Weakest USSR could have been at the end of WWII with an Allied Victory

Do you think they will able to enforce the liberation of the Baltics? Denouncing the Soviet for their complicity with the Nazi?
The Soviets would still almost certainly get the Baltics. The West can't realistically get there first without the Soviet war effort actually coming to an end. Post war the West will condemn the Soviet occupation, but towards the end here the West will probably just say something to the effect of letting facts on the ground determine the post war borders.
 
I think it's possible that Allies won with a defeated USSR.
Then that's it: (almost) No USSR after an Allied Victory.
The war lasted much longer than IOTL, maybe ended in 1948-1952.
If Russia is liberated by the allies' army, there will only be a Russia(maybe with central Asia)
If it's liberated by communism guerrillas, there is a very weak USSR.
Yugoslavia will still be liberated by communism guerrillas, I think so would China, but thay may be destoried by the allies later (in the civil war).
 
The bottom line is the USSR will either annex or install communist states on ground they occupy, just like OTL. Had the Russian not been the ones who liberated the vast majority of Czechoslovakia the coup in 1948 probably would not have happened. Tito might very well still take over Yugoslavia as his movement was not so dependent on the Red Army.

The post war USSR was helped in recovery by looting from occupied Germany, leftover Lend-Lease from before the German surrender (trucks, jeeps, locomotives, railroad cars and on and on), and Lend Lease continued until August of 1945 to get the Soviets "ready" to fulfill their obligation to join the war against Japan 3 months after Germany surrendered. Some trickled in after August that was still in the pipeline. All of this stuff was extremely useful in the USSR recovering form immense damage it suffered during the war. Absnet LL, or with a significant reduction in LL the Soviet transportation system postwar will be hopeless - without trains, trucks to move goods long distance and locally, recovery of production will be difficult, and transportation of things like food difficult. Absent the tens of thousands of trucks of all sizes and jeeps still running after the war the USSR now has a a problem - build tractors to feed itself or vehicles to rebuild itself. Other downstream effects as well.
 
Even if a simple PoD I think "no lend lease" will be very significant already in 1942. The Red Army was very weak in most of 1942 as most of the men and materiel available in June 1941 were lost and the factories dismantled in the areas now under German control were still far away from full production in the Urals. What kept the USSR from collapsing in 1942 was the reserve armies being raised in deep Russia and which to a significant degree were equipped with lend-lease equipment - that is at least what Kruchtjev and Zhukov said in their memoirs.

The forces raised in 1942 already were much below standard in training and had to be organised along very simple lines because the available officer corps did not yet have the needed skills and experience to handle units more complex than a brigade. In OTL these units usually "vaporised" after a few days of combat but acted to blunt the Wehrmacht meatgrinder. If we add to that an even worse level of equipment (which already was awful) I think it could very well have been the straw breaking the back of the camel.

And even if the "camel" survives a Red Army with no lend lease will be so much weaker that the prospect of pushing the Germans out of Russia appear remote. Not so much counted in number of tanks delivered from UK and USA to USSR (7.000), but much more in all the other items.

If using the "cost data" from this link: http://knowledgeglue.com/cost-ww2-vehicles/ the 450.000 trucks delivered to USSR in WWII would be equivalent to at least 25.000 T34 tanks. IOW if lend lease hadn't been the Soviets would have produced 26.000 less T34s and missed another 7.000 to produce the 450.000 trucks Lend Lease doesn't deliver. And now we're at logistics 92.7% of the wartime production of railroad equipment by the Soviet Union was supplied under Lend-Lease (incl. almost 2000 locomotives and more than 11.000 railcars). I haven't got cost data on locomotives but I'll guess a locomotive would cost as much as a tank and anyway I think rails were the most important item in the railroad deliveries (ie. steel production capacity). About 50.000 T34s were produced in OTL from 1940 until VE day.

Practically all of the high octane av gas for the Soviets was delivered through Lend Lease. Producing that yourself would have meant a huge and very expensive investment in the Soviet refineries which would have mean less resources elsewhere. http://www.oilru.com/or/47/1006/

A third of the Soviet wartime aircraft production came from Lend Lease.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease

At the time when the Red Army went on the offensive it was largely fed by canned food delivered through Lend Lease. Canned food makes the logistic effort in feeding an army incredibly much easier, especially if you are on the offensive.

All in all I would not hesitate to conclude that a Red Army without Lend Lease will either collapse in 1942 as a field army (might carry on as a partisan force) or it will there after have to fight with about half the equipment/supplies it had in OTL and have very limited offensive power.

I definitely agree the Russians are going to have a real tough time in 41-42 and beyond. I think ultimately they'll hold and will eventually be able to push the Germans back (in part due to W Allied pressure in the West), but for the all the reasons you note, it'll be a much harder slog for the Russians.
 
What's the weakest that the USSR could have been at the end of WWII with an allied victory? What PODs would make the USSR weaker?

I'd go with Moscow being captured in late 41 and Leningrad falling in late 42 with the Russians being pushed back further towards the Urals before the Front stabilises - but despite expectations the Russians cling on and inflict several reverses / pyrrhic victories on the German Army. By the Summer of 43 the Germans are only just able to hang on to their gains and spread out across a major Front.

At the same time have the British being more successful in the Med and the Allies having effectively won the Battle of the Atlantic by Mid 42 allowing for a cross channel invasion in mid 43 backed up by a South of France assault 2 months later - Most of France plus Paris, all of Belgium inc Brussels and large parts of the Netherlands inc Antwerp are liberated by Oct and the Allies are closing on the German Border.

Italy experiences a change in government and the Country effectively joins the Allies on Oct 21st 1943

In Oct 43 Hitlers Personal transport plane "Immelmann III" crashes shortly after take off from the Berlin Tempelhof Airport from causes unknown - all on board are killed including Adolf Hitler

A week long power struggle sees many of the senior Nazi leaders murdered or imprisoned - before the group that is today known as the "Graf Neun" Cabal managed to grab power - these men mainly Old Prussians but also several Field marshals including ultimately Rommel and Von Bock reach out to the western powers seeking a separate peace.

This is rebuffed by the West (much to Stalin's Surprise) and instead after months of deadlock with allied forces having crossed the Rhine in several locations the "Graf Neun" Cabal agrees to terms as well as a General Cease fire and orders its forces in the East to fall back into Germany and largely disarm - an action that takes months and is fraught with multiple breaches of the Ceasefire and many atrocities are conducted during this time particularly in the East and several attempted coups as well as many minor local ones particulalrly by SS and LW units are savagely put down by the Heer and 'loyal' LW units.

Russia already weaker than OTL is ultimately threatened with the spectre of a separate peace in the West and the withdrawal of all LL if they do not agree - and the carrot of further assistance in rebuilding its shattered economy etc if they do.

Stalin tragically suffers a 7.62mm sized Brain Hemorrhage in his Dacha and his successors agree to the West's terms

Meanwhile Churchill badgers and Bullies Roosevelt into allowing Wallied units to move through the Baltic and eventually Germany itself and Occupy the Baltic states, Poland as well as forces in the med Seizing the Balkans and Liberating Greece

With Allied forces stood up in the eastern European nations and having already stood up the former Governments in exile before the Red army closes up with the former CCCP borders and the Soviet Government finds that it has little or no impact on the 'Democratic elections that take place in 1944.
 

Deleted member 1487

I'd go with Moscow being captured in late 41 and Leningrad falling in late 42 with the Russians being pushed back further towards the Urals before the Front stabilises - but despite expectations the Russians cling on and inflict several reverses / pyrrhic victories on the German Army. By the Summer of 43 the Germans are only just able to hang on to their gains and spread out across a major Front
If Moscow falls in 1941, Leningrad would go very soon after because the only double track line to the city left by late 1941 ran from Moscow to Leningrad. Without that the city falls due to lack of supply over winter. The Road of Life depended on the Moscow rail line to Tikhvin. Once both of those cities go the USSR pretty much starts to unravel as they've lost major population and industrial centers and in the case of Moscow electrical production, rail lines running laterally, a major highway hub, and the nexus of the landline telephone wires, not to mention major international prestige.
https://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=219561
If then the Soviets cannot push the Germans off the Volga in 1942 they starve to death, because they were dependent on bringing Ukraine AND Kuban back into production in 1943 (with LL help), but ITTL then they'd not have that, plus have lost Murmansk as a major center for LL imports (important in 1942 specifically), while the Caspian/Persian route of LL comes under major threat. By 1943 then the USSR would be in major famine and collapsing.

