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For a variety of possible AHs, including yet another "soft underbelly" (two guesses who would have proposed that), I'm wondering how many late-WWII/very early Cold War divisions would be required to reliably defend the Caucasus SSRs and Black Sea/Caspian area from an attack out of Iran.
The closest I could find to OTL information is a declassified CIA document theorizing that a Soviet conquest of all of Iran would take 20-25 (1980s) divisions attacking out of those same SSRs. Another declassified one suggests the Soviets considered a Western Allied thrust up the Caucasus possible and argues to "Secure" it, but does not list the forces involved.
Thoughts? (Assume for one scenario the invading force can stage out of Turkey, and for another it somehow can't)