Weimar Lasts: Pacific War?

Let's say the Weimar Republic muddles through the 1930s via Hitler not being appointed Chancellor and a joint SDP-Centre-BVP Government forming following the next election (the Strasserists meanwhile break off from the NSDAP eventually and join this government).

Without a war in Europe, how does the Pacific War go? I can't see the Japanese elevating things against the French and British without a war in Europe, but presumably the Americans would continue to respond to Japanese actions and the Western Nations will continue to smuggle weaponry and supplies into China.

There's also be the issue of Britain and France having to watch out for Italy's activities in Spain, Yugoslavia, and Ethiopia.

By the time a war breaks out, I think a President other than Roosevelt would be leading the United States. It was the Fall of France that led to him running for a third term. I think Cordell Hull is the likely Democratic candidate. He was a Southerner, good with the unions, an internationalist, and Secretary of State. I think Hull still beats Wilkie (or whoever the Democrats nominate) but by a closer margin than OTL.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
A surviving Weimar government will continue to sell weapons and send advisors to KMT China. There would be no Pacific war, only a war between Japan and China.
 
First I think you are correct, without the fall of France Japan cannot move to Indochina, without a near beaten UK it does not look at Malaya or even truly get after Hong Kong. And I do think the USA really never bothers to get too demanding so the DEI are not worth it enough. The upside is that Japanese aggression might get Germany out of the dog house, strip away the last of Versailles and let her re-emerge as one of the European powers again. As she wrestles with Japan she does the dirty work and Britain can silence French objections to a little more Navy, a little more Army, more talk on borders, more undoing the damage of 1919. It is the USSR that will be a wildcard.
 
For Japan the "China Incident" was a money losing venture. Japan was dependent on foreign banks, mostly of the US and some London banks. At some point the cash flow will dictate a reduction in credit & Japans real leaders, the Zaibatsu will be forced to rethink the entire China venture. This may occur as early as mid 1942. if Japan can't force a favorable outcome with China then they are going to have to write off their attempt at a hostile takeover and retrench in the hopes of retaining some profitable portions of China and negating Chinas eventual resurgence by other means.
 
For Japan the "China Incident" was a money losing venture. Japan was dependent on foreign banks, mostly of the US and some London banks. At some point the cash flow will dictate a reduction in credit & Japans real leaders, the Zaibatsu will be forced to rethink the entire China venture. This may occur as early as mid 1942. if Japan can't force a favorable outcome with China then they are going to have to write off their attempt at a hostile takeover and retrench in the hopes of retaining some profitable portions of China and negating Chinas eventual resurgence by other means.


That's assuming they can get the Kwantung Army to behave, isn't it?
 
That's assuming they can get the Kwantung Army to behave, isn't it?

The ugly truth is the renegades were acting out policy choosen by the expansionists among the Zaibatsu. The narrative of the young renegade officers going off on their own was a convienent fiction that gave cover to the politicians and Generals or Admirals, and to the shadow power in Japan the Zaibatsu. Fact is everyone important in the military or politics was affiliated through family or patronage to one or another of the business groups. Lacking those affiliations was the definition of being unimportant. Had their not been a powerful group of leaders at the top committed to halting Chinas stabilization under the KMT, to securing a larger share of Chinas potential, and by extension reducing European and US influence/acess the 'Kwantung Army' would have behaved itself.
 
For Japan the "China Incident" was a money losing venture. Japan was dependent on foreign banks, mostly of the US and some London banks. At some point the cash flow will dictate a reduction in credit & Japans real leaders, the Zaibatsu will be forced to rethink the entire China venture. This may occur as early as mid 1942. if Japan can't force a favorable outcome with China then they are going to have to write off their attempt at a hostile takeover and retrench in the hopes of retaining some profitable portions of China and negating Chinas eventual resurgence by other means.
What's scary is that if Japan gets nuclear weapons before China, which is very likely, I can definitely see that regime starting another war and actually using them.
 
I had a brief thread discussing a later war between China and Japan, perhaps in the 1950s. No one brought up nukes that I can remember.
Without WWII and the Manhattan project, the development is going to be slowed down significantly and there is no cold war in the West so it's quite possible that no nation would have possessed such a device in the 50's. Eventually though, they're going to get built and if the Japanese government still resembles its 30's and 40's self when they do, then they're probably going to see them as a decisive advantage to be exploited while their opponents do not have it.
 
No Weimar does not mean no war in Europe. It’s still possible that a stable democratic Germany seeks to address the diktat of Versailles. This likley does not lead to a war as one would assume would be far less likely to take risks like reoccupying the Rhineland, The Anschluss, etc. it’s also possible that they are too diplomatic, reasonable, and willing to compromise and talk so their is no fear factor which does not motivate anyone to address anything as they think Germany won’t go to war over this leaving them no option but war. No Hitler also means any attempt by the SU to add areas of Finland/Romania and the Baltic states would perhaps bring western Europe together to oppose the Soviet expansion and the spread of communism with a Weimar Germany aligned with France, the UK and the little Entente. No Hitler can also mean no German help for Franco and the Nationalists. A republican win with no fear of a Nazi Germany will make the red menace seem even worse and any moves by Stalin would have the same effect of Hitler take territory piece by piece. Eventually appeasing Stalin will run its course as it did with Hitler.

