United States goes communist, extends influence over the rest of the New World by promoting revolutions throughout the hemisphere. Before long, the Western world is divided into a capitalist Europe and a communist Western Hemisphere.
This got me thinking about the most interesting alternate 1930s ideas and their affect on WWII for their affect here.
This has a few different PoDs that I'll try to link together but might not perfectly, just to give a warning:
- Trotsky defeats Stalin in the struggle to be Lenin's successor and spends the period from 1924-1938 preparing for an all out war with Europe.
- FDR is either successfully assassinated or a series of events beginning with a change of politics in 1920s Russia results in him not winning the Democratic Nomination (which I think is easier to shift than the election where he won by about 18% of the vote)
- Without the New Deal, the Great Depression gets
even worse in the United States and the short-lived Technocracy Movement gains traction
- Over the course of the four years from 1932 until 1936, Republicans and Democrats alike begin to affiliate themselves with the Technocracy Movement and each side endorses a Technocracy candidate (pick from any number of competent administrators at the time with radical ideas), who runs his own campaign against two establishment candidates and wins
- In 1938, the USSR begins World War II in Europe by invading its neighbors in the Baltics and Poland
- Germany, which just took over Czechoslovakia prepares for war with the USSR, along with Fascist Italy, which just took over Albania, begin to assist Poland in fighting the USSR
- With the Technocrats in power in the United States, they begin to make moves that are accused of being communist and fascist as they take control of the crumbled economy and defy a lot of government traditions, becoming more and more authoritarian over time
- The Technocratic US Administration is an odd mix of economic imperialism and support of workers, all in the name of a functioning economy, so they export their ideals to Latin America to bring them in line with their views, assisting in economic development while basically guaranteeing the dominance of American companies
- As WWII in Europe continues, fascism is looked on as the only hope and the traditional democratic governments in the UK and France are seen as weak and ineffective, strengthening their own fascist movements
- To try to stave off this rise, the UK and France join the fascists in fighting the USSR, but they commit little to the war effort, which is turning into a slaughter for both sides and mainly staying within Poland
- The US, not interested in the goings on in Europe, continues to have its economy grow into the 1940s, when Japan attacks
- Japan is not allied with Germany and Italy ITTL because they have no need for Japan and are more focused on building a cohesive block with France and Britain
- As The American-Japanese War continues, Japan becomes desperate for allies and attacks the USSR to try to get a European ally as they try to construe the Technocrats as being communists of another name
- It does not succeed and only helps in slightly improving relations between the US and USSR, while they don't have friendly relations, they do cooperate in the Pacific Theater as they both want Japan weakened if/when the island nation is defeated
At this point, one of two things can happen to divide the West:
1) The Europeans win against the USSR and fascism is credited for it, helping other fascist regimes rise in France and the UK. Seeing the Technocracies of the New World as a lesser sort of philosophy (generally puts merit before anything, not very nationalistic, not about racial superiority), and close to communism, the fascists are hostile and a cold war develops. The fascists would not be an alliance bloc like NATO or the Warsaw Pact, their ideology doesn't really allow for international integration and cooperation as strong as that.
2) The USSR wins against all of the major powers of Europe and Europe becomes a series of communist nations. This would result in two blocs forming, the Technocracies of the New World forming one and the communist nations of Europe forming another. I think this scenario is more plausible and has more going for it, as it could probably end up with a more balanced Cold War and a definitive end to economic liberalism. It would also have both sides be somewhat democratic (and neither be entirely), with the Soviets actually having power in the Soviet Union (if Trotsky follows the philosophy that he spoke about) and those with technical prowess in government being given significant authority in the American system.
Actually, going off that second one, if enough cooperation was going on between the USSR and the US throughout the Second World War, you could end up with no real Cold War happening at all. There would be tensions between two really strong powers, but it might not be so much a focus of the politics and cultures of both of these nations ITTL. The USSR would also still follow perpetual revolution at the end of the war, which would definitely cause issues, but maybe Trotsky turns away from it later, considers Europe enough, doesn't believe the rest of the world is developed or within reach of the international revolution, or he dies and whoever his successor is believes in one of those things.
If you don't want the Soviets to win so conclusively, maybe have them fail to take Britain, which is a strongly fascist holdout lead by Mosley and holds radical views and rhetoric (it'd be terrifying if such an anti-communist nation surrounded by commies and ocean were to get a nuclear bomb).
This could also lead to one of my favorite post-WW2 timeline ideas, having no real Cold War happening among developed countries and have most the conflict be between them and developing countries, who see their unwanted economic and political presence in their land as colonialism continuing. Imagine how different the modern narrative of the rise of China and India would be if those two nations were the sworn enemies of the US and a surviving USSR.
