We Were Martyrs - Lithuania Fights in 1940

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WE WERE MARTYRS
"Mes buvome kankiniai"

1940-1940
June 15th. 1940. Midnight.

In the Western world, thousands of British and French soldiers were desperately evacuating France after the disastrous clash with the German Wehrmacht, in what was later known as Operation Ariel. Paris was already lost, with Nazi soldiers parading across this City of Light, and hundreds of thousands were dead after a Blitz across the Lowlands. People across the British Commonwealth and the United States were at the edge of their seats - what is going to happen in France? Where will the Hitlerite aggression stop? What is the fate of Europe, and is Britain next on Germany's list?

But just because the Westerners were focused on France, it doesn't mean that absolutely nothing was happening elsewhere...

In Kaunas, the temporary capital of the Republic of Lithuania - the preparations for moving back to Vilnius, handed back by the Soviets on October 1939, were still not finished - the lights were on in the Presidential Palace throughout the whole night. In the office room of President Antanas Smetona, the revered and honored leader of this authoritarian republic for almost two decades, the entire Cabinet of Ministers, along with a few additional persons, were discussing a single page document, sitting calmly on the table. Everyone was here - First Minister Antanas Merkys, Foreign Minister Juozas Urbšys, the rest of the Ministers, and finally both the current and former Commander-In-Chiefs, Vladas Vitkauskas and Stasys Raštikis. Despite this being the most urgent part of the tiny Baltic republic's life, the room was strangely silent.

The paper in front of them didn't lie. After brought up to a visit to Moscow, Urbšys was handed it by Vyacheslav Molotov himself, who followed it up with two words:

"Good luck"

The words written in the paper were simple and laconic, declaring that the Republic of Lithuania is guilty for kidnapping and torturing three Soviet officers stationed on the border, even though there was zero proof brought of such a claim, conspiring against the Soviet Union along with Latvia and Estonia and "not committing enough to the Soviet-Lithuanian Mutual Assistance Pact of October 1939". The Soviet Union demanded to be allowed to send an "unspecified" among of troops into the territory of the Republic of Lithuania, extradite people responsible for the kidnapping and to replace the current government of the nation with one that would be able to adhere to the Mutual Assistance Pact. Lithuania was given 10 hours to send a response, and absence of response would mean a denial.

It was, in essence, an ultimatum demanding de facto occupation of the Republic of Lithuania. And the opinions on this matter differed among the Ministers.

President Smetona was willing to fight. Throughout 22 years of independence, Lithuania spent over a billion Litas on it's armed forces, turning them into a moderately capable, though somewhat confused force, lacking a solid doctrine, or even a plan in this situation. In his eyes, a few units should hold off the Soviets for long enough to let the Government and the rest of the army to escape through Germany. But there were holes in this plan. Lithuania was not mobilized, and it's standing forces were meager compared to the 300 000 troops that were prepared to roll through Lithuania. Plus, since October of 1939, there were about 20 000 Soviet troops based in Lithuania for "protecting the nation" as part of the Mutual Assistance Treaty. These bases were, unfortunately, placed mere kilometers away from Kaunas and Vilnius, the two most important cities in the Republic. What did Lithuania get in exchange for this practical loss of independence? The Vilnius Region returned to the nation.

This situation led to the rise of a common Lithuanian joke to describe the situation - "Vilnius - mūsų, o mes - rusų" ("Vilnius - ours, but we - [owned by] Russians")

In contrast, Merkys and a few of the ministers were against the idea of resistance. According to the First Minister, the Soviet troops that have been based in Lithuania since October have been exceptionally disciplined and have not caused a single mishap yet, so why should more Soviet troops do anything worse? Some still believed that the Soviets were willing to preserve Lithuania's independence, and that they will be willing to only stick to what is written in the ultimatum. As in, they will not try to turn Lithuania into a Soviet Republic, they won't try to deport the Lithuanians, that would be too risky for them. Merkys hoped that the West will support them. But the West, as said before, was busy with it's own war. Angering the Soviet Union by trying to protect the Baltics would be the dumbest move they could do right now.

