West papua crisis leads to war

[cjc]

So I was reading @Riain Australian TL https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-bureaucratic-reorganisation-tl.393933/page-1

And I noticed a crisis i had never heard of before.
In the early 60's west papua was still on the hands of the duch and Indonesia wanted them out and did several things they would latter try in the Malaysian confrontation (air dropping solders to try starting up a garila war mainly, not really any more successful then during the confrontation to). But Indonesia was aperintly ready to launch a 13,000 man invasion gust 2 days! After the duch agreed to give up the island after strong pressure by the US government.

So here's the idea what happens if the invasion happens a week earlier, or the duch government decides to dig in there heals ithere or.

1) do the Australian/ duch forces have the strength to beat back the invasion (i assum they do they had 2 light carriers in the area, then again Indonesia had some new Soviet fighters and bombers)

2) if the invasion is a complete fiasco what happens with Indonesia, dose this butterfly the Malaysian confrontation, can sukarno survive a huge defeat. What happens in the very nations in the area, like Australia, UK, Netherlands, USA.

 

[GSD310]

It's difficult to say how this invasion would turn out and what would happen but I doubt that it would be a success. The one thing that's evident from reading even the official Indonesian Army version of events is that the operation to take West Irian/West Papua/Dutch New Guinea was a rush job. The War Theatre Command was set up in January 1962, Sukarno set the deadline for West Irian to become a part of Indonesia by 17th August 1962 (Independence Day), and the first 2 months was spent just trying to set up a fully functioning command structure. Then there were issues like Soviet fighters and bombers coming in but the personnel hadn't been properly trained or gained the necessary experience. The orders for the operation itself was issued in June 1962 to be conducted in August 1962. So two months' preparation for what would have been a land, sea, and air invasion. It's amazing enough that the TNI managed to be in a position to launch the invasion but whether it would have been successful when the troops land in West Irian would be another story.

If it became a protracted war, I think it does butterfly away the Confrontation with Malaysia. One thing that made it possible for the Confrontation to occur was that Indonesia had already gained West Irian.

One thing that I'm pretty certain of is that Indonesia will not have a Soeharto regime if the invasion of West Irian went ahead. In OTL, Soeharto was the War Theatre Commander for this operation and it was the biggest assignment of his career up to that point. Because this operation did not go ahead, Soeharto returned to obscurity and stayed under everyone's radar until 1965. If the operation went ahead and was successful, Soeharto would have gained fame and prominence and may end up being one of the generals kidnapped in October 1965. If not successful, it would have been the end of Soeharto's military career. Either way, Soeharto's regime will be butterflied away.

 

[cjc]

It's difficult to say how this invasion would turn out and what would happen but I doubt that it would be a success. The one thing that's evident from reading even the official Indonesian Army version of events is that the operation to take West Irian/West Papua/Dutch New Guinea was a rush job. The War Theatre Command was set up in January 1962, Sukarno set the deadline for West Irian to become a part of Indonesia by 17th August 1962 (Independence Day), and the first 2 months was spent just trying to set up a fully functioning command structure. Then there were issues like Soviet fighters and bombers coming in but the personnel hadn't been properly trained or gained the necessary experience. The orders for the operation itself was issued in June 1962 to be conducted in August 1962. So two months' preparation for what would have been a land, sea, and air invasion. It's amazing enough that the TNI managed to be in a position to launch the invasion but whether it would have been successful when the troops land in West Irian would be another story.

If it became a protracted war, I think it does butterfly away the Confrontation with Malaysia. One thing that made it possible for the Confrontation to occur was that Indonesia had already gained West Irian.

One thing that I'm pretty certain of is that Indonesia will not have a Soeharto regime if the invasion of West Irian went ahead. In OTL, Soeharto was the War Theatre Commander for this operation and it was the biggest assignment of his career up to that point. Because this operation did not go ahead, Soeharto returned to obscurity and stayed under everyone's radar until 1965. If the operation went ahead and was successful, Soeharto would have gained fame and prominence and may end up being one of the generals kidnapped in October 1965. If not successful, it would have been the end of Soeharto's military career. Either way, Soeharto's regime will be butterflied away.

Ya, this is really not looking good for Indonesia being successful here. And if it isn't I doubt the war would last long, the duch wanted to make west papua independent and haveing a option to join Indonesia as part of the plesapit would likely lead to a peace, if anything i have a hard time seeing the Indonesian being able to continue the war long if the invasion turns into a shit show.

Would there be a earlier coup agenst Sukarno if this invasion fails do you think?

 

[Father Maryland]

What forces did the Dutch have in West Papua.

 

[GSD310]

Would there be a earlier coup agenst Sukarno if this invasion fails do you think?

I don't think there would be a coup if the invasion failed because of Sukarno's prestige as the nation's first president and because the economy was not as bad as it was in 1965-1966. I do think that there will be enough loss of prestige that Sukarno does not become President for Life (In OTL he becomes President for Life in 1963) and the jockeying for succession to begin.

 

[cjc]

What forces did the Dutch have in West Papua.

From what I can find (this is from Wikipedia btb)
3 marine company's
5 infrantry batlions
Or about 1,400 marines and 10,000 solders (aperintly that dosnt seem to add up with the numbers above but like I said Wikipedia)
24 hawker hunter jets
11 Neptune's
Plus
HNLMS Karel Doorman with get this 14 tbf avengers and 10 sea hawks
Along with
5 destroyers
2 frigates
3 submarines
Not includeding any Australian or new Zealand forces wich i would think would add up to about a RAR battalion and a tank squadron with maby a new Zealand artliarly battery. Along with this the Australian fleet wich had
hmas melbourne with sea venoms and gannits
3 destroyers
And other ships that I can't find numbers on

Also the duch had about 1,000 local volunteers

Agenst this we have
A paradrop of about 7,000 solders (i doubt this would have gone well consdering how bad the other attempts had been both in West Papua and during the Malaysian confrontation whint)
4,500 marines
13,000 regulars
30 mig-15
50 mig-17
10 mig-19
20 mig-21
22 il-28
26 tu-16 with 12 armd with as-1 anti ship missiles
Along with a fleet of about 60 ships including
A Sverdlov-class cruiser
12 wiscky class submarines
12 komar class missle boats
Plus others but most would have been transports for the invasion


Now the duch knew about the invasion before hand (that why they surrendered when they did)

Honestly now actually looking at the numbers that is a very significant force to fight off with 1st gen jets and ww2 bombers.

 

[Gillan1220]

From what I can find (this is from Wikipedia btb)
3 marine company's
5 infrantry batlions
Or about 1,400 marines and 10,000 solders (aperintly that dosnt seem to add up with the numbers above but like I said Wikipedia)
24 hawker hunter jets
11 Neptune's
Plus
HNLMS Karel Doorman with get this 14 tbf avengers and 10 sea hawks
Along with
5 destroyers
2 frigates
3 submarines
Not includeding any Australian or new Zealand forces wich i would think would add up to about a RAR battalion and a tank squadron with maby a new Zealand artliarly battery. Along with this the Australian fleet wich had
hmas melbourne with sea venoms and gannits
3 destroyers
And other ships that I can't find numbers on

Also the duch had about 1,000 local volunteers

Agenst this we have
A paradrop of about 7,000 solders (i doubt this would have gone well consdering how bad the other attempts had been both in West Papua and during the Malaysian confrontation whint)
4,500 marines
13,000 regulars
30 mig-15
50 mig-17
10 mig-19
20 mig-21
22 il-28
26 tu-16 with 12 armd with as-1 anti ship missiles
Along with a fleet of about 60 ships including
A Sverdlov-class cruiser
12 wiscky class submarines
12 komar class missle boats
Plus others but most would have been transports for the invasion


Now the duch knew about the invasion before hand (that why they surrendered when they did)

Honestly now actually looking at the numbers that is a very significant force to fight off with 1st gen jets and ww2 bombers.

Is this based on the ORBAT of Operation Trikora?

 

[cjc]

Is this based on the ORBAT of Operation Trikora?

Basically, most complete i can find anyway, would much appreciate a better source honestly.

 

[Gillan1220]

Basically, most complete i can find anyway, would much appreciate a better source honestly.

I think you can try this. It's a long though.

https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/219667/1/WP-SDSC-361.pdf

 

[cjc]

I think you can try this. It's a long though.

https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/219667/1/WP-SDSC-361.pdf

Umm... I think you got the wrong one, this talks a lot about the west papua insurgency in the late 90's. Still pretty interesting.

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

It would fail so badly like Operation Sealion even Hitler would laugh about it

 

[Die Oulike Bloutongskink]

It depends on who will control the sea, although the Dutch have the advantage in here by the virtue of a slightly better trained forces and not having to support a complicated multi pronged amphibious and airborne assault. I think the Indonesians were disadvantaged and not experienced enough to conduct a full scale amphibious landing nor do they have enough money to sustain a long term full scale war. Most of those new equipment that they purchased from the USSR has just been delivered in the previous year and despite bombastic propaganda from Indonesians, I doubt their efficiency in such a short time although they are potentially dangerous for Dutch vessels with inadequate air support. The Dutch did sank an Indonesian ship in a confrontation and attempts by the Indonesians to land troops to infiltrate key points in Western West New Guinea, particularly around Fakfak and Sorong where the local ethnic groups like the Ihas, Waigeos, Mois and Onins, supported unification with Indonesia, was rendered ineffective because of the lack of air support from Indonesia. However one must note that the Indonesians did not try to conduct a full assault on West New Guinea/Papua OTL because that would have to wait until mid-1963 and hence why OTL they refrained from doing that.

