West Coast "sister republic"

[Eckener]

I recently relocated out to the Pacific Northwest, and have been reading up on local history. The latest book I've been getting into is Astoria: Astor and Jefferson's Lost Pacific Empire, by Peter Stark. I also recently visited Astoria on a weekend getaway, which helped further capture my attention and imagination.

In the book, the author mentions more than once how Jefferson saw the settlement of the west coast of North America to lead to the creation of a "sister republic" to the United States, instead of the USA actually claiming that land. This makes a certain amount of sense, considering how remote the Pacific Northwest was to the rest of the world at the start of the 19th century. I hadn't realized until visiting Astoria and it's maritime museum that this region was one of the last coastlines that was fully mapped by the Europeans, and just how remote it all really was for such a long time.

So, I am wondering how it might be feasible for this area...say the modern-day states of Washington and Oregon, along with British Columbia and possibly Northern California, to end up as an independent nation?

Possibly an American defeat in the war of 1812 keeps the Americans from being able to make as strong a claim? But with continued interest from private citizens and a strong mix of people still moving out there, maybe the region breaks away from Britain and forms its own nation?

I'm just spitballing, not married to that particular course. Just interested in some sort of independent state that is centered, at least initially, on the Columbia River.

 

[danteheadman]

Looking at Texas' history, I doubt that an independent state inhabited by white non-Canadians on North America would be able to resist incorporation into the USA. It was culturally and economically inevitable.

The Spanish began colonizing the coast and proselytizing to Native people there in the 1700s. It was part of Mexico before the "Bear Revolt", which was spearheaded by white people, and then the California coast was flooded with American settlers looking for gold. The Cascadian coast was next.

I don't see any POD for a "sister republic" of Anglo settlers anywhere.

 

[Eckener]

That's a fair point. I think that's why I suggested something like the USA outright losing in the War of 1812, and maybe some subsequent political instability making the country less likely to have the capability of taking over the whole continent - plus in such a scenario you might have more people wanting to leave the USA and colonize elsewhere on the continent and not be incorporated later on.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

The French never sell and somehow manage to hold on to Louisiana, bisecting the continent.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

That's a fair point. I think that's why I suggested something like the USA outright losing in the War of 1812, and maybe some subsequent political instability making the country less likely to have the capability of taking over the whole continent - plus in such a scenario you might have more people wanting to leave the USA and colonize elsewhere on the continent and not be incorporated later on.

Perhaps the terms of the War of 1812 include the USA not expanding west of a certain latitude, at least officially. However, Britain still can't stop the trickling of settlers that gets ever greater due to the gold rush. Eventually it forms it's own polity, although always under the shadow of Britain. This situation draws them close to the US, but by the time any unification could happen Cascadia has its own identity (also probably supported by Britain).

What could also help: a native state set up inbetween in the Midwest.

Possible effects could be that the US is less keen on annexing territories further West, and with the Cascadian precedent, there could be an emergent Californian Republic and Texas (latter supported by the US, but outright annexation blocked by British threat of intervention).

 

[Eckener]

The French never sell and somehow manage to hold on to Louisiana, bisecting the continent.

That would definitely shake things up. I would still imagine that American settlers would cross over into French Louisiana, and I'd imagine at some point it either does get sold or revolts, with France unable to hold things beyond New Orleans. But this would slow official American focus and keep it closer to home, with the PNW remaining farther on the periphery than it already was OTL. Independent settlers and businessmen would still be interested, but it would be more ad-hoc and more likely to develop on its own with its own identity.

Perhaps the terms of the War of 1812 include the USA not expanding west of a certain latitude, at least officially. However, Britain still can't stop the trickling of settlers that gets ever greater due to the gold rush. Eventually it forms it's own polity, although always under the shadow of Britain. This situation draws them close to the US, but by the time any unification could happen Cascadia has its own identity (also probably supported by Britain).

What could also help: a native state set up inbetween in the Midwest.

Possible effects could be that the US is less keen on annexing territories further West, and with the Cascadian precedent, there could be an emergent Californian Republic and Texas (latter supported by the US, but outright annexation blocked by British threat of intervention).

Hmm. Would this include giving up some of the land from the Louisiana Purchase? I can't see them giving all of it up, but maybe some, depending on how badly they were defeated in the War of 1812.