But will giving up independence and shamefully surrendering to the Soviets show a good example to the Lithuanian people? The same nation that shed it's blood in the Wars of Independence to avoid this exact situation? Is Lithuania really going to go down without a fight? Especially when battles with worse odds have been won by our ancestors?

On the morning of June 15th, the Government of Lithuania issued a decree of mass mobilization. All reserve units and soldiers were to immediately enter service at the nearest Lithuanian military base, all members of the Riflemen Union (the Šauliai, a Lithuanian paramilitary organization focused on civilian training and resistance preparations) were to immediately mobilize, and all regular units were immediately activated and ordered to prepare for defense. This is not an exercise! I repeat! This is not an exercise! These words for be heard echoing across all Lithuanian cities...

On 8:05, Vilnius Time, a telegram arrived to the People's Commissariat for Foreign Affairs of the Soviet Union in Moscow, with only three words:

"THE GOVERNMENT DECLINES."
 
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Map of the Soviet invasion of Lithuania in 1940:
Lietuva - Lithuania
SSRS - USSR
Latvija - Latvia
Vokietija - Germany
Purple ovals and lines are gathering spots and movement of Soviet armies in June of 1940
Soviet airborne assault in Šiauliai is marked. Territorial changes of Lithuania from 1939 to 1941 are marked.

The declination of the ultimatum took the Soviet authorities by surprise. Their overarching plan was to make sure the Lithuanians agree, and then use local communists as a ploy to convince the world that the Baltic nation joined voluntarily. Now that the Lithuanians declined and were ready to fight, this entire idea fell to ruins. Nevertheless, the Soviet forces shrugged, roared their tank engines and went forward.

The numbers were on their side, after all. The 3rd and 11th Armies, belonging in the Baltic Front led by Semyon Timoshenko, stationed right next to the Lithuanian border had over 250 000 personnel, operated 1200 airplanes and 1500 tanks. 18 000 Soviet troops were located within Lithuanian territory in military bases, and were given orders to attack. The Armed Forces of the Republic of Lithuania had about 20 000 regulars, 120 000 reservists and Riflemen members, only 110 airplanes, and about 20 light tanks. From an outsider's perspective, it was supposed to be an easy peasy march, and the Soviets planned about 3-4 days of combat before the Balts break and surrender.

Hundreds of Soviet planes rose to the skies, waking up the people of Lithuania in that warm morning with a shower of bombs dropped across districts of Vilnius, Kaunas, Alytus, Panevėžys and Šiauliai. In response, the fighter squadrons of the Lithuanian Air Force took off for it's first military action since 1920. Compared to the Land forces, the Air detachment were unreasonably underfunded, only receiving about 1/20 of the entire military budget, but it was pulled up by talented Lithuanian pilots and engineers. The ANBO reconnaissance series, constructed by Antanas Gustaitis, saw it's first military use - designed to be extremely agile, fast and easy to construct, the ANBO-III and ANBO-IV biplanes easily sped past the I-5, MiG and Lavochkin planes that the Soviets used as their primary fighters. Unfortunately, speed was not everything...

The story of the aerial battle across the Lithuanian skies was a story of heroes - the story of Antanas Gudrevičius, a Lithuanian pilot who sent his plane against an entire squadron of Russian bombers, the story of Rimantas Malinauskas, who, despite losing his entire squad, did not yield, and instead sent his ANBO-IV to crash into a Soviet tank column, and many, many others. But it was not a story of successful ones. Within five hours, the Soviet Union obtained complete aerial superiority over Lithuania, the Kaunas Air Base was bombed and the hangars were destroyed, and the wings of the Baltic nation were clipped.

