Weird idea, American sub spots Japanese fleet steaming towards Pearl Harbour.

Lame scenario indeed. An enemy fleet is stopped at the last moment and the US public is not celebrating victory, but devided because the US fired the first shot. Where is CalBear when one needs him?

I agree. 'W' seemed to get pretty good ratings when he attacked Iraq preemptively. I dont think the suggested POD would ultimately prevent full US involvement in WW2.
 
Not literally, of course, but I can't think that the surprise attack which is absolutely required for any chance of success in the war being thwarted can be cause for anything but horror.

Disappointment, certainly, sadness, maybe but horror? I think the Japanese are made of sterner stuff than that.
 
The Japanese expected to lose up to half their fleet in the attack, a major factor in Nagumo not launching another strike as he was so delighted to avoid the vast majority of expected losses and saw no need to risk them for the last bits of the job.

The fact is that one squadron of Japanese Zeros jumped the gun and wound up circling Pearl Harbor, presumably a well-guarded military installation, in broad daylight for almost 20 minutes without alarms going off.
 

Markus

Banned
There's this little legal detail called freedom of the seas....
And a fleet hundreds of miles away from you is hardly clear and present danger.

Speed of a japanese CV: 30knots+
combat radius of IJN aircraft: 200nm+

So a fleet several thousand miles away from it´s next base and several hundred from yours is a day or less away from attacking you.


I agree. 'W' seemed to get pretty good ratings when he attacked Iraq preemptively.

Whatever that was with Iraq it was NOT a preemptive attack since Iraq as not even in a position to threaten the USA, much less attack in a matter of 24hrs.
 
It somewhat depends on how obvous the likely Japanese objective is.

If the task force is detected before it is obvous where they might strike the option is to as openly as possible observe them.

I think there were some Liberators available at that time. At the same time some US Destroyers might move to shadow the Japanese fleet.

As I understand international law until the ships entered another state's coastal waters (probably 3 or 12 miles) or planes flew over same of they started to shoot Japan had every right to put its warships where ever it liked, but so did the US.

The US merely needed to have a small number of craft (air or sea) openly observing the Japanese force and sending its position - probably to the media as much to US military leadership.

Until the target was obvious all US Pacific bases- including on the WEst Coast would be on alert.


If it were obvious that they Japanese intended to attack Pearl Harbor a high state of alert there, linked to attempts at covert surveilance could leave Japan being clearly the first state to start the war and suffering a serous visible defeat at its start.
 
Hasn't anybody considered that this might be worse for the Americans? Let's assume that they can confirm that the Kido Butai is headed for Pearl Harbor. Admiral Kimmel readies the fleet and his proud battle line steams out to open sea to battle the Japanese if they are hostile. The aircraft carriers sink the battleships which cannot be refloated from deep waters and over 20.000 American sailors are dead or POWs.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
It would go a lot worse for the IJN than described in this scenario:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=106764


It depends on when the sighting occurs.

If it is too soon, the sighting will flush the game, Pearl will empty, and the Kido Butai will simply turn around and go home.

If it's more than 12 hours but less than 18 that is a worst case for the U.S., the BBs will sortie without escorts and be very vulnerable to the I-boats lurking around the Islands or get caught by aircraft in open water and potentially be lost at sea with far great loss of life and no hope of salvage.

Less than 12 and you get either Marcus' scenario or mine from Pacific War Redux https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=94005

(BTW: This timeline is NOT dead. Updates will happen soon, now that I can type with both hands again).:D
 
I cannot belive the people who seem to think that just because you currenly have bad relations with a country, its ok to go out and sink their ships in international waters, just in case they might do something to you!

PLEASE learn something about how you go about these things.

Now, what would a SANE Kimmel do?

(1) Make sure his long range planes were shadowing the Japanese fleet. very obviously.
(2) Send out some destroyers, a cruiser or 2, again to very ostentatiously shadow the fleet.
(3) Send his big ships out, but keep them away from the Japanese. He knows where they are, they dont know where he is.
(4) If he has subs available, send tem out too, but keep them hidden.
(5) Keep looking for the 'rest ' of the fleet - after all, its the battleships you need to worry about, right?:p

The US State department might also (note its their job, not Kimmels) insist that the fleet moves away, just in case of 'mishaps', and also point out that a mass plane launch will be taken as an attack as they are within strike range of a major US base (now they've been warned, so if they ignore it it would be acceptable to take action).
The Japanese are now stuck. If they stay there or launch, they are not only attacking a warned and prepared target, they know there will be heavy counterattacks immediately. If they leave, they havent acheived anything, although they can claim they were just conducting a fleet excercise on the open seas, and the US is being an aggressor.

None of this batshit about happily attacking the Japanese fleet without warning at sea, please.
 
I have also written such scenarios and one of the main replies is: US torpedoes for subs bad, most likely duds.

So the japanese destroy a sub and then attack PH as OTL.
 
Hasn't anybody considered that this might be worse for the Americans? Let's assume that they can confirm that the Kido Butai is headed for Pearl Harbor. Admiral Kimmel readies the fleet and his proud battle line steams out to open sea to battle the Japanese if they are hostile. The aircraft carriers sink the battleships which cannot be refloated from deep waters and over 20.000 American sailors are dead or POWs.

All that you are saying has been considered before and discussed before in threads that this WI is nothing but a repeat of. Nothing here is a new or original discussion, but rehashing.
 

Markus

Banned
It depends on when the sighting occurs.

If it's more than 12 hours but less than 18 that is a worst case for the U.S., the BBs will sortie without escorts and be very vulnerable to the I-boats lurking around the Islands or get caught by aircraft in open water and potentially be lost at sea with far great loss of life and no hope of salvage.

Without escorts? On Dec.7th PH was full of CA, CL and DD. The USN also had ASW aircraft and the USAAF fighters. Furthermore hitting a manoeuvring ship is far more difficult that a stationary one, especially considering that the early war AAA on US ships was better than the one the RN had. And last but not least PH was attacked at 8 am. Twelve hrs earlier its 8 pm or too close to dusk to launch an air strike. Another six hrs earlier the range is too great for Kido Butai to launch an attack and they need to worry about the three US CV all the time.



My guess if they realize they are spotted on Dec. 6th they´ll run. If they are spotted on that day and don´t realize it the US Pacific Fleet will leave PH after dusk and given them a rude awakening on Dec.7th. Unless Washington intervenes.
 

burmafrd

Banned
As has been pointed out it all depends on when the US Sub spots them. Now under the current orders the sub is supposed to shadow the force and then get away to report the force to HQ. If the force is sighted only a few hundered miles from Pearl Harbor then the object of the force is obvious: the IJN's main strike force THOUSANDS of miles from home and from any Japanese territory or base in the tense times of December 1941 would not be considered INNOCENT by anyone with any sense at all. Its clearly there with the purpose of either attacking or provoking an attack+ either one makes it a legitimate target for an attack by US Forces.
Interesting point is that if that force was only BB's and such then its potental threat is much less and it makes a case that the US would have to give warning before attacking. BUT given that its a carrier force then you have a much greater threat range.
From what I recall of the OTL deployment of US Subs there were none anywhere near the strike force. Only an accidental sighting by a sub either coming from Pearl or going to Pearl would be likely.So the sighting would be close to Pearl. THOUGH any sub would be heading for the Phillipines and would their course come anywhere close to the predicted course of the Strike Force?
 
Top