I think, realistically, to get an independent republic in the Cascadia region, you are looking at a pretty big balkanization of North America, with California and Texas being independent almost a given. A native state in the midwest is also intriguing, though I'm not sure exactly how that comes about. Maybe as some alternative "trail of tears" effort? If the USA is mostly bound to the land east of the Mississippi River, maybe they decide to force the eastern tribes out of the country and into the midwest?

You're also probably right that the British would definitely have a hand to play in any "independent" Cascadia.

 

[Deleted member 139407]

The French never sell and somehow manage to hold on to Louisiana, bisecting the continent.

That would definitely shake things up. I would still imagine that American settlers would cross over into French Louisiana, and I'd imagine at some point it either does get sold or revolts, with France unable to hold things beyond New Orleans. But this would slow official American focus and keep it closer to home, with the PNW remaining farther on the periphery than it already was OTL. Independent settlers and businessmen would still be interested, but it would be more ad-hoc and more likely to develop on its own with its own identity.

Hmm. Would this include giving up some of the land from the Louisiana Purchase? I can't see them giving all of it up, but maybe some, depending on how badly they were defeated in the War of 1812.

Well, President Jefferson did consider the Louisiana Purchase an overreach in his executive power; maybe have him push the negotiations to Congress. In that time, the alleged Burr Conspiracy goes on as intended, then fails miserably. This, by pure timing, sours any attempt of a US-purchase of the Louisiana territory because the French view that the US was going to attempt to steal it without pay.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

It would be very entertaining if that colonial territory became a bunch of fractious Francophone states, their equivalent to Hispanophone Latin America, though I expect it'd be like northern Mexico, a vast expanse of empty land without enough of a population. So maybe it'd require a lot more French settlers to go there and keep the Americans occupied, to prevent easy annexation or numerical domination.

 

[Eckener]

Well, President Jefferson did consider the Louisiana Purchase an overreach in his executive power; maybe have him push the negotiations to Congress. In that time, the alleged Burr Conspiracy goes on as intended, then fails miserably. This, by pure timing, sours any attempt of a US-purchase of the Louisiana territory because the French view that the US was going to attempt to steal it without pay.

Oh! That's an interesting idea! I am only vaguely familiar with the Burr Conspiracy, so I'd have to look at the details, but that could be something worth exploring, and an interesting way of blocking the USA from formally expanding west of the Mississippi

It would be very entertaining if that colonial territory became a bunch of fractious Francophone states, their equivalent to Hispanophone Latin America, though I expect it'd be like northern Mexico, a vast expanse of empty land without enough of a population. So maybe it'd require a lot more French settlers to go there and keep the Americans occupied, to prevent easy annexation or numerical domination.

I would imagine that the Mississippi from New Orleans to St. Louis could end up with a decent smattering of French-speaking settlers during the early half of the 1800s, also with a decent amount of Anglo-Americans crossing over looking for new land and wealth. Under such circumstances, it's plausible that the French territory breaks off from France in the decades that follow, and then splinter off as you suggested. This would definitely keep the USA from having any real ability from claiming the West Coast.

For that matter, a stronger francophone presence in the continents interior might also hamper direct British influence out west as well.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

A native state in the midwest is also intriguing, though I'm not sure exactly how that comes about. Maybe as some alternative "trail of tears" effort?

I believe the British had some plan with Tecumseh to set up a native confederation in the Midwest.

 

[Eckener]

I'd forgotten about that aspect of the War of 1812. that would actually play pretty well in keeping the USA confined to the East Coast. Doubly so if the USA didn't buy Louisiana, and then ended up with a British-backed native buffer state to its northwest as well. Any attempt to take the country from "sea to shining sea" is pretty much stillborn, BUT that wouldn't stop enterprising individuals from trying to make the journey. In fact, I'd say they might be more eager to leave a country that's been humiliated in a recent war and likely going through a post-war slump. These scattering ex-Americans would mix with other Europeans in settling the Midwest and the West. Due to the political divisions, I do think that @Strategos' Risk is right, that there would be large areas that remain fairly empty of human habitation, with all these states more focused on connections with the sea than overland trade routes through territory that can at times be inhospitable, at least for a while. The Rockies would act as a pretty natural barrier between the Francophone and Native interior states that look towards the Mississippi and the Gulf, and the West Coast states that look towards the Pacific.