Edit-
map of the 1941 Soviet rail system:
http://users.tpg.com.au/adslbam9//Railways1941.png
Railways1941.jpg
 
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If Moscow falls in 1941, Leningrad would go very soon after because the only double track line to the city left by late 1941 ran from Moscow to Leningrad. Without that the city falls due to lack of supply over winter. The Road of Life depended on the Moscow rail line to Tikhvin. Once both of those cities go the USSR pretty much starts to unravel as they've lost major population and industrial centers and in the case of Moscow electrical production, rail lines running laterally, a major highway hub, and the nexus of the landline telephone wires, not to mention major international prestige.
https://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=219561
If then the Soviets cannot push the Germans off the Volga in 1942 they starve to death, because they were dependent on bringing Ukraine AND Kuban back into production in 1943 (with LL help), but ITTL then they'd not have that, plus have lost Murmansk as a major center for LL imports (important in 1942 specifically), while the Caspian/Persian route of LL comes under major threat. By 1943 then the USSR would be in major famine and collapsing.

Edit-
map of the 1941 Soviet rail system:
http://users.tpg.com.au/adslbam9//Railways1941.png

Its a work in progress.....
 

samcster94

Banned
I could see that when the Germans surrender the Russians may be somewhere in Poland, possibly east of Warsaw if the rising by the Poles does better, part way in Hungary, maybe part of Slovakia. The western Allies Occupy all of Austria, and occupation of any part of Germany by the Russians is not physically connected but rather the western Allies hand some land over to them temporarily.
I've seen timelines where Poland is divided instead of Germany in that kind of scenario.
 
Use Lend-Lease as a weapon to de-stabilize Soviet production.

Start by sending massive numbers of 'good enough' tanks and airplanes: M3 Lee/Grant tanks and Curtis P-40 Warhawks along with many squadrons of repaired Hurricane fighters.
This relieves pressure on Russian factories to produce fighter planes and tanks. Instead, Russian factories are forced to build trucks and railroads.
Also - early on - send massive numbers of tankers laden with high-octane gasoline .... relieving pressure on Soviet refineries to convert for producing high-octane gasoline.
Fast forward to 1944, just when Soviet Armies are advancing into Poland and East Germany, supplies of high-wear components like tires and tracks and spark plugs and ammo and high-octane gasoline dry up. Soviet troops are stranded in East Germant without enough beans or bullets to defend themselves. Soviet advances stall while WALLIES 'liberate' all of Germany, Austria, East Prussia, Czechoslovakia, and much of Poland.
 
Use Lend-Lease as a weapon to de-stabilize Soviet production.

Start by sending massive numbers of 'good enough' tanks and airplanes: M3 Lee/Grant tanks and Curtis P-40 Warhawks along with many squadrons of repaired Hurricane fighters.
This relieves pressure on Russian factories to produce fighter planes and tanks. Instead, Russian factories are forced to build trucks and railroads.
Also - early on - send massive numbers of tankers laden with high-octane gasoline .... relieving pressure on Soviet refineries to convert for producing high-octane gasoline.
Fast forward to 1944, just when Soviet Armies are advancing into Poland and East Germany, supplies of high-wear components like tires and tracks and spark plugs and ammo and high-octane gasoline dry up. Soviet troops are stranded in East Germant without enough beans or bullets to defend themselves. Soviet advances stall while WALLIES 'liberate' all of Germany, Austria, East Prussia, Czechoslovakia, and much of Poland.
Yours good enough tanks M3 were called by Soviet crew Братская могила на шестерых - Grave for six brothers.
 

Deleted member 1487

Yours good enough tanks M3 were called by Soviet crew Братская могила на шестерых - Grave for six brothers.
As opposed to the T-34, grave for 5 brothers... :p
 
As opposed to the T-34, grave for 5 brothers... :p
Well all tanks were basically coffins. But here you are mistaken. T-34's with 76 mm guns had only crew of four. :p
But it really had to be piece of work if Soviets disn't like it. Soviets crews were founded on Shermans on other side.
 

Deleted member 1487

Well all tanks were basically coffins. But here you are mistaken. T-34's with 76 mm guns had only crew of four. :p
But it really had to be piece of work if Soviets disn't like it. Soviets crews were founded on Shermans on other side.
Forgot the two man turret. Got me. Of course that is part of the reason it was a coffin. Yeah the M3 was not particularly beloved, but that was due to the lower velocity gun, high silhouette, riveted armor, and worse mobility than a Panzer. Compared to a T-34 it was worse. Compare the M4 to a T-34 and the M4 comes out on top. The T-34/85 wasn't around yet of course, but then the 76mm M4 was probably it's equal in many ways.
 
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