What African colonies could have been kept in European hands?

Could we potentially have Angola remain Portuguese? If I remember correctly, the Portuguese had already been quite successful in driving out rebel groups so could we see Angola remain attached to Lisbon as an Overseas Province?

Maybe, but they would need 1) major economic and military support from other nations, and 2) to let everything else go. Even then it's iffy

By 1974 Portugal had definitely won the war in Angola, was clearly winning in Mozambique and had reached a stalemate in Guinea-Bissau. If we conveniently handwave the Carnation Revolution, Portugal could technically keep its African colonies without ditching anything except perhaps Guinea.

That said, you can't just handwave away the revolution. Popular support for colonialism and the Estado Novo regime was practically non-existant by that time.

You can save the entire Portuguese Empire, but you need a 1940s POD (latest)
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Avoid WW1, and the Age of Empires would likely still be going.

If you still want to have WW1 and maybe WW2 and ask this question, it becomes much more limited. You will need either a near majority White Settler population or allowing the natives full access to society.

  • The French with Algeria could have some potential if citizenship and rights are extended to all earlier with heavy investment. Say after being weakened by WW1, it was decide tight integration with France was required.
  • Someone mentioned Angola. Maybe 1/3 of the mountains if a focused area for European settlement.
  • I think a smaller South Africa with population transfers. Maybe the Cape only.
  • Southwest Africa is small enough it is manageable. Not that many people there.
  • There are a few other areas that are good for white settlement (no malaria, no sleeping sickness) but each of these has issues. Zimbabwe is so deep in interior. Mountains of Cameroon have little else arguing for them.
  • Finally, Islands. It is easy to flip the population of an Island. So say in some ATL, the UK decide Zanzibar not Aden was it main naval base in western Indian Ocean. Might still have it today, or might be USA naval base. Sao Tome in Atlantic might go same way

Again, lot easier if avoid WW1 or at least have a quick win in WW1.
 
Portugal
Angola, or at least part thereof. Most of the Portuguese Troops fighting in Angola were Angolans loyal to Portugal.
Cabinda (technically not Angola).
Cape Verde
Sao tome e Principle
The Bijagos Archipelago of Guinea-Bissau (the mainland, not so much).
Mozambique (or at least the southernmost portion)

France
Algeria (maybe)
Djibouti
Gabon
Congo-Brazzaville.

Spain
Spanish Sahara
Rio Muni
Bioko and Anobon

Britain
Zanzibar
Gambia
Sierra Leone

Italy
Libya
Eritrea
 
What African colonies could have been kept in European hands?

In the long run: None, except may be a few islands or city-states.

With the political and sociological climate in post-WWII Europe, eventually everyone will demand that all colonies should be given equal status to the 'motherland' and all of its inhabitants should be given the same rights as their European counterparts. So in the end it would come down to a choice between loosing a colony or gaining twice their number of citizens all of them with the right to vote and to travel while being still culturally and visually different from their voting base. So you are caught between two bad choices: keep your colony disenfranchised and gain the ire of the rest of the world or give them equal rights and have them vote you out of office. Just offloading the colony into independence might we'll be the easiest choice.

IRL, it is telling that all colonies, protectorates or overseas territories still in existence are all small islands or city states. Places who's whole population could decide on a whim to relocate to your capital and still not influence the ethnic makeup of your country nor the next election results....
 
By 1974 Portugal had definitely won the war in Angola, was clearly winning in Mozambique and had reached a stalemate in Guinea-Bissau. If we conveniently handwave the Carnation Revolution, Portugal could technically keep its African colonies without ditching anything except perhaps Guinea.

That said, you can't just handwave away the revolution. Popular support for colonialism and the Estado Novo regime was practically non-existant by that time.

You can save the entire Portuguese Empire, but you need a 1940s POD (latest)

Popular support of colonialism was fading yes, except for the 800,000 (10% of the population) living in / working In / occupying the colonies...
It’s more support for the colonial war and the dictatorship which was fading

But yes I agree, a norton de matos victory in 1949 is the latest way to bring the settlement level and reforms required to keep the colonies, or more likely , some coastal part of Angola and Mozambique
 
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Popular support of colonialism was fading yes, except for the 800,000 (10% of the population) living in / working In / occupying the colonies...

Sure. But those 800,000 aren't going to convince the rest that it's a good idea to send all of the country's young men to die in Africa just for the sake of preserving an anachronistic colonial empire ruled by a crypto-fascistic dictatorship that was keeping the mainland underdeveloped and isolated from the rest of the western world...

But yes I agree, a norton de matos victory in 1949 is the latest way to bring the settlement level and reforms required to keep the colonies, or more likely , some coastal part of Angola and Mozambique

Yes. Norton de Matos is a very interesting figure for this. He was democratic colonialist and, having been governor of Angolo, was well aware that the Portuguese colonies were no where near secure. He seems like the right man to take the necessary measures for the colonies to be preserved: promoting mass-settlement and increasing the rights of the native populations.

However, he cannot win an election which was very obviously rigged...

The only way for him to be placed in power is through a coup.
 
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