 

[Pesterfield]

Looking at Texas' history, I doubt that an independent state inhabited by white non-Canadians on North America would be able to resist incorporation into the USA.

Did Texas really try to resist though, I thought white planters helped the Texan revolution with the specific intent of annexation.
California tried to declare a republic, but was quickly taken by the U.S. How serious were independent feelings in California?

Mormons are the only ones I can think of that were actually brought in by force, since they kept trying to get away from U.S. territory.

 

[Captain Jack]

California tried to declare a republic, but was quickly taken by the U.S. How serious were independent feelings in California?

Not very. The California Republic only lasted 25 days before it shifted from independence to being part of the US, when a squadron of US warships in the region decided war had probably begun and captured the then-capital of Mexican California and proclaimed American annexation. The Bear Flag Revolt ended a couple of days later when troops from the warships linked up with the Bear Flag force and formed the California Batallion as a US force. It's also worth noting that Fremont, a US army officer, was intimately involved in the revolt and had encouraged it earlier in the year. This all happened more than a month before anyone in California actually found out the US and Mexico were at war, since it took so long to get news across the continent.

Californian independence might have been taken more seriously if it had really been independent like Texas prior to being incorporated into the US.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599524279963422721

 

[Eckener]

Did Texas really try to resist though, I thought white planters helped the Texan revolution with the specific intent of annexation.
California tried to declare a republic, but was quickly taken by the U.S. How serious were independent feelings in California?

Mormons are the only ones I can think of that were actually brought in by force, since they kept trying to get away from U.S. territory.

Not very. The California Republic only lasted 25 days before it shifted from independence to being part of the US, when a squadron of US warships in the region decided war had probably begun and captured the then-capital of Mexican California and proclaimed American annexation. The Bear Flag Revolt ended a couple of days later when troops from the warships linked up with the Bear Flag force and formed the California Batallion as a US force. It's also worth noting that Fremont, a US army officer, was intimately involved in the revolt and had encouraged it earlier in the year. This all happened more than a month before anyone in California actually found out the US and Mexico were at war, since it took so long to get news across the continent.

Californian independence might have been taken more seriously if it had really been independent like Texas prior to being incorporated into the US.

What all this really hammers home is that, for any sort of independent smaller Euro-American republics to be established in North America, the USA has to have its power - and more importantly, the ability to project that power - truncated pretty early on in the 19th century, which makes the War of 1812 a pretty great opportunity. Combined with not getting the Louisiana Purchase, you end up with an East Coast USA that can't expand and becomes a very different country, with people seeking land out west that's outside the American's jurisdiction, leading to the creation of multiple polities that eventually come together to form new countries (and/or become tempting targets for other nation's imperial ambitions).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599524279963422721

That's funny. I saw part of this exchange the other day, but somehow missed this original tweet.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

What all this really hammers home is that, for any sort of independent smaller Euro-American republics to be established in North America, the USA has to have its power - and more importantly, the ability to project that power - truncated pretty early on in the 19th century, which makes the War of 1812 a pretty great opportunity. Combined with not getting the Louisiana Purchase, you end up with an East Coast USA that can't expand and becomes a very different country, with people seeking land out west that's outside the American's jurisdiction, leading to the creation of multiple polities that eventually come together to form new countries (and/or become tempting targets for other nation's imperial ambitions).

Completely ASB, but I saw this happen in a nation simulation game on another forum.

There was a great French Revolution nation sim on Something Awful a decade ago where Napoleon went to Haiti and got booted out with his expedition, got bailed out by the Marquis de Sade (long story), his army of 17,000 land in Spanish Louisiana, seizes it and renamed it to Gaule, and decided to form a parallel nation there while the mainland sorts itself out. Sadly the game got too big and unwieldy and died a few turns later, but it got to a point where Tejas becomes a Gallic protectorate, nominally under the suzerainty of the New Orleans. Also the player for Jacques Pierre Brissot was attempting to set up a separate northern state with the Indians of the Great Lakes. This leads to a native rebellion in the north with the Sioux Confederation seizing everything north of the Niobrara River, and a failed slave rebellion in the south.

That is all ASB and only makes sense in the context of a game, but it was a great game.

