Weaker Japan = Axis China?

Reading Faeelin's Legacy of Sun-Yat Sen's TL I came with the conclusion that he had Lettow-Vorbeck seizing power in Germany as a way to write a better TL for China but not at the cost of making it the worst TL possible for Europe - i.e. an Axis Victory. China is "good" as long as her cooperation is with Weimar Germany, and a TL in which the Nazis still raise to power, but after a bloody coup or a German civil war instead of the peaceful way of OTL gaves a window in which China can cut relations with the new German regime and still join the Allies in WW2. Yet, what if the most probable scenario happens - i.e. Germany goes from Weimar to the 3rd Reich peacefully, but China is in a better shape, unifies itself and throws Japan behind the Korean border?

An obvious result is that the Nazis will not change China for Japan as their ally in Asia and possible card to attack the USSR from the back; maybe the Axis is still proclaimed in the ATL, but it is a Rome-Berlin-Nanjing instead of a Rome-Berlin-Tokyo. After all, I think Hitler came close to consider the Chinese as the "aryans of Asia" instead of the Japanese, and his depiction of the Japanese in Mein Kampft isn't very kinder. After Operation Barbarossa begins, an united Nationalist China could possibly invade the Russian Far East or at least Soviet-backed Mongolia from the back door. As all those territories were former Chinese ones, the Chinese would have more reasons to take them than the Japanese. On the other hand, a weaker Japan could remain quiet or reconsider its former alliance with Britain, and the British could encourage the Japanese to attack Germany's comrade in Asia while their naval forces are diverted to Europe. And the USA would have not Pearl Harbor as a reason to join the war.

What could happen then? An Axis Victory would be horrible in general. An Allied victoy, with Japan in the Allied side and China in the defeated Axis, would be horrible for China. How could this evolve later? A Sino-German Cold War? A Western-Japanese one? Would the Chinese treat better the Russians than the Germans and protect them from their allies in case of Axis victory? Would the Allies tolerate Japanese actions in China after victory? In any case, it's clear the world would be very different today.
 
I suppose the best possible outcome is one where the Axis loses, but Nationalist China kicks Japan off the mainland. (Assuming Japan winds up with the Allies, Japanese and Allied power almost certainly keep Taiwan and Korea in Japanese hands, and Hong Kong/Macao are probably safe.)

No firebombing of Japan and no Nationalist Taiwan saves at least 4-5 million people. No Chinese civil war and the possibility of an early Japanese defeat on the mainland (perhaps German advisors and outdated equipment head into Japan before the European part of WW2 kicks off), at least outside the coastal strip, saves upwards of 10-20 million and may stop the worst of the Japanese atrocities.

A Japan that cannot go around conquering Allied territory is good for their relations with Asia (except Burma) and hence the postwar situation is better.

North Korea is far better off under Japanese rule instead of the Communists, although South Korea will not be. Taiwan as well, at least for a few decades is also better off under the Japanese instead of the Nationalists.

China is likely better off under the Nationalists than the Communists (once you get up to Mao's butshit insane period anyway).



The future is trickier. Does Japan reform? If not, than very quickly OTL Japan is going to be better than the ATL versions. Does China reform? Even if not they're still probably better off until, at least, somewhere around now.

What happens to a Russia that probably controls less of Europe? (Assuming America gets involved in the ATL WW2 their landing craft resources can go to Europe.) What happens to a Russia with less of Europe, and a hostile China & militarized Japan?

Without Japan kicking out the colonials what happens in Asia?
 
The thing is what do you mean by "joining the axis"?

Except for a degree of mutual opponents and information sharing, Japan and Germany had limited links. They were 'allies' by the fact their goals didn't conflict and they had mutual foes. You essentially have two wars ocurring at the same time and the USA/Britain etc just happen to be involved in both. Japan and the USSR were not at war untill the very end.

The question would be why is nationalist China going to war exactly? Even if Germany is trading information, technology etc they are unlikely to declare war just because a power half the world away wishes they would. Hitler is quite unusual in that regard (although he had his own reasons for doing so).

Are they going after the material wealth of South East Asia? This will be difficult to impossible with limited naval capacity and Japanese (not to mention British/American etc) opposition.

If they go after the USSR will the western allies care very much? Its possible the USSR might try and draw them into the conflict but its equally possible that they simply refuse. You therefore have a limited Sino-Soviet war.

Further more it is quite possible for Germany to be defeated and China not to be. Sure I suspect people will jump in here with 'The USA just stockpiles nuclear weapons for a few years and inevitably wipes China out!' but negotiation seems just as possible since total victory on the ground is unlikely. Well, depending in what state China is in by 1940~.
 

KunlunShan

Banned
For this to work you would have to have the CCP be without a Mao, so that the KMT can develop China into a strong country in peace. They could do something similar to what is happening now, build a large military (with tech help from Germany), and put a lot of influence on Asia, maybe even turning Japan and others into satellite states. Maybe we'll have a Cold War between China and the USA!
 
The thing is what do you mean by "joining the axis"?

Except for a degree of mutual opponents and information sharing, Japan and Germany had limited links. They were 'allies' by the fact their goals didn't conflict and they had mutual foes. You essentially have two wars ocurring at the same time and the USA/Britain etc just happen to be involved in both. Japan and the USSR were not at war untill the very end.

Well, China and Germany have not clashing spheres of influence either. On the other hand, both have reasons to attack the USSR. Instead of 2 simultaneous wars, this could develop into a true only one conflict.

The question would be why is nationalist China going to war exactly? Even if Germany is trading information, technology etc they are unlikely to declare war just because a power half the world away wishes they would. Hitler is quite unusual in that regard (although he had his own reasons for doing so).
I was imagining a scenario in which China and Japan went to war in the 30s and China won. Nationalist China controls all the territory the PRCh has today (maybe Uighuristan and Tibet just barely controled, however). Manchuria and Port Arthur are Chinese, Taiwan and Korea still Japanese. In this case, I suppose that China, not needing to care about Japan, could go for Mongolia (it's independence is not recognized by the Republic of China even today) taking advantage of the Soviet Union being concentrated on the German invasion. And once Mongolia is submitted and the Germans still fighting at the gates of Moscow, the Chinese could be tempted to retake the territories lost to Russia in the late 19th century: Tuva and the Russian Far East. In fact, Tuva was briefly invaded by China during the Russian Civil War, so it doesn't seem an unlikely target at all.

Are they going after the material wealth of South East Asia? This will be difficult to impossible with limited naval capacity and Japanese (not to mention British/American etc) opposition.
Obviously no. Japan invaded SE Asia because it needed her resources to conquer China. Plus, China probably doesn't have a true naval force and has concentrated on building her land forces. It could be interesting, however, if China invades French Indochina in alliance with Siam during the Battle of France, and turns it into a series of puppet kingdoms.

If they go after the USSR will the western allies care very much? Its possible the USSR might try and draw them into the conflict but its equally possible that they simply refuse. You therefore have a limited Sino-Soviet war.
Yeah, but Britain and the USSR are allies and the British forces in Asia and the Pacific don't have work to do if Japan isn't an enemy. That's why I suppose that the British and the Japanese would try to help the Russians on their back front.

Further more it is quite possible for Germany to be defeated and China not to be. Sure I suspect people will jump in here with 'The USA just stockpiles nuclear weapons for a few years and inevitably wipes China out!' but negotiation seems just as possible since total victory on the ground is unlikely. Well, depending in what state China is in by 1940~.
Interesting aftermath. Do you think the USA could be involved at all? I know Roosevelt wanted to go to war with the Germans but the Chinese aren't going to attack Pearl Harbor or the Philippines.
 
I was imagining a scenario in which China and Japan went to war in the 30s and China won. Nationalist China controls all the territory the PRCh has today (maybe Uighuristan and Tibet just barely controled, however). Manchuria and Port Arthur are Chinese, Taiwan and Korea still Japanese. In this case, I suppose that China, not needing to care about Japan, could go for Mongolia (it's independence is not recognized by the Republic of China even today) taking advantage of the Soviet Union being concentrated on the German invasion. And once Mongolia is submitted and the Germans still fighting at the gates of Moscow, the Chinese could be tempted to retake the territories lost to Russia in the late 19th century: Tuva and the Russian Far East. In fact, Tuva was briefly invaded by China during the Russian Civil War, so it doesn't seem an unlikely target at all.

Well its very possible. I suspect the damage of even a victorious war with Japan in the 1930's might make such an attack unwise but flushed with victory and with the USSR distracted elsewhere it could occur.

Yeah, but Britain and the USSR are allies and the British forces in Asia and the Pacific don't have work to do if Japan isn't an enemy. That's why I suppose that the British and the Japanese would try to help the Russians on their back front.

Well the British forces in Asia can either be employed elsewhere or the expansion of the Indian army to fight Japan need simply not occur. If the British and Japan remain allies its a possibility I suppose. The British are involved in a life or death struggle themselves, they probably don't want war with China unless forced. Japan would likely want revenge from a defeat in the 1930's although that would likely have considerable social effects throughout Japan and long-term strategic change on both sides is probably required to maintain a British-Japanese alliance.

Interesting aftermath. Do you think the USA could be involved at all? I know Roosevelt wanted to go to war with the Germans but the Chinese aren't going to attack Pearl Harbor or the Philippines.

With China possibly not. I tend to be of the school of thought that the USA will go to war with Germany, it is only a matter of time. Similar reasons to WW1 exist. German submarines provide provocation and the realisation that Britain throwing in the towel does not serve long term American interests is another. Sino-American relations might be quite interesting in this timeline.
 
I was imagining a scenario in which China and Japan went to war in the 30s and China won. Nationalist China controls all the territory the PRCh has today (maybe Uighuristan and Tibet just barely controled, however).

It's worth noting that Xinjiang/Uighuristan were ruled by a Soviet client state in the '30s, so there would need to be an earlier Sino-Soviet war to permit this.

Obviously, the region could become one of the targets of Chinese ambitions.
 
Top