The news of the Lithuanian-Soviet War arrived to the people on June 15th, usually via radio message or after hearing about it from neighbors, loved ones, friends, enemies, whatever. The response to the call to arms against the Soviet aggressor in the name of the Republic of Lithuania was a resounding and overwhelming cry of "We will fight!". The Riflemen Union was mobilized immediately, thousands of reservists signed up to defend their country, and even those who weren't in the military - veterans of the Independence Wars, the youth, the old, the women and the men - were willing to take arms and stand in the frontlines. Even though Lithuania had been a dictatorship since 1926, and the opposition was deeply against the authoritarian President, all these differences seemed to vanish in the blink of an eye.

Vilnius, the ancient and eternal capital of Lithuania, was the first to fall. In the morning of June 15th, the Soviet garrison in Naujoji Vilnia marched into the city. They were supported by 50 000 attacking Soviet troops. Vilnius only had a single regiment garrisoned, but the people of the city rallied behind them. Lithuanian, Polish, Belarusian or Jewish - there wasn't a difference. Civilians erected barricades and palisades, pulled sofas and beds from their houses to further the construction, gathered hunting rifles, spades, shovels, farming tools and scythes to arm themselves... 50 tanks rolled through the city. Those who tried to resist were run over, hastily erected barricades were knocked over and crushed, and any captured Lithuanian soldiers were disarmed and arrested. Hoping to incite fear and thus pacify the population, the Soviet soldiers followed a simple doctrine - even the faintest shot heard will result in retaliation via machine gun, be it a civilian or a soldier who shot. Street fighting across the city continued for hours between Soviet soldiers and Lithuanian Riflemen and mobilized units, but despite the fervor of the defenders, the sheer size of the invasion ensured victory to them. 400 remaining Lithuanian defenders set up defense around the Tower of Gediminas - one of the biggest symbols of the city and the last remnant of the medieval castle that once stood here. Soviet infantry attacks were repulsed, despite heavy losses among the defenders. The division commander then called in a bomber raid - and so was done. 50 Soviet bombers razed the structure and the defenders among them into the ground, turning it into brick ash for the citizens of Vilnius to weep at.

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Soviet troops drive across the Cathedral Square in Vilnius

Soviet troops attacked from two major directions - south and east. In the south, the Soviet troops followed the Nemunas River on a direct course to Kaunas, where intense street fighting between Lithuanian civilian defenders and Soviet base troops was ongoing. This is where they were stopped by the 3rd "Grand Duke Vytautas" Infantry Regiment in Jieznas. In the Battle of Jieznas, about 5 000 Lithuanian regulars faced roughly 80 000 Soviets, along a forested marsh next to a small river, tributary of Nemunas. This was an attempt to delay the Soviet forces long enough to allow the Government enough time to escape along with the leftovers of the Military. Led by Petras Genys, these men knew what they were signing up for, but only a few backed down, fleeing out of sheer fear. The rest stayed.

These men, children of the Lithuanian nation, had to delay the advance of an entire army!..

Near the village of Jieznas, the 3rd Regiment prepared their defense, and when the choked, massive, barely fitting in the small roads, Soviet forces attacked the entire region in a wide front, the machine guns opened fire. Immediately getting surrounded, the Lithuanian defenders used pretty much everything they had at their disposal - mines were placed in the grasslands to take down at least a few tanks, improvised grenades were built from materials in the village, and when the ammunition began to ran out, knives, straightened lying scythes and spades were out to work.

Despite being outnumbered 18:1. Despite being surrounded. Despite having inferior weapons and pretty much no vehicles. Despite having no air support. Despite the odds. The defenders at Jieznas held out almost a day before the remainders, now only 300 men large, wounded, sick and weak, dispersed into the forests. A lot of the help was from the local population, who worked behind the lines to attack Soviet supply trucks, sabotage roads and infrastructure and even sometimes attack Russian units and artillery positions with clubs and scythes. This uncollaborational attitude held by the Lithuanians infuriated the Soviet war leadership so much that they ordered to enact "punishment" against the locals - and by "punishment" meaning "burning down dozens of villages and executing hundreds across the region".