The GMs also threw in the Thirteen Colonies falling apart in a pretty dumb silly way, but I guess that's the sort of thing that is necessary to keep them from threatening any western non-American states:

Spoiler

1792

- The United States faces untold turmoil when Aaron Burr challenges President Elect Hamilton to a duel and wins, killing him. Outrage spreads across the nation, with the New England states and New York declaring the action an impeachable offense. Burr responds by stating the laws of the state permit duels and he has committed no wrong. Hamilton agreed to the terms just as he did. In order to settle the issue, though, Burr announces he will pardon himself the moment he gets into office.

- The Supreme Court attempts to settle the issue, but is pushed aside by a vengeful Congress intent on revenge. The Balance of Power is destroyed in one fell swoop.

- Impeachment proceedings begin in Philadelphia. Although Burr's presence is requested, he has no fantasies about being found innocent and flees to Georgia. Using his quick wit, Burr convinces the Southern legislators to pass what will later be known as the “Georgia Resolution”. The resolution puts forward the idea of nullification, the right of states to declare acts by the federal government invalid. North Carolina follows with their own measures supporting Burr and the Georgia Resolution.

- Vermont, watching as the nation grows increasingly unstable declares its Act of Union with the United States invalid and formed under false pretenses. It becomes the first state to officially secede from the Union. The Vermont Republic reforms.

- With a number of Southern congressmen missing, Vice President Elect Aaron Burr is found guilty of treason and murder. He is impeached and a warrant put out for his arrest. Congress demands Georgia release Burr into their custody or face, “harsh military action”. The Georgian government decries what it describes as "tyranny by a foreign power" and votes to separate from the Union. The Commonwealth of Southern America is formed with Burr at the head.

- Congress panics as its size dwindles. There is a need for swift, decisive action. With both the President and Vice President removed, the New England states declare the President Pro Tempore of the Senate is the new president, as specified by the Presidential Succession Act of 1792.

- Virginia, Maryland and Delaware disagree and claim the act is unconstitutional. This bickering grows and soon fighting erupts in Congress. Senators and Congressmen begin beating one another, intent of ridding America of its traitors once and for all.

- The Governors of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware schedule an emergency election for the upcoming Spring. This is seen as treason by the New England states who demand Virginia stop its election at once. The states refuses and the region becomes de facto independent. New England meanwhile elevates President Pro Tempore of the Senate, John Langdon, as the new President of the United States.

- Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey are paralyzed with indecision and declare themselves neutral in the conflict. Each state effectively becomes its own nation-state. The Union is dead. The noble experiment has failed.

- President George Washington, his wife Martha, and his personal servant William Lee disappear without a trace from Mount Vernon on January 28th. There are no signs of departure, all the horses are still in their pens, and food is still set out ready to be eaten. Foul play is suspected. The incident would be a national mystery if there were still a nation.

1793

- The Marquis de Lafayette, now an officer in the Virginia Militia, begins an investigation into the disappearance of his friend George Washington. Every square inch of Mount Vernon is combed over, and all the neighbors questioned thoroughly, but no real clues have so far been found.

- Burr authorizes an invasion of South Carolina after the latter’s government refuses to accept a petition by the Carolinian people to join the Dominion of Southern America. The supposed document is fraudulent and a bald faced attempt by Burr to gain territory. The First Carolinian War begins.

- Thomas Jefferson is attacked by a mob of monarchists while leaving his home in Virginia. Jefferson has been one of the most prominent critics of the Virginian Empire, encouraging locals to rise up against the unlawful rule of Emperor Short. He is found hanging from a willow tree several days later. The incident triggers mass emigration by Republicans from Virginia to New England and New York City. They hope to build a better nation unsullied by short-sighted monarchists.

- John Adams arrives in New York to discuss the issue of the Western Reserve and settlement by New Englanders in Northern New York. He is joined by an ambassador from England, who hopes to expand trade with the American Amsterdam.

- Pennsylvania turns away envoys from Virginia, New York, and Southern America. It is the last state to maintain neutrality in the issue of the American collapse. However, growing economic instability in Philadelphia shows the state cannot maintain independence. A decision must be made soon on who to join.

It was dumb and wacky, but it was creative. Anyway just wanted to share it.

 

[Umbric Man]

It was dumb and wacky, but it was creative. Anyway just wanted to share it.

