Weighting the Dice: an Islamic World

I'm afraid this is just an idea and not a full TL, though it should be and maybe could grow into one.

On the thread "Saving Rome: is Germania Enough?", Eurofed was accused of "weighting the dice" with multiple favorable POD's or, at least, the best-possible knock on effects. I guess most would call this phenomenon a close cousin of the wank... but, as we know, there are plenty such examples in world history.

Alright, what I'm proposing is to "weight the dice" for Islam. If this scenario is ASB, then I've failed... but if it's plausible, though unlikely and remarkably lucky, that's what I'm going for.

Here's my thought: the siege of Constantinople in 717-18 takes the city. The Bulgars and, later, Moravians convert to Islam. a Byzantine successor state in Sicily and Italy clings tenuously to life.

In 732, an Andalusi reconnaissance in force smashes the Franks under Charles Martel at Tours. A follow-up invasion overwhelms the realm of Firanj; western Germany and Italy, surrounded on both sides, will eventually fall to Islam as well.

With Constantinople in Islamic hands, the Rus will begin to move toward Islam, not Christianity; and if the Khazars become Jewish, there long term survival as such - surrounded by Islamic powers, instead of being able to play rival religions off each other as per OTL - is highly unlikely. The Scandinavians will be an unholy terror, but eventually will embrace the new religion from the south.

England's survival against an Islamic continent is possible, but in this scenario they lose. (This is only the third roll of the dice, after Constantinople and Tours; the rest are pretty obvious knock-ons). Islamic Angalis will achieve hegemony over the Christian Irish, who will serve as an analogue to Wallachia and Moldavia or, more loosely, to Nubia and Ethiopia: a Christian remnant recognizing Islamic political dominance. They may well be Celtic Christian, given the fate of Rome.

I hypothesize that Mediterranean Europe will be largely Arabic speaking by modern times. However, the north, which largely converted of its own accord or at least was minimally settled, will preserve more of its own culture, though taking Arabic loan words and embracing Arabic as the language of religion, diplomacy, and science, like the OTL Persians. And like Persian, languages like Russian and English (written in Arabic, of course) could eventually become important Islamic voices.

I'm not certain about the Turks. They're likely to take over large portions of the Islamic world in the short run. But absent an Anatolian state and homeland (and idk why there would be one, since they don't have to be Ghazis against the Rhomaion), they may be assimilated into Persian and Arabic culture; Turkish may survive, if at all, on the fringes (eg Azerbaijan).

Now, the big one. The nomads north of China are united by an Islamic *Temujin*. Temujin himself is very unlikely, and his conversion to anything - I've read TLs that offer Judaism and Nestorianism - another leap. But it's still plausible.

*Temujin*'s jihad overwhelms the Jin, then turns east (against Khwarezm? and the Abbasids, if they survive) and usurps control over the Caliphate; depending on conditions, he may even proclaim himself caliph. He will certainly not slaughter the caliph and his family.

Either *Temujin* or a *Kublai* like successor turns south against the Song. Now, China, India and/or Islam experts, what does an Islamic China look like? How Islamic is it? Does Islam syncretically coexist with Confucianism, Daoism, Buddhism, and ancestor worship, or does its uncompromising nature lead to a more truly Islamic state?

Next, I posit that *Kublai*'s expeditions to Japan, Vietnam, and Java are successful.

Eventually, the age of sail will take European and perhaps African or East Asian Muslims to the Americas and around the world. Jihad, missionary work, trade and settlement will Islamize the Americas, Africa, and Australia; and the *Mughals* will either be bolstered by trade with correligionists or usurped by them.

What sort of world have we created? I imagine the differences between, say, English and Chinese Islam will be vast. This is a world where the vast majority (say, 3-5.5 of 6 billion) are Muslim. On the other hand, in some ways it will be more culturally diverse, since China, India, Africa, and the Middle East come from the same "world civilization" as TTL's Europe.

Thoughts? Is this TL plausible, even by weighting the dice? Is this a world one would want to live in? Does it deserve a TL?
 
It might be plausable but for Constantinople too fall. Well you are going to need a POD far earlier. Even without Bulgar help Comstantinople will be impossible to crack wit the technology of the time period.
So maybe the Muslim fail to take Constantinople but instead take the Balkans and Anatolia and Sicily, that would be much more plausable. Otherwise I think most of your POD is very plausable.
Besides with Islamic forces on all sides eventually we can get a situation similiar to the ottomans in 1452 except the Islamic forces will have far more resources and manpower.
 
What is the impetus for the Age of Sail, if the route from China to Europe is under (sort of) one civilization? I can't see what would make someone mount a serious transatlantic voyage other than wanting to get to some other land more quickly.

Might it begin in the Pacific instead, if they ever find out that there are lots of little islands to conquer and convert down there? Would they even bother with that? (They might if Islam has a collective "Manifest Destiny" mindset, which conquering the known world could do.)

About when would the explorations begin, and when would someone hit America (either from the islands or a European power trying to take a shortcut there and grab some territory by going across the Atlantic)?
 
Eh, that's an awful lot of luck. The Islamic conquests were extremely lucky as it was-anymore and it starts to get a wee bit improbable.

Also, this is just personal opinions, but I tend to find cultural/religious wanks like this a bit dull, as I feel that cultural diversity tends to make for more interesting TLs (in all senses of the word).
 
While a scenario where the dice get weighted in Islam's favor more than OTL is probably possible and worth a timeline, there's a line between "everything, and we mean everything goes right" and...well, let put it this way.

In order for Constantinople to fall, not only do the Muslims need to roll well, but the ERE has to roll badly.

I think it would be better to see a world where the historical triumphs are not rolled back (so the Reconquestia never goes anywhere, for instance), for purposes of a timeline, and go from there.

This is having far too much happen successfully to be plausible, even if any of the events in question can be accepted individually (including the fall of Constantinople).
 
Meh, Constantinople isn't that big a deal. I mean, certainly you're right in positing that the problem was not anything the Muslims did wrong - it's just a hard city to take. But walls are nothing without someone behind them.

Assume a plague in Constantinople just before the Muslims arrive. The emperor is bed ridden or dead, factions are vying in the street, and someone on the losing end cuts a deal and helps the Muslims in. It's not complicated, it's not really unlikely, and it's certainly not unprecedented. Historically speaking, this is usually how the better fortresses are lost - internal schism.
 
It seems unlikely enough that you'd need a very good reason why someone would do it, though. The closest example OTL is the Angeli prior to the 4th Crusade.

I'm not saying it can't happen, though.

And of course, a situation where Constantinople is effected by a plague is probably not a situation where Thrace (at the least) isn't plague riddled, which is a problem for an invading army.

Related problem: Crossing over to Europe (or entering via sea).

Not only do you have to deal with the walls, you have to deal with the navy.
 
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