Weimar Lasts: Italy's activities?

Let's say the Weimar Republic muddles through the 1930s via Hitler not being appointed Chancellor and a joint SDP-Centre-BVP Government forming following the next election (the Strasserists meanwhile break off from the NSDAP eventually and join this government).

Italy basically had three ongoing expansionist activities going on in the 1930s that I can think of:
1) Spain, where Mussolini had more to do with the start of the Spanish Civil War and backing Franco than Hitler did initially. The Italians wanted to directly annex or at least continually occupy the Balearic Islands and Ceuta.
2) Ethiopia, which Italy invaded in 1935 OTL
3) The Balkans, where Italy was supporting the Croatian Nationalists, actively trying to undermine Yugoslavia, and wanted to directly incorporate Albania. Italy's regime wanted to dominate the lands of Yugoslavia and Greece and have client/partner relationships with Austria, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria.

There's also the historic Italo-Yemeni treaty of 1926 (renewed in 1937 after the conquest of Ethiopia) where Italy acknowledged the Yemeni claim to Aden.

What would Italy be getting up to without WW2 and how would the other Great Powers react?
 
The list leaves out Italian efforts at economic investment & influence. The attempt at a new Roman Empire included a focus on economic investment in the region, even if it made less sense than elsewhere. The Italians competed with foreign oil companies in development of the Rumanian oil industry, often with money borrowed from the US or London banks. Ditto for other mineral extraction, agriculture, and some manufacturing.
 
Ethiopia, Albania stays the same. Larger role in the Spanish Civil War as their is no or less German involvement. He is not taking on France alone to get Tunsia, not taking on the UK alone for Egypt. Perhaps Greece but I doubt it. He knows that probably means war with the UK and since no Hitler there is no little brother syndrome motivating him. Perhaps he can get some of Yugoslavia if he can get some or all of Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece and Romania on board. If their all in then France and the UK might protest and not do much as they have no way to help. Unlikely but plausible.
 
Ethiopia, Albania stays the same. Larger role in the Spanish Civil War as their is no or less German involvement. He is not taking on France alone to get Tunsia, not taking on the UK alone for Egypt. Perhaps Greece but I doubt it. He knows that probably means war with the UK and since no Hitler there is no little brother syndrome motivating him. Perhaps he can get some of Yugoslavia if he can get some or all of Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece and Romania on board. If their all in then France and the UK might protest and not do much as they have no way to help. Unlikely but plausible.

Not unlikely in my opinion. Without Germany, after all, Stalin is the boogeyman threatening the balance of power in Europe, trying to co-opt China, and putting the pressure on their Eastern European allies. In such a case, the Anti-Communist nature of Italian Fascism is probably going to get greater emphasis, especially if Franco takes a similar PR route. Hell, the military-backed and traditionalist governments in Poland, Romania, ect. were ideologically similar enough that Italy and Iberia could slip into the Southern European scene well enough; maybe even including Austrofacism. In such a case, I see France and Britain more than willing to concede to Italian influence and market penetration into the Balkans/Danubian river basin, finding their oil source in Romania, waiting for unrest in Yugoslavia to intervene in the name of stopping Communist aggression, ect. You could also see, with their expanding naval power, a push towards the Pacific (maybe as part of an anti-Comintern pact with Japan? Maybe even GB as well?) and getting a colonial concession or puppet warlord there.

Basically, Mussolini would be forced to wait for oppritunities to make gains by exploiting regional crises and "Red Scare" sentiments, as well as settling for influence/economic/diplomatic coups in the meantime while cozying up to the other Imperialist powers.
 
Not necessarily Italy could go for Albania - it was essentially a decision done as balancing the occupation of Bohemia. Keeping a puppet status may be sufficient for Italy as long Zog would behave.

Mussolini may go for sure for Ethiopia, if else could have an harder time if Weimar Germany will join France and Britain in the sanctions. This could prevent Italy to intervene more decisively in Spain. Maybe I don't see Franco prevail without German support. Add Guadalajara in between and Mussolini will throw the towel likely. Besides, a radical if not even communist Spain could convince the French to search a detente with Italy. So paradoxally a failure in Spain would be beneficial for the fascist regime.
 
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