In the East, matters were not going too well, too. The Soviet forces attacked a wide front, but were soon met with stiff civilian resistance. Riflemen units attacked the invaders in constant small skirmishes, which descended into forest guerilla warfare. The civilians were unwilling to help in directions, providing food or supplies. Quite the opposite, they started to sabotage the Soviet efforts to advance. Semyon Timoshenko, in response to this mess, ordered the Soviet forces to put Eastern Lithuania to the sword - that is, use violence to enforce loyalty. It was said, thus it was done. Utena and Zarasai were raided for supplies, the local garrisons were destroyed, most of them killed in fights. The wooden church of Palūšė, an architectural marble, built in the 16th century, was burned down by marauding Soviet soldiers. 9800 locals were executed for "treason", many more were interned and arrested to be later sent to the Gulags across Siberia and Central Asia. Farms and villages were burned and pillaged for disloyalty, and the brutality of Soviet soldiers was obscene. Murder without questions, rape, torture - you name it. But the Lithuanian morale did not falter. The Soviet advance was slowed down near the Nevėžis river, where a desperate Lithuanian resistance of 25 000 men managed to hold the Red advance, using the river as a natural obstacle.

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Lithuanian soldiers in a defensive position near Kėdainiai

Three days after the ultimatum, on June 18th, 1940, over half of the territory of Lithuania was already occupied. The Soviets took Vilnius, most of Aukštaitija, Dzūkija, and closed in on Kaunas, which was getting surrounded on three sides. A Soviet detachment of 5000 troops landed in Šiauliai to clear out Žemaitija, but they were soon defeated and forced to retreat to friendly bases in Latvian Curonia. 35 000 people, mostly civilians, were already dead. The situation was no longer salvageable. Lithuania was lost. On a final decree on the evening of the 18th, President Smetona declared his resignation as President of the Republic of Lithuania, leaving all matters of the state to regional military commanders. The Government of Lithuania, the garrisons in Marijampolė and Tauragė and thousands of civilians, most notably intelligentsia, began to evacuate from the nation towards Germany. The defense of Kaunas was left to the 5th "Grand Duke Kęstutis" Infantry Regiment, led by Albinas Čepas.

The day before, 9 Lithuanian communist leaders, most notably Justas Paleckis and Mykolas Burokevičius, were hanged in the Freedom Alley (Laisvės alėja) for pro-Soviet agitation and sentiment in Kaunas. This execution of fellow communists did not bode well with the Soviets, but a traitor is a traitor.

3000 Lithuanians, backed by the civilians of the city, were left to defend the capital of their nation and delay the Soviets long enough to allow the rest to escape...
 
I wonder how this will impact Polish-Lithuanian relations during and after the war. I doubt the Russians will give Wilno/Vilnius back to Lithuania in 1945--but would that mean it gets attached to the Belarussian SSR or to Red Poland? As to relations between the undergrounds, the Polish government-in-exile took an explicitly anti-Soviet line until June 22, 1941 (and resumed it a few years later), so perhaps there's some room for an improvement in relations between Poland and Lithuania, and cooperation between the undergrounds.
 
Albinas Čepas knew well what he was going into.

It was a sacrifice. He was the sacrifice. His men were the sacrifice.

The remaining inhabitants of Kaunas were quick to join the garrison in preparing for a desperate, last ditch defense. Barricades and palisades were erected in hours. Thousands signed up for helping the soldiers defend the nation. Tanks, armored vehicles and simple trucks were pulled from the reserve, and the remaining stocks of ammunition were hoarded to make sure there were enough. The yellow-green-blue tricolor flew high above the Presidential Palace, reminding the people of what they were fighting for.