No Nazis can mean Germany still backs China over Japan. I don’t think that would automatically make it less likely for a Pacific War. Perhaps if China is stronger maybe the Navy has more say or sway and the head to the Southern Resource area sooner. Instead of a war against a land power with a huge population they go for a war against distant powers who they may convince themselves would accept loosing colonies on the other side of the world if they can make it a bloody costly affair for the west. It also possible that Japan feels even more isolated and instead of saying hey we have no allies we better be cautious the reaction of the militarists is we have to do something drastic because we’re all alone with few natural resources. Not saying likely but possible.
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FDR I think would run for a 3rd term. I don’t buy that it’s because of the war arguement. It’s his ego. It’s about FDR loving FDR. I dont think much would change with anyone else as President in terms of policies to expansionist Japan. Military and economic factors would remain and we would follow a very similar course. Similar Japanese response. FDR would have found another talking point. Finishing the job of recovering from the depression or something to that effect.
 
If Weimar is to survive, it is not enough to eliminate both wings of Nazis (Hitlerian middle class oriented and Strasser/Rohm workers class wing), but you also have to solve problem of KPD (communists). How exactly does Germany solves Great Depression (unemployment, low GDP, foreign debt) if not with rearmanent ?
 
... How exactly does Germany solves Great Depression (unemployment, low GDP, foreign debt) if not with rearmanent ?

The economic value of rearmament was a propaganda myth. It required deficit spending by the government. Gaining the Austrian treasury & financial reserves though the Anschluss was akin to winning the lottery. Even with that it required financial trickery and fraudulent book keeping to keep the government afloat. The seizure of the Czech banks in March 1939 was a second windfall that allowed the fiction of prosperity to continue.

Beyond that the nazis made 'good Germans' prosperous by stealing Jewish businesses, and not counting all the Jews, Gypsies, & other undesirables as unemployed. In general the employment statistics were fake & the vision of a rising Germany under the nazi government a nazi story.
 
The economic value of rearmament was a propaganda myth. It required deficit spending by the government.
Rearmament worked just fine for jumpstarting American economy, regardless of it being deficit spending.
Germany was in trouble because of too huge military overspending. That was one of the factor when Hitler planned original war sometime in 1942, not 1939.
 
Rearmament worked just fine for jumpstarting American economy, regardless of it being deficit spending. ...

The jumpstart for the US came on other people money. 5000+ aircraft orders from France, Britain, Netherlands... Even the Japanese were contributing 1939-40 with their borrowing from US banks to purchase steel, chemicals, oil, aluminum... US military expansion was in line with revenue until 1941 when the panic purchases from the collapse of France were billed. In the case of Germany infrastructure projects served better.
 
If Weimar is to survive, it is not enough to eliminate both wings of Nazis (Hitlerian middle class oriented and Strasser/Rohm workers class wing), but you also have to solve problem of KPD (communists). How exactly does Germany solves Great Depression (unemployment, low GDP, foreign debt) if not with rearmanent ?

The economic value of rearmament was a propaganda myth. It required deficit spending by the government. Gaining the Austrian treasury & financial reserves though the Anschluss was akin to winning the lottery. Even with that it required financial trickery and fraudulent book keeping to keep the government afloat. The seizure of the Czech banks in March 1939 was a second windfall that allowed the fiction of prosperity to continue.

Beyond that the nazis made 'good Germans' prosperous by stealing Jewish businesses, and not counting all the Jews, Gypsies, & other undesirables as unemployed. In general the employment statistics were fake & the vision of a rising Germany under the nazi government a nazi story.

Additionally, the German economy was bound to improve just as every other economy was improving in the 1930s. If SPD, BVP, and Zentrum make gains in 1934 and the NSDAP splits between the Strasserites and Hitlerites (Strasser was contemplating splitting the party and joining a coalition with the more moderate parties) then you have the basis for a government I'd think.
 
Additionally, the German economy was bound to improve just as every other economy was improving in the 1930s. If SPD, BVP, and Zentrum make gains in 1934 and the NSDAP splits between the Strasserites and Hitlerites (Strasser was contemplating splitting the party and joining a coalition with the more moderate parties) then you have the basis for a government I'd think.

Wouldn`t Strasserites, together with 3 million SA (Rohm) join forces with Communists ? If SPD remains centralist party which refuses KPD as a partner, it was possible, although unlikely. There was also a possibility of right wing/military coup. They were terrified of Rot aktion-SA cooperation. Hitler was not the only threat to Weimar.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Wouldn`t Strasserites, together with 3 million SA (Rohm) join forces with Communists ? If SPD remains centralist party which refuses KPD as a partner, it was possible, although unlikely. There was also a possibility of right wing/military coup. They were terrified of Rot aktion-SA cooperation. Hitler was not the only threat to Weimar.
SA could also collaborate with the military. General Kurt von Schleicher was building up ties with Gregor Strasser and Ernst Rohm. Hitler had all three of them assassinated on the Night of Long Knives because they were a threat to his power and also were harming relations with the industrialists.
 
