BBC Television Studios
Friday 10th April 1992, 03:30
[Studio]
David Dimbleby: We are now entering the final stretch of our election night coverage, not many seats remain to declare tonight. There are just a few stragglers completing their count and around ten seats in various stages of the recount process where the results are very tight. At the moment and this hasn’t changed significantly in the last two hours we are predicting that there will be a change of Government later today and that the new Government will be formed by the Labour party who look like they will be 3 seats short of a majority. This is unlikely to change by more than one or two seats as declarations continue to trickle in. Peter Kellner, perhaps we could hear about the seats that are in recount as they are the ones most likely to change hands.
Peter Kellner: Yes, there are nine seats in recount at the moment, David and I suspect we won’t hear from all of them before the programme ends. In fact it is entirely possible that in some cases that if there is a third recount, it will be held after a break. It is also possible that some seats that start counting at ten o’clock may go for a recount as well. Five of the seats are Labour/Conservative battles, 2 are Conservative/Liberal Democrat battles, the remaining two are John Cartwright’s attempt to hold Woolwich as an Independent SDP member which we understand is extremely close and finally the huge battle in Birmingham Yardley which is very different.
03:32: Stevenage - Labour gain after Recount
DD: And then there were eight, Labour’s Judith Church takes Stevenage as the old Alliance vote goes to them as it halves
Code:
Stevenage - Labour Gain
Church Lab 23,222 42%
Wood Con 22,999 41%
Reilly LDm 9,405 17%
Other 223 0%
Majority: 223
Swing: 8%
PK: It is nearly all from the Alliance, Tim Wood the outgoing MP only has around 400 votes less than he did in 1987, although given the size of his majority, that is a critical 400 votes.
DD: You were saying about Yardley, that’s a Conservative Labour seat as well?
PK: Well, yes, but the Conservatives have left the count and gone home apart from the outgoing MP David Gilroy Bevan and a couple of his team. The recount is between Labour and the Liberal Democrats who have had a lot of success on the council in this area.
DD: Must be quite a lot of success to have done this well.
PK: They have over the last nine years won all the council seats in Yardley and this appears to have rubbed through. We understand they called the recounts so it is likely that Estelle Morris has won the seat for Labour, but it is one of our more unusual contests tonight.
DD: Tony King, you appear to be bursting to say something
03:35: Finchley - Conservative Hold
Tony King: Yardley isn’t as out of field as you would think, the Liberal Democrats have often used good council performances as one of their indicators of target seat status. Yardley has been an exception example of Liberal local government success and it isn’t surprising that they have acted on it. What is surprising is that it is so close, normally it takes the Liberals two or three goes to get this close.
DD: I see. I notice that Mrs Thatcher’s old seat of Finchley has been held by her successor Hartley Booth with a sharply reduced majority.
03:36: Kettering - Conservative Hold
DD: Peter Snow has something for us. Peter
PS: There are very few seats left in London that are in doubt, so we can see how Labour has performed it its 24 targets. The answer is that they have done very well against the Conservatives, 21 of their targets were against them and they have so far taken 19, they have also taken one seat beyond the target. They had two targets against the SDP and one against the LibDems. Here the swings have been much smaller, or even against them in the case of Simon Hughes in Southwark & Bermondsey.
03:37: North Cornwall - Liberal Democrat Gain
PS: They look like they will take only one of those three seats from the old Alliance and there is the problem. They have done very well, but not quite well enough against other parties to ensure their majority. It was a very large mountain to climb, but it is against the Liberal Democrats and the Welsh Nationalists where they have failed to make sufficient gains.
DD: I see, but they will be very close to a majority. John Cole, is there any further comment from the parties on the results of tonight.
JC: Well, the only party that really matters here is Labour and the indications are that Labour will at least initially discuss the idea of a coalition or some other form of deal with the Liberal Democrats. However, there is quite a lot of opposition to this, not just from John Prescott and it may be difficult for Mr Kinnock to get a consent from his own party. However, even if he do go for a minority government, he will be in a fairly strong position given that he is going to be very close to the magic 326 seats.
03:40: Third Recount in Richmond & Barnes - will re-start at 2pm
DD: Richmond suspends their count for the evening, not surprising that they don’t want to do another full recount at this time at night.