It would fail so badly like Operation Sealion even Hitler would laugh about it

Most likely to fail indeed but not necessarily as it depends on what kind of support that Soekarno could get from both the US and USSR plus also whether if Australia will enter the foray. If they do then the odds will be with the Dutch as the Indonesian troops simply won't be able to effectively counter threats from both the east and the south. However, West Guinea/Papua at that time was not Britain nor will the Dutch be fighting close to their own supply line. The Dutch were dependent on American support and although their economy was not as dire as the Indonesian one, Dutch voters themselves were not happy to send troops in another costly colonial war after the fiasco of the Dutch military operation during the late 40's in Indonesia.

 

[Kerguelen]

Yeah even if the invasion fails, the Dutch aren't going to send an army into Jakarta. Chances are they end up facing even more pressure from the US to just give up Papua and decide that another war isn't worth it.

 

[Gillan1220]

Yeah even if the invasion fails, the Dutch aren't going to send an army into Jakarta. Chances are they end up facing even more pressure from the US to just give up Papua and decide that another war isn't worth it.

Considering this was the time where Asian and Africa saw decolonization, I could see the U.S. doing just such.

 

[Die Oulike Bloutongskink]

Considering this was the time where Asian and Africa saw decolonization, I could see the U.S. doing just such.

The US did exactly that OTL before there was a chance for an open scale war to happen, they don't support any Dutch colonial ambition over there.

 

[Gillan1220]

The US did exactly that OTL before there was a chance for an open scale war to happen, they don't support any Dutch colonial ambition over there.

The same how the U.S. pressured France and Britain during the Suez Crisis in 1956. Or how it was originally pressuring the French to grant independence to Indochina and Algeria after WWII.

 

[cjc]

Considering this was the time where Asian and Africa saw decolonization, I could see the U.S. doing just such.

The US did exactly that OTL before there was a chance for an open scale war to happen, they don't support any Dutch colonial ambition over there.

Considering this was the time where Asian and Africa saw decolonization, I could see the U.S. doing just such.

Yeah even if the invasion fails, the Dutch aren't going to send an army into Jakarta. Chances are they end up facing even more pressure from the US to just give up Papua and decide that another war isn't worth it.

Thing is that the duch were perfectly willing to leave, and let the people there have independence (indeed the duch were planing to be gone by 1970) its gust that Indonesia would not allow independence, similar to Malaysia a few years later.

Also aperintly later on people have claimed that the submarines and tupalive bombers where being mand by ussr personnel like what they did in Korea and vetnam wich sertenly changes the odds if true.

 

[Die Oulike Bloutongskink]

Thing is that the duch were perfectly willing to leave, and let the people there have independence (indeed the duch were planing to be gone by 1970) its gust that Indonesia would not allow independence, similar to Malaysia a few years later.

Also aperintly later on people have claimed that the submarines and tupalive bombers where being mand by ussr personnel like what they did in Korea and vetnam wich sertenly changes the odds if true.

The rigged and forced referendum by the Indonesians aside, the thing about West Papua is that the ethnic groups in the westernmost island, particularly in the Bird Head's Peninsula favoured unification with Indonesia and they were the ones that supported Indonesia the most. This is logical since the peninsula has strong ties with the Moluccan islands, especially to the aristocracy and traders of Tidore and Ternate with whom they traditionally traded with. Most of Hollandia (now Jayapura), the largest city of the territory AFAIK either supported the independence or even for continued loose association with the Netherlands but the local elites in Fakfak and Manokwari supported Indonesia, with Izaac Hindom, one of the more prominent native local politician in the nascent territory (the Dutch only gave opportunities for local Papuans to advance further in the bureaucracy after the failure of their involvement in Indonesia) later being awarded for his support to the Indonesian clandestine operation with the governorship of Irian Jaya, the new name of Western New Guinea after the Indonesian forcefully integrated the whole territory.

This is also problematic since the Dutch themselves has favoured the natives of Biak Islands and the northeastern half of Western New Guinea for the transitionary administration, seeing them as more loyal and with less ties with the Moluccas (by extension, Indonesia) over those from the Bird Head's Peninsula in key positions. If the Dutch does not address this problem (and OTL they didn't) and West Papua were to declare independence, the elites from the western half might plan to secede unilaterally and join Indonesia.

