West Indies Federation-Could it survive

Caused by a thread in Chat about the 69 Rebellion.

From 1958 to 1962, a federation of British West Indies colonies existed. Known as the West Indies Federation, it was hoped that by existing as one, these mostly smaller colonies would be able to adjust better to independence than other larger ones.

Wiki has a reasonable article on it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Indies_Federation#Provinces

It also had a small military, the reformed West indies Regiment consisting of 3 infantry battalions.

Unfortunately the Federation failed, with its various members mostly becoming independent in the following years.

So, could the Federation survive? and how could it develop? Would we see a stable democracy that progresses and develops, part of the Commonwealth and friendly to the USA and Canada (my perferred outcome).

Or would it become some sort of 'failed state' further than the line, still splintering?

Any thoughts?
 
It would have been a failed state for the most part. If it had achieved some form of full sovereignty, such as a single Federation-wide customs union or freedom of movement, things COULD have been better. The problem is going to be Jamaica and Trinidad. Other than that, the WIF is probably going to fail. Now, if it became a province of Canada :)D), things could have been a bit better.
 
Well, maybe by not forcing a "West Indies Federation" identity onto the inhabitants and making it more loosely organized (Think Russian Federation), letting the peoples of the various islands keep their nationality and flag, it could have worked better. Even a simple gesture like putting stars representing each member of the Federation on the national flag could have made a difference.

Also, maybe giving the Federation immediate independence might have done something to help. And yes, leaving the larger islands of Jamaica and Trinidad out might have helped.
 
Dan1988 said:
It would have been a failed state for the most part. If it had achieved some form of full sovereignty, such as a single Federation-wide customs union or freedom of movement, things COULD have been better. The problem is going to be Jamaica and Trinidad. Other than that, the WIF is probably going to fail. Now, if it became a province of Canada (), things could have been a bit better.

What is it with this over-use of the term failed state? It is highly, highly unlikely that something like the West Indies Federation could have ended up as a failed state akin to Somalia, Afghanistan or Haiti (at times) where there are armed revolts and/or civil war with the government hardly having any control over any meaningful sections of the country. Why would it fail if it had survived? If it had survived a customs union and freedom of movement were planned to be implemented after independence from what I've read, so how could it fail and by what measure?

Maharajah said:
Well, maybe by not forcing a "West Indies Federation" identity onto the inhabitants and making it more loosely organized (Think Russian Federation), letting the peoples of the various islands keep their nationality and flag, it could have worked better. Even a simple gesture like putting stars representing each member of the Federation on the national flag could have made a difference.

Also, maybe giving the Federation immediate independence might have done something to help. And yes, leaving the larger islands of Jamaica and Trinidad out might have helped.

Firstly, a "West Indies" identity was not forced on the inhabitants. They had been playing cricket with a West Indian identity for about 30 years (unofficially for 70 years) before that federation and ever since. They also had (and still have) a joint university that was established before that federation. Plus a number of parties, trade unions and organizations had sprung up that advocated such a federation and some of those trade unions and organizations were Caribbean-wide. Thirdly some of the British colonies in the region did not join (all the ones that did, did so voluntarily). And finally the various islands did keep their flags - at the time all their flags would have been colonial ensigns.

Jason said:
Caused by a thread in Chat about the 69 Rebellion.

From 1958 to 1962, a federation of British West Indies colonies existed. Known as the West Indies Federation, it was hoped that by existing as one, these mostly smaller colonies would be able to adjust better to independence than other larger ones.

Wiki has a reasonable article on it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_In...tion#Provinces

It also had a small military, the reformed West indies Regiment consisting of 3 infantry battalions.

Unfortunately the Federation failed, with its various members mostly becoming independent in the following years.

So, could the Federation survive? and how could it develop? Would we see a stable democracy that progresses and develops, part of the Commonwealth and friendly to the USA and Canada (my perferred outcome).

Or would it become some sort of 'failed state' further than the line, still splintering?

Any thoughts?

It could have survived. From what I remember of a particularly detailed book about the region in the library the referendum turnout in Jamaica was lower than most local election turnouts up to that point and afterwards so if more people had bothered to vote in the referendum then that result could have been different (either more in favour or more against, but certainly more decisive). If we use that as a POD because the aim is for the West Indies Federation to survive as it was up to that point, then I suppose we could postulate that a stronger pro-federation showing would have given fresh impetus to its leaders and maybe spurred a few constitutional changes or agreements that would make Jamaica and Trinidad happy. Then independence would be given in May 1962 (as it was planned anyway) and a customs union and freedom of movement probably established by 1963. After that who knows, but there is one thing that probably wouldn't happen: the Marines wouldn't get to go on a tropical holiday to Grenada in 1983. As an aside, Norman Schwarzkopf's career gained a slight boost from Grenada when he was apparently promoted to deputy commander of the task force sent to Grenada (a temporary position naturally) because of his diligence as an advisor. Schwarzkopf would probably still have been promoted to Lt. General in the 1980s though who knows if it would have been at the same time.
 
Thnaks for that Chris, very interesting. Hopefully in the next few weeks I'll have some free time and I can develop this idea.

It could have survived. From what I remember of a particularly detailed book about the region in the library the referendum turnout in Jamaica was lower than most local election turnouts up to that point and afterwards so if more people had bothered to vote in the referendum then that result could have been different (either more in favour or more against, but certainly more decisive). If we use that as a POD because the aim is for the West Indies Federation to survive as it was up to that point, then I suppose we could postulate that a stronger pro-federation showing would have given fresh impetus to its leaders and maybe spurred a few constitutional changes or agreements that would make Jamaica and Trinidad happy. Then independence would be given in May 1962 (as it was planned anyway) and a customs union and freedom of movement probably established by 1963. After that who knows, but there is one thing that probably wouldn't happen: the Marines wouldn't get to go on a tropical holiday to Grenada in 1983. As an aside, Norman Schwarzkopf's career gained a slight boost from Grenada when he was apparently promoted to deputy commander of the task force sent to Grenada (a temporary position naturally) because of his diligence as an advisor. Schwarzkopf would probably still have been promoted to Lt. General in the 1980s though who knows if it would have been at the same time.
 
Just as the 'West Indies' has been successful as a Cricket Team, so the people of the region, may see the advantages of sticking together.

But to keep the sporting theme, how many gold medals etc., would a combined West Indies team have in the Olympics!??
 
An interesting idea, but what would the WIF really do in a TL, wht effect could it have for an entertaining TL?
 
Thnaks for that Chris, very interesting. Hopefully in the next few weeks I'll have some free time and I can develop this idea.

Your welcome, although to make it a really good TL, one might need to find suitable books on the West Indies, Operation Urgent Fury and Schwarzkopf and see exactly how they linked together and whether Grenada was crucial enough in Schwarzkopf's career to affect everything after 1983.

Jape said:
An interesting idea, but what would the WIF really do in a TL, wht effect could it have for an entertaining TL?

Well it depends on one's idea of "entertaining" doesn't it?:)

For some, a TL without any wars is boring. For others it can be highly entertaining. A TL like this might be interesting for the minor effects it has elsewhere (such as with Grenada and Schwarzkopf).
 
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