PK: I’m quite surprised at Richmond & Barnes, where other Liberal Democrat targets have been falling tonight, Jeremy Hanley appears to have got enough voters out to make it a very, very tight race. Turnout is over 82% in the seat and the margin is supposedly around 10 between the two parties.
DD: We will just look at the Liberal Democrat gain in North Cornwall, which is very much their territory.
Code:
North Cornwall - LibDem Gain
Tyler LDm 33,558 53%
Neale Con 25,385 40%
Jordan Lab 4,418 7%
Others 389 1%
Majority: 8,173
Swing: 11%
DD: A very large swing their sees Paul Tyler, briefly once the MP for the old seat of Bodmin in 1974, sent back to the Commons.
03:41: Eltham - Labour Gain
DD: Clive Efford, a taxi driver has won the suburban London seat of Eltham for Labour defeating former minister Peter Bottomley who did say about a week ago in what was considered to be a gaffe that he thought the Conservatives were in trouble and that he might end up having to live on his wife’s income. His wife, Virginia is of course also a Conservative MP for a much safer seat in Surrey and has been re-elected.
Code:
Eltham - Labour Gain
Efford Lab 18,473 45%
Bottomley Con 16,833 41%
McGinty LDm 5,146 12%
Others 162 0%
Majority: 1,540
Swing: 9%
[OB: Huntingdon]
DD: We can see John Major and his wife Norma getting into their car as they leave their count. He had a few words to say to the press but promised a statement later this morning, we understand that there has been a slight change of plan and Mr & Mrs Major will now being going straight to Downing Street, they won’t be going back home and they won’t be going to Conservative HQ on Smith Square. Mr Kinnock is, of course, already on his way to his house in Ealing and should be there fairly soon, he is not expected to go to Walworth Road but we have been told he will be there “fairly early” this morning.
[OB: Studio]
JS: There were some plans for victory celebrations by both Labour and Conservatives, but they have been very much scaled back as it became apparent that there would be a hung parliament. Conservative HQ in Smith Square is virtually empty at the moment, just a couple of Press Officer and David Mellor doing interviews. Walworth Road has a little more life but as the night has gone on that has faded, they have been quite jolly but there has been a mild sense of disappointment.
03:43: Honiton - Conservative Hold
DD: Of course, what is extraordinary is the speed of the changeover in the UK. The election was yesterday, the count is tonight and some time later today Mr Major will go to the Palace and resign as Prime Minister and almost certainly suggest that the Queen calls for Mr Kinnock. The Major’s belongings in 10 Downing Street will all be packed up and the Kinnocks will effectively move in tonight, possibly before we’ve even had the last result.
03:44: Chipping Barnet - Conservative Hold
DD: John Cole.
JC: It must be said that the speed of changeovers does often stun the foreign press corps who are used to more leisurely things. One of the points often made is that decisions are made by some very tired men and women who have often been up for 24 hours or more.
DD: Of course, Edward Heath took a while longer to concede in 1974 and was castigated for it by some of the newspapers.
03:45: Belfast West - SDLP Gain
DD: Now that is quite a significant result, Gerry Adams has lost Belfast West to Dr Joe Hendron of the SDLP. We had heard that it was possible, but he appears to have lost by around six hundred votes. John.
JC: Yes, it looks like the Unionist vote has chosen to support the SDLP, there are just about enough Unionists left in the seat to tilt it one way or another, whilst they usually stand a candidate, often there is a quiet endorsement of the SDLP or previous to that Gerry Fitt. Of course, it is both helpful and unhelpful to Labour in terms of parliamentary arithmetic, they could be certain that Mr Adams would never vote against them, which meant that the majority is effectively 323 which is what we expect them to get. However, the SDLP is Labour’s sister party and can generally be expected to vote with them except they have a poor attendance record.
03:46: Croydon North West - Conservative Hold.
DD: That’s a common problem from all sides in Northern Ireland of course, but if the SDLP end up with, what 3 seats, then that could help Labour over the line
03:46: Worcester - Labour gain after recount
DD: A couple of stragglers coming in now and Labour have gained Worcester, I don’t think that was expected?
PK: Considering they called the recount and that may alter the prediction slightly as I think we had that one in the Conservative column.
DD: Peter Snow?
PS: We still believe that Labour will be 3 short, whilst that was unexpected, we had had the opposite news from another recount which we thought was going Labour put now looks like it is going Conservative.
DD: Well, we will have to have a look at Worcester in a minute. Tony King
TK: There was a lot of talk about seats like Worcester going Labour but it was felt to be a bit of a bridge too far. However, it is places like Worcester changing hands which have been the Labour over-performance compared to the swing. The medium-sized towns have swung more strongly to Labour than any other area. There’s been a genuine move from Conservativism in some of them the likes of which have not been seen since 1966.
Code:
Worcester - Labour Gain
Berry Lab 24,611 42%
Luff Con 24,494 42%
Caiger LDm 8,488 14%
Foster Grn 564 1%
Others 343 0%
Majority: 117
Swing: 10%
DD: Roger Berry elected there for Labour, Peter Luff had been hoping to succeed Peter Walker there, of course, but the Conservative vote down over 6% I understand. That’s quite a large drop in the Conservative vote.
03:48: Jim Wallace Holds Orkney
DD: It always amazes me how some of the more remote constituencies manage to count overnight. Orkney and Shetland being one of the more extreme examples. Peter Snow, the battleboard must be nearly done now.
PS: Indeed, it is, there are only a handful of seats that we haven’t heard from by now. In fact there are less than 50 seats to declare in the whole country now and only around 20 more are counting tonight. There are very few marginals left out there that are not in recount and even fewer Labour held seats. As you can see, here’s all the little red and blue men on the board and as we advance the pendulum up through the Conservative Majority, into the Hung Parliament area and then onwards just to the edge of the Labour majority area, you can see most of those little blue men changing to red, but not all of them. Back there is Battersea, still blue and should have fallen very easily and a scattering more, but they are matched by the number of blue men that went red in the Labour majority area. The problem really has been that the seats belonging to the others, have stayed with the others. If those six or so seats had fallen, then Mr Kinnock would be in 10 Downing Street.
03:50: Waveney - Labour Gain
DD: It must be particularly excruciating to get so close especially at this stage where you see the numbers moving towards a majority but know that it just isn’t possible. Of course, the parties will have much better information than ourselves about the counts.
03:50: Somerton & Frome - Third recount later today.
DD: Labour win Waveney, the seat based around Lowestoft on a very big swing and down in Somerset another count is suspended to continue tomorrow much like this broadcast will do in around 10 minutes or so.
Code:
Waveney - Labour Gain
Leverett Lab 30,334 45%
Porter Con 29,300 44%
Rogers LDm 7,196 11%
Others 295 0%
Majority: 1,034
Swing: 9%
DD: They needed just over 8% and got 9%. David Porter has lost the seat he inherited from Jim Prior at the last election and is now held by Charles Leverett for Labour. Peter
PK: That’s another seat which was just over the Labour majority line. Of course, there is also a recount in Great Yarmouth and Labour gained Ipswich with some ease. It is an example of Tony’s medium sized town he mentioned earlier.
03:52: Gloucester - Labour gain after third recount
DD: And there’s another recount finished in Gloucester, that seat went to a third recount and Labour’s Kevin Stephens has taken the seat by a mere 34 votes, one of the smallest margins tonight. Is this another medium sized town Tony?
TK: It is and it is quite significant because it hasn’t been Labour since 1966, although it was a Labour seat all the way from 1945 to 1970 and it was never really marginal, it was felt to be fairly solidly Labour and then went to the Tories and has been felt to be good for them since. Now, I think we can say that it is a marginal.
Code:
Gloucester - Labour Gain
Stephens Lab 26,202 42%
French Con 26,168 42%
Sewell LDm 10,249 16%
Majority: 34
Swing: 10%
03:53: South West Hertfordshire - Conservative Hold
DD: Let’s see what our politicians think so far. Peter, you’ve managed to shuffle your table for one last round.
Peter Sissons: Yes, Alan Beith has gone for a quick nap before getting the train to Berwick for his count and been replaced by Simon Hughes and David Mellor has come over from Smith Square. So, as a final summary, Brian Gould are you pleased with the night?
Bryan Gould: It’s certainly been a very good night for the Labour Party and a good night for the country
David Mellor: <snorts>
BG: I think considering what a roller-coaster ride the campaign has been, we should be very pleased about the ninety or so gains that we have made and the biggest swing since 1945 and that we will be in Government. What the final shape of that Government will be is to be determined, but it is clear that the people have voted to be rid of this Conservative government.
PSis: What do you think the reason for the swing has been?