A lot of non-AH.com or published AH from way back on wikis or personal sites felt like that. In a way I become increasingly nostalgic for that said creativity as AH becomes more mainstream (so to speak) and historical research rises and plausibility becomes more considered.

 

[Eckener]

A lot of non-AH.com or published AH from way back on wikis or personal sites felt like that. In a way I become increasingly nostalgic for that said creativity as AH becomes more mainstream (so to speak) and historical research rises and plausibility becomes more considered.

I can definitely relate to that. While I do appreciate deeper research and greater plausibility, I too enjoyed that older sort of creativity where the focus was more on creative world building, willing to bend plausibility for the sake of a cool story. I generally try to find a balance between these two ends as best I can.

 

[Eckener]

Okay, so here is a working draft I have of how we might end up with independent west coast republics. Would love some feedback before I dive into the details to get beyond where I am currently at (and of course, open to suggestions on where to go with said details).

• 1802 - Tousaint L’Overtoure killed by French forces. The Rebellion in Haiti continues but is less organized. The French *slowly* take some ground, but not overly successful.
• 1803 -
  • Napoleon is open to selling Louisiana, but not in a hurry, hoping to see a different outcome in Saint-Domingue
  • Jefferson remains uneasy about the Louisiana Purchase’s constitutionality and delays, asking for a constitutional amendment to give specific authority for the government to purchase land.
  • Because of this, the treaty deadline passes and the deal falls through. France remains open to future negotiations, but these won’t happen.
• 1804-
  • France withdrew from Haiti and launched a massive evacuation of French colonists from the island to New Orleans. Some will then return to France, but many stay, cementing a desire for the colonial city to remain French, despite American interest in the region.
  • Alexander Hamilton is injured during a duel with Aaron Burr. Hamilton survives, and both men are charged with the crime of dueling. Both are ultimately acquitted, but their political careers take medium hits.
  • The proposed Jefferson treaty amendment fails to get 3/4ths of the states to approve, killing the idea of a sale for Louisiana.
  • Hamilton organizes the Federalists behind Charles Pinckney. Although Jefferson wins, the election was uncomfortably close, with the Democratic-Republicans rattled after the failure to obtain Louisiana.
• 1805
  • Former Vice President Aaron Burr relocates to Kentucky and gets involved in land speculation. He also starts to formulate an idea to lead western settlers to “invade” Louisiana and claim it for their own.
• 1806
  • Jefferson and other “coastal” DRs get into disputes with western DRs in Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee, and the party starts to show signs of a split.
• 1807
  • Burr attempts to launch his invasion of Louisiana, striking at St. Louis with nearly 500 men gathered from across the “west” on May 10th. The town is seized, and Burr proclaims the creation of the Republic of Missouri. This sparks the Missouri Crisis between France and the USA. On the one hand, the USA wants that land that Burr has gone out and claimed. On the other, it in no way wants a war with France. The French refuse to recognize the claim, and in July a force is sent upriver from New Orleans to retake the town from Burr (now styling himself as President of Missouri).
  • July 9th - Battle of St. Louis - the French overwhelm Burr and his cohort at St. Louis, who retreats back into the USA. The French pursued the retreating army into what was then Indiana Territory, ultimately not capturing Burr but capturing some of his “government.” The battle and subsequent “invasion” of the USA by France brings the USA to a crisis. Jefferson does not want war, but can’t just abide by France crossing into sovereign American territory. He ALSO is furious at Burr, and wants to hand him over to the French to try and placate things, but this deeply angers western Americans.
  • As the stalemate continued between France and the USA, the French started to arm the nascent Tecumseh Confederacy as it continued to organize against the USA.
• 1808
  • Due to the bungling of the Missouri Crisis - and with the threat of war with France still not off the table - the Democratic-Republicans do not fare well in the elections. Alexander Hamilton runs with Pinckney and eeks out a win over James Madison and George Clinton. The DRs were split, with a third candidate from the western states - a known associate of Burr, who’s still on the run from the US Marshals - running on an independent ticket, helping Hamilton win.
  • All throughout the year, small-scale fighting is bubbling up in the western parts of Indiana Territory, as Tecumseh continues to organize the native tribes in the region, and founding Prophetstown as a central hub for this growing confederacy, with aid from France, and a slowly building trickle from Britain.
• 1809
  • “Major” confrontation occurs between western militiamen and Prophetstown, with a native “victory” (largely pyrrhic, with heavy casualties and damage to the settlement). This victory will be a huge propaganda win for the confederacy, however, and Tecumseh is able to bring over the Creek and Cherokee Tribes in the southern US to support his cause, at least in theory - practice remains more complicated despite support from tribal leaders. This is ALSO a major propaganda piece for western politicians, who start to demand federal action, which President Hamilton is reluctant to commit to.
  • In September, Aaron Burr is captured by federal troops. President Hamilton is able to negotiate terms with the French to formally end the “crisis” out west and secure that the French will stop arming the natives in Indiana. In return for handing over Burr, France promises to keep the Mississippi open to American river traffic. Despite this promise, many westerners are outraged at Burr being turned over to the French, becoming a sort of martyr for the western cause.
• 1810
  • Indiana governor William H. Harrison launches a major attack on Prophetstown. Thanks to European aid (France hasn’t fully shut off the flow of weapons, and the Brits have continued it), the Americans lose. Now demand for Federal intervention is too loud to ignore, so the President sends in troops. He also demands that the British and French back off of the region, and is rebuffed.
  • The Second Battle of Prophetstown in September goes in the American’s favor, but barely, and Tecumseh and his brother both escape. What’s worse for the Americans, this attack ticks off unrest in the South, splitting American attention.
  • In the aftermath of Prophetstown, it becomes undeniable that the British have been helping the natives when a British officer is captured and revealed to be an “assistant” who is helping the natives with European weaponry. This outrages the American public.
  • New York businessman John J. Astor launches an expedition to the Pacific Northwest by sea on April 1. It will arrive at the mouth of the Columbia River on September 10, establishing a settlement and trading post there that will become known as Astoria.
• 1811
  • February 9th, in an address to Congress, President Hamilton demands a declaration of war against Britain over the Prophetstown Affair and the continued impressment of American sailors. The vote goes in favor, but barely, as New England is on the fence about the whole business - there are some in New England that think the NW Territories should be set aside as a native reserve. This is the formal start of the War of 1811, also known as the Northwest War.
  • Shortly after the war begins, the Creek and Cherokee begin attacks in the southwest and in Georgia, claiming an alliance with the Prophetstown Confederacy. This will divide federal forces, leaving frontier states and territories to still have to raise up their own militias. In Kentuck and Tennessee, there are renewed calls for attacking the French for their supposed treachery in supporting the Confederacy and taking Burr, who remains in prison in New Orleans.
  • August 12-14: Battle of Fort Detroit. British & Native forces take the fort and settlement from the Americans, a major blow to American morale.
  • Choctaw and Chickasaw tribes join the uprising against the Americans in the South in support of the Prophetstown Confederacy.
• 1812
  • March 3-5: Battle of New York. British and American Navies battle off the coast of New York City. The Americans are defeated, and the British proceed to bombard the city, causing major fires that hurt the city immensely. In the aftermath, the British announce a blockade of several American ports, including Boston, Baltimore, and Charleston. There is a growing fear that the British will land troops to march on Washington.
  • June 10: Battle of Toledo. British take the city from the Americans, sending shockwaves through Ohio and the western states. President Hamilton wants to reallocate troops but is having a hard time, with continued pressure in Indiana, Georgia, and Tennessee. The Native guerilla-style fighting is causing widespread disturbances across the frontier.
  • August 11: Battle of Cleveland. Americans are able to halt the British advance and begin to push back towards Toledo.
  • September 27: The so-called Army of Kentucky attacks Prophetstown, and is able to win an upset victory against the Confederacy, though receiving heavy losses, and most major native leaders escape unharmed. Over the winter, the Confederacy will raid Kentucky, causing minor damage.
  • November: President Hamilton eeks out a victory over DR candidate James Monroe, although the DRs remain split, with the western states fielding another candidate as a challenger.
• 1813
  • April 3: Liberation of Toledo. The American army is able to force out the British and Native forces in Toldeo. By this time, the American Navy has been able to take control of Lake Erie as well. However, with more troops deployed in Ohio, Georgia and Tennessee see an uptick in damages from Native raiders, forcing those states to raise more militia troops to try and attack the so-called Southern Native Confederacy.
  • May 20: Battle of Washington. British attacked the US capital city. President Hamilton evacuates - having been talked down by his cabinet from actually leading troops into battle - and the city is captured and held by the British for over a week, during which time much of the city is looted. When the British retreat, there is discussion about torching the city, but this is ultimately not carried out. Even though the Americans are able to reoccupy the city, the raid is a major morale blow.
  • June: Protests against the war breakout across New England. By the end of the month, several of the states, starting with Massachusetts, have passed formal petitions calling on Congress and the President to end the war, but this is met with resistance from the federal government.
  • July: Militiamen from Kentucky and Tennessee, many having connections to the former “Burr Army,” raid St. Louis, and attempt to restart the “Missouri Republic,” but are rebuffed by the French garrison there. This sparks a crisis with France threatening war on the United States.
  • September: France formally threatens war with the United States, and Hamilton backs down, calling for negotiations with the French and the British, which begin in October, with orders sent out to “hold positions,” which are generally honored, though the Native confederacies do conduct a few minor raids.
  • October-November: Negotiations in Madrid to end the Northwest War. British demand a buffer state carved out of the NW Territories, as do the French - they even propose pushing the Americans back from the Mississippi River, but this is largely rebuffed.
  • December 11: Treaty of Madrid signed. America agrees to the creation of an independent native state in what OTL would have been Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and parts of western Indiana. The disputed border of Maine is settled on British terms. The United States also agrees to keep the Mississippi River demilitarized, not allowed to put any military installations within 75 miles of the River. Other remaining trade disputes are settled on British terms.
• 1814
  • The Senate threatens to reject the Madrid Treaty, outraged at the loss of land in the Northwest. President Hamilton makes it very clear that a resumption of hostilities will devastate the republic “past all conceivable repair.” It passes in February.
  • The nation is gripped with unease (and in some places, unrest), as the new treaty goes into effect, stripping most of the NW Territory into the new “Confederacy of Nations,” as the native buffer state is called. This is the start of the “Era of Ill Feelings,” which sees many Americans look westward to leaving the USA altogether. This will only increase as the economic turmoil follows in the coming years.
  • In retaliation, the south pushes through a Native removal act calling for the removal of all Native Americans in the South to the new Confederacy, or to French Louisiana. Hamilton considers a veto, but declines to do so. For the next several years, most native peoples living in Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Virginia, and Mississippi are sent northward to the Confederacy of Nations.
  • November: Vice President Pinckney is defeated by DeWitt Clinton and his running mate, Jared Ingersoll (Monroe, having lost twice to Hamilton, declined to run for a third race).
• 1815
  • In March, DeWitt Clinton becomes the 5th President of the United States.
  • Over the summer, with the uptick in settlers/explorers traveling to Fort Astor (what will eventually become Astoria), Astor’s company officially charters the area as the “Colombia Colony,” setting up a basic system of order and governance that answered to the company. It would be the first - but not the last - privately chartered colony on the West Coast.

