of half a dozen possible Greek Fire mixes, with oil, saltpetre and sulphur, but with charcoal substituted for a more stable mix, more portable on land. Sulphur and salpetre together are the basis for flare mixtures, used in fireworks and other items. As sulphur is more expensive than charcoal, again there is the possibility of substitution and discovery of a bang.

Hope this helps.
 
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