BG: I think that the Poll Tax did for the Conservatives, combined with the recession and the lack of help for people during the recession, it has lost them a lot of votes especially amongst people who converted to them after the difficulties of the last Labour government.
03:54: Great Yarmouth - 3rd Recount to be started this afternoon
DD: That’s the fourth seat that will be finishing this afternoon
03:54: Robert McLennan holds Caithness & Sutherland
PSis: Simon Hughes, do you think you might be part of the next Government?
Simon Hughes: We certainly wouldn’t rule it out, there are areas where we can work with Labour, we will be interested to hear their proposals, but if they are similar to the often high-handed way such things are done on councils, then they may not get much of a hearing.
PSis: And are you pleased with the Liberal Democrats performance tonight?
SH: I’m very pleased, it looks like we may end up with around 34 seats which is a very substantial improvement on 1987 and shows that our strategy of concentrating on our strong areas and fighting a serious and positive campaign has worked
03:55: Birmingham, Yardley - Labour gain after Second Recount.
PSis: Bryan Gould, you can be high handed?
BG: I think comparing talks about running a council to talks about running a government are a little unfair. However, there has been perhaps not quite enough leeway in that area, which has led to a lot of minority councils. Having said that, Labour have run a lot of successful minority councils, which could mean that we have learnt some lessons here. It’s about finding a consensus for Government for the next few years between ourselves and the rest of Parliament.
PSis: Does that sound welcoming, Simon?
SH: We shall wait and see, Bryan says that running a council isn’t like running a government, I would agree with him on that, but I think that a consensus minority might be rather a weak basis to work from.
PSis: David Mellor, what are your feelings?
03:57: Westminster North - Labour gain after second recount.
DM: Obviously, it has not been a good night for the Conservatives and the sight of several senior colleagues almost immediately positioning themselves for a leadership bid as the results came it has not been pleasant. I think that has been part of the overall problem, John Major has worked wonders but there has been too much of a divide in the party and it has been evident and put the voters off. Mr Kinnock has done a much better job about papering over the divides in his party and has reaped the benefits of this. However, I don’t imagine this will last too long, especially has he is short of a majority. There will be those keen to use their influence in whatever way they can and that will be seen very quickly.
PSis: So you expect a second election?
DM: No, but I expect everyone to be very much reminded of the end of the last Labour government.
PSis: Won’t the Conservatives have some difficulties if there is a second election soon?
DM: Oh, I think we certainly wouldn’t like to have it next week, but I would expect that we should be ready if Mr Kinnock tries to do a Wilson
03:58: Daventry - Conservative Hold
PSis: Thank you, everyone, we need to get back to David now.
DD: Thank you Peter, two more Labour gains have come in and a Conservative hold, there are now very few seats left to come in tonight and most of them are safe seats for the Conservatives.
03:59: Chelsea - Conservative Hold
DD: However, we just have time for a very quick look at those two final Labour gains.
Code:
Birmingham, Yardley - Labour Gain
Morris Lab 15,491 35%
Hemming LDm 15,369 35%
Bevan Con 12,659 29%
Others 192 0%
Majority: 122
Swing: 6%
DD: Extraordinary result there, Labour have actually gone backwards as the Liberals increase their vote by 15%. A mere 122 votes meant two recounts. Estelle Morris however is the victor in the end.
Code:
Westminster North - Labour Gain
Edwards Lab 18,558 45%
Wheeler Con 18,517 44%
Wigoder LDm 3,353 8%
Burke Grn 934 1%
Others 296 0%
Majority: 41
Swing: 5%
DD: Two recounts here as well and I’m surprised that there wasn’t a third one given the narrow margin. Jennifer Edwards wins here for Labour in a seat which has never felt as marginal as it looked on paper.
04:00: Harwich - Conservative Hold
DD: As Big Ben strikes four am, six hour after the polls have closed, we have just over 610 results in with only a handful to still come this evening. We now know that Mr Kinnock’s Labour Party will be the largest party in the House of Commons and we predict that they will end the election 3 sets short of an overall majority. Our colleagues on BBC Breakfast will pick up this exciting story at 6am and the final results will be known by around 6pm this evening. However, by that time, we would expect the Prime Minister John Major gone to Buckingham Palace and resigned and Mr Kinnock having been summoned to the Palace and asked to form a government. However, it is now time for everyone on the team to get a little rest so Good Night or maybe even Good Morning.
State of Parties : Lab 317 Con 255 LDm 29 Oth 14