...
Without a war in Europe, how does the Pacific War go? I can't see the Japanese elevating things against the French and British without a war in Europe, but presumably the Americans would continue to respond to Japanese actions and the Western Nations will continue to smuggle weaponry and supplies into China. ...

I my choice for more likely scenario is enough Japanese leaders, in and outside the government, in the military and the Zaibatsu, recognize the China war as a losing proposition. A peace is brokered and Japan retrenches for a tougher economic competition in the 1940s, and for a resurgent China becoming a military threat to Japans empire.

However if you want a Pacific war by the early 1940s heres a few possible paths. I don't consider any of them likely, tho they are possible.

Closing Haiphong.
OTL one of the motivations for the Japanese occupation of French Indo China was to close the overland trade route from the Hanoi port to the KMT territory. France was uncooperative over closing the supply route to the KMT. There were other economic incentives as well. FIC was a net rice exporter, supplying Asia wherever shortages developed. There were the lucrative rubber plantations. Tin ore was mined there. OTL FIC looked like low hanging fruit & the Japanese jumped on it, never expecting the US/British reaction to be so devastating.

Lets imagine for a moment the same problem exists with military supply and other trade to the KMT via the Red River basin undercutting Japanese efforts in China. Now consider that without a resurgent Germany the former Entente has not been revived in a Anglo/French alliance. France, Britain, the US, & others are all drafting along fat dumb and happy. In that political context could Japan pull off the same stunt they did vs the Russians 35 years earlier? Make some strong demands of the French, when negotiations seem to stall Japan makes a surprise attack on the French Asian fleet & invades FIC at several points. France lacks the ability to compete at sea with Japan. It can send its European fleet, but that looks suspiciously like a reprise of the Russian debacle of 1906. Britain and the US will flail around in confusion Italy is unlikely to support France, & how effective can French/German cooperation be at this point. From the Japanese perspective this could look like a winning situation. The French fleet is too weak, the French army in FIC is small and as we all know no match for the Japanese army in morale and skill ;). As with the Russians Japan can get a quick victory and negotiate some substantial concessions from the French. What could possibly go wrong here? :cool:

End the Concessions
The whole point to Japans invasion of China was to gain maximum economic control. The foreign Concessions, the Unequal Treaties, gave the Europeans considerable economic leverage in China. If those are reduced or ended Japan gains more economic control & gains prestige among the Chinese for ending the hated Concessions. Japan can act directly as representative of its puppet Chinese government, or put the puppet government up front and back its demands with Japanese muscle. Either way the European businessmen will be howling for their governments to preserve their lucrative setup. But, in Japans leaders view the Europeans are morally and militarily weak, and the US not even worth considering. Again, what could possibly go wrong? :cool:

Bat S...t Crazy
The KMT collapses in 1942. Within a couple years the imperialist see nothing but opportunities across Pacifica and Asia. The natives are restless & the colonial empires looking shaky. Lets liberate them and create a great pan asia CoProsperity Sphere. The European empires will collapse like a table of card houses. What could go wrong? Just kick the door in... :cool:

Debt Reduction
The KMT collapses but Japan is clearly losing the peace, with control of China costing more than it brings in. The debt burden incurred in the US, and Britain can't be serviced. Japan makes demands, then in a surprise move invades the Philippines in a effort to gain some negotiating leverage. The mongrel Americans have no army to speak of, and the Navy is mostly for show, having not fought a serious war since 1863. Again, what could go wrong here? :cool:
 
I my choice for more likely scenario is enough Japanese leaders, in and outside the government, in the military and the Zaibatsu, recognize the China war as a losing proposition. A peace is brokered and Japan retrenches for a tougher economic competition in the 1940s, and for a resurgent China becoming a military threat to Japans empire.

However if you want a Pacific war by the early 1940s heres a few possible paths. I don't consider any of them likely, tho they are possible.

End the Concessions
The whole point to Japans invasion of China was to gain maximum economic control. The foreign Concessions, the Unequal Treaties, gave the Europeans considerable economic leverage in China. If those are reduced or ended Japan gains more economic control & gains prestige among the Chinese for ending the hated Concessions. Japan can act directly as representative of its puppet Chinese government, or put the puppet government up front and back its demands with Japanese muscle. Either way the European businessmen will be howling for their governments to preserve their lucrative setup. But, in Japans leaders view the Europeans are morally and militarily weak, and the US not even worth considering. Again, what could possibly go wrong? :cool:

Alternatively, could Japan reach reproachment with Europe for a piece of the Chinese pie if they end up dawdling long enough? After all, once he's subdued the Warlords Chaing's next target are those exact European concessions, in which she's supported and aligned by the other powers seeking revisions to the post-Versallies order (The USSR and Germany). Britain and France's colonial security is just as threatened if not more so by a China waving the anti-European banner as Japan, which is a fact Tokyo could leverage to restart warm relations with Britain, to back when they were allies
 
Wonder what history would make of failed SA and ex-Freikorps going to China to fight the communists.

Maybe after fighting (and losing) for Nationalist Spain there.
 
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