On midnight of June 19th, the Soviet forces arrived. Stronger than ever. The streets in the outskirts of Kaunas were choked by thousands of Red Army soldiers marching forward. Tanks rolled across the streets, crushing the pavement and any bystanders beneath them. Women and children who stayed in the houses closed their windows and doors and cowered in fear. Dozens of bomber squadrons flew across the skies of the city, overlooking the Lithuanian defenses and fortifications. Examining them, preparing the bombs... The zooming biplanes meant doom, they meant destruction and fear...

Soviet soldiers opened with submachine gun fire, and the Lithuanians were quick to retaliate... not just with bullets, but with a song...

"Lietuva, tėvyne mūsų..."

The Yakovlev bombers, upon hearing a radio transmission approving it, opened the hatches and unleashed a shower of bombs at the city of Kaunas - not even trying to hit the defenders, just sparing no one, be it innocent or armed.

"Tu, didvyrių žeme..."

Soviet tanks rolled across hastily constructed palisades, crushing the planks, sofas, bricks and human bones beneath their tracks. One of the Lithuanian soldiers placed a mine right under one of the tanks, blowing it's wheels, as well, as half of his body, to pieces...

"Iš gėrybės tavo sūnūs..."

A Soviet soldier was seen assaulting a fleeing Lithuanian woman, only to be cut down by a Lithuanian Rifleman with his weapon's bayonet. Unfortunately, this saving grace lasted only a few seconds, as the remaining group of soldiers shot him down from the side and moved in to continue what their comrade started.

"Te stiprybę semia..."

Faced with extremely tough resistance in the Freedom Alley, where dozens of Riflemen held on to the last inches of their lives, the Soviet infantry ordered an artillery barrage to clear the field out. The radio transmission was successfully heard, and mere minutes later, what used to be the heart of the cultural life of the Republic of Lithuania was turned into a hellish shower of explosive shells.

"Tegul tavo vaikai eina..."

Holding the rifle of his slain father, a teenage boy rushed to the nearest barricade, hoping to avenge him by blood. Unfortunately, you can't expect to be able to use a gun well without ever training to use it. Especially not when a volley of machine gun shots is heading your way while you're trying to learn why the stick isn't shooting...

"Vien takais dorybės..."

The men of the 5th Regiment fulfilled their mission.

As they wished.

As they hoped.

Forgotten by the world, dying in mud, dropping on the pavement.

Three days after the Battle of Kaunas, the last ounces of official Lithuanian resistance in Žemaitija were defeated. A friendly government under the Lithuanian Communist Party and Mečislovas Gedvilas as the "leader" was installed. In order to show that it was indeed a liberation war and not an aggressive one, the Soviets forced the locals into pro-Communist marches and rallies across the nation, "celebrating" the "liberators". Similar ultimatums were handed to Latvia and Estonia, which used the week-long war to evacuate as many documents and government officials as possible. This time, the two Baltic states surrendered without a fight, knowing that they are completely surrounded.

A few months later, all of the Baltic states were incorporated into the USSR as Soviet Republics. The exact same thing that Merkys believed would never happen.

About 25 000 people managed to flee Lithuania as emigrés, most of them settling in the United States. Antanas Smetona became the figurehead of the Supreme Committee for the Liberation of Lithuania (VLIK). While the organization was largely symbolic and mainly operated in the West, it's biggest achievement was getting the United States and most of the Western world to declare the annexation of the Baltics as illegitimate.

Aside for the many refugees, the war caused 40 000 deaths, casualties and arrests in it's only week. Lithuania's resistance against Soviet occupation made it a thorn in the eyes of the Stalinist government, and in order to root out any possible resistance elements, the Soviets began a series of deportations that started in the winter of 1940.