Mind you, a united "Papuan" idea was not popular in the western half of the island until the excess and corruption of Indonesian rule exacerbated it alongside with the arrival of Papuans from the eastern half of West Papua in the coastal cities of Sorong and Manokwari. There is no single Papuan language that could work as a lingua franca and the lingua franca then and now is Papuan Malay, a Malay creole developed from the Tidore Malay creole. Dutch was never popular as a language in there and even the Dutch administration has never made it a point to teach the language to the bulk of West Papuans in missionary schools.

I have no knowledge about Soviet vessels/aircrafts manned by Soviet pilots themselves but logically that's improbable. There were Soviet trainers in Indonesia for sure but what's the benefit for the USSR to openly antagonise the US in Indonesia which will backfire and prompt the US to support further Dutch presence?

----
Also cjc probably you could use an autocorrect of some sort? It's not that I can't understand your points but you do have quite some typos

 

[cjc]

The rigged and forced referendum by the Indonesians aside, the thing about West Papua is that the ethnic groups in the westernmost island, particularly in the Bird Head's Peninsula favoured unification with Indonesia and they were the ones that supported Indonesia the most. This is logical since the peninsula has strong ties with the Moluccan islands, especially to the aristocracy and traders of Tidore and Ternate with whom they traditionally traded with. Most of Hollandia (now Jayapura), the largest city of the territory AFAIK either supported the independence or even for continued loose association with the Netherlands but the local elites in Fakfak and Manokwari supported Indonesia, with Izaac Hindom, one of the more prominent native local politician in the nascent territory (the Dutch only gave opportunities for local Papuans to advance further in the bureaucracy after the failure of their involvement in Indonesia) later being awarded for his support to the Indonesian clandestine operation with the governorship of Irian Jaya, the new name of Western New Guinea after the Indonesian forcefully integrated the whole territory.

This is also problematic since the Dutch themselves has favoured the natives of Biak Islands and the northeastern half of Western New Guinea for the transitionary administration, seeing them as more loyal and with less ties with the Moluccas (by extension, Indonesia) over those from the Bird Head's Peninsula in key positions. If the Dutch does not address this problem (and OTL they didn't) and West Papua were to declare independence, the elites from the western half might plan to secede unilaterally and join Indonesia.

Mind you, a united "Papuan" idea was not popular in the western half of the island until the excess and corruption of Indonesian rule exacerbated it alongside with the arrival of Papuans from the eastern half of West Papua in the coastal cities of Sorong and Manokwari. There is no single Papuan language that could work as a lingua franca and the lingua franca then and now is Papuan Malay, a Malay creole developed from the Tidore Malay creole. Dutch was never popular as a language in there and even the Dutch administration has never made it a point to teach the language to the bulk of West Papuans in missionary schools.

I have no knowledge about Soviet vessels/aircrafts manned by Soviet pilots themselves but logically that's improbable. There were Soviet trainers in Indonesia for sure but what's the benefit for the USSR to openly antagonise the US in Indonesia which will backfire and prompt the US to support further Dutch presence?

----
Also cjc probably you could use an autocorrect of some sort? It's not that I can't understand your points but you do have quite some typos

Thanks for the information, what little information I can find in languages I can read only really covered duch and Australian plans not how the people actually living there felt (although the fact Indonesia had to resort to genocide to keep the island latter on seems to prove the west papuans didn't want to be a part of Indonesia)

Like I said aperintly people after the fact have claimed that Soviet officers and men were going to be used as part of the attack, dosnt really seem plosable to me (although the ussr would gain if Indonesia was perminatly separated from the west by a war) but it was claimed by a Soviet sub comander from the time so 🤷

Also English isn't my first language, trust me without autocorrect this wouldn't be redabal lol.

 

[Riain]

If the Dutch and Australians did decide to go to war I think the drastic lack of high command experience and structures would make the Australian contribution haphazard at best. At the time Australia was totally plugged into the British Commonwealth SEATO command structure, with much of the RAAF in Butterworth the RAN in the FESR and the Army committing a btn to the 28th Brigade. For example the role of the carrier HMAS Melbourne was to lead a SEATO ASW Hunter-Killer Task Force in the Sulu Sea. There was little experience of operating independently with only other ADF forces, let alone being a major component, at least an equal, with another Ally.

That said the ADF and possible Dutch forces were quite numerous and much better trained up to the Brigade/Wing/Task Group level, and the Dutch did very well when they fought the Indonesians at sea in late 1961, so I'd suggest Australian'Dutch forces would prevail and West Papua would not fall to Indonesia.