• Un-dated:
  • French Louisiana will become independent from France by the 1820s and then splintered, between Louisiana proper and the upper part of the former colonial holding, with many Americans flooding the upper parts of the territory.
  • Somewhere in the 1840s, 1850s, due to outside pressure from the British and Americans, the Colombia/PNW settlements formally declare their independence as the Republic of Columbia (Cascadia?) [likely includes much of OTL western Oregon and Washington State - claims possibly made farther inland, but maybe not as well]. This could possibly be in the aftermath of Mexico losing California and Texas, which may happen by the end of the 1830s, the start of the 1840s.

 

[FairlyUninformedGraduate]

Theres a lot of "the USA will inevitably expand from shore to shore" here. The early USA was not a superpower. It was a federation of states with divergent economic and social models fighting for survival and recognition. They only expanded as much as they did because: other European colonial powers focussed on other parts of the Americas; france was bankrupt enough to sell them louisiana; Mexico bungled the Texan situation; the natives couldn't unite against them for lack of a charismatic and accepted leader; Britain was tied up first in the napoleonic wars then with south Asian expansion and public opinion was against more north American involvement. Change any of these, remove one or two people in us history, put one or two others in more prominent positions and you get a very different growth.

If California and texas revolt earlier and become a joint republic, they're likely to expand northwards along the coast. Later, theyd see the usa as a rival for the central areas and probably clash over usa westward expansion, perhaps agreeing a buffer. That is every bit as possible as what happened, which if you read it in a book would find implausible.