And the cut off by the "Great Patriotic War". Lithuanians threw themselves at the Germans, immediately rising up across the nation to further their cause, hoping to obtain independence with German hands. The Hitlerite regime said no. The establishment of Reichskommissariat Ostland and the destruction of Lithuanian self-governing bodies marked the end if these hopes, and turned Lithuania against the Germans as well as against the Soviets. Armament and partisan warfare began across the nation, and numerous anti-partisan campaigns did nothing to stop the resistance. This was the time of the Lithuanian Liberation Front. Cooperating with the Armia Krajowa - despite the Interwar hostilities between Poles and Lithuanians, distress turned them into allies - the LLF launched Operation Ostra Brama, taking over Vilnius in the last inches of 1944, only to be kicked out by the attacking Soviets.

Lithuanian partisan warfare, despite deportations and pressure by NKVD units, continued on until 1960, when the last units surrendered. The activity of the Forest Brothers marked one of the longest guerilla wars in European history, starting in 1940 and ending two decades later.

And causing even more deaths...

But despite the blood shed and the exhaustion, the Singing Revolution did not wait...

------
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Transcript of the speech made by President Andrius Kubilius on the 70 year commemmoration of the Lithuanian-Soviet War on June 15th, 2010, in Kaunas:

"The war between the Soviet Union and Lithuania, and what succeeded it... it was a genocide. A slow, unnoticeable, but actual genocide. World War II alone caused over a fourth of Lithuania's population to be lost - forty thousand in the first War, one hundred and fifth thousand in the Holocaust, one hundred thousand deported, another fifty thousand in the German-Soviet conflict... It was a tragedy.

What our forefathers did in 1940 may look crazy or suicidal to someone from the West, but it was a necessity. We all knew that the Soviet Union will destroy the Lithuanian nation and shape it into something in their liking whether we fought or not. But there was a difference - if we put our weapons down and allowed the Russians to roll through Kaunas and Vilnius with no resistance, then there will be no example for the future generations on how to defend their country. When I worked in Sąjūdis, we used to talk about, say, the 5th Regiment and the battles of the Lithuanian-Soviet War, a lot. And we told ourselves - that fight will not be in vain. We will take the helm of that fight and continue it. And we did. Look at where we are now.

That war... that war showed the true side of what the Soviet man is. Many of us thought that there is no problem with inviting them in to settle in bases near Kaunas. What are they going to do? Well, they did a lot. If it weren't for the sympathy of the Sniečkus government for the Lithuanians, we would never have rebuilt Kaunas. They would've left it as a ruined city for pigs and farmers until it rotted down. We would've never regained the Tower of Gediminas. And remember - these are only the things we managed to rebuild. The Church of Šiluva - burned down. The Church of Palūšė - destroyed. The Trakai Castle - rotten and impossible to renovate. Thousands of valuable world of art and gold were looted and never returned.

And they not only tried to destroy our country - they tried to destroy our spirit. The younger listeners may not remember this, but the Soviet government quite literally denied us the names of our cities. Vilnius renamed to Chernyakhovsk, Kaunas - to Timoshenko. If you ever use "Vilnius" or "Kaunas", you go to jail. Or a mental hospital. Using the words "5th Regiment" in any way that might seem patriotic? The same fate. But no matter how hard they tried, they underestimated our national pride.

Those soldiers who fought at impossible odds - they were martyrs. We were martyrs. Martyrs for the Lithuanian nation, which was ripped out of their hands for five decades..."​
 
And finished!

This was a bit of a quick scenario. Very popular here in Lithuania, but hasn't appeared once in this site.

Make sure to tell what you think below! I'll be sure to answer all of your questions if you have any!
 
I wonder how this will impact Polish-Lithuanian relations during and after the war. I doubt the Russians will give Wilno/Vilnius back to Lithuania in 1945--but would that mean it gets attached to the Belarussian SSR or to Red Poland? As to relations between the undergrounds, the Polish government-in-exile took an explicitly anti-Soviet line until June 22, 1941 (and resumed it a few years later), so perhaps there's some room for an improvement in relations between Poland and Lithuania, and cooperation between the undergrounds.
Vilnius was actually returned to Lithuania after World War II, since it had been controlled by it since 1939, but the border regions that were given in 1941 were not (so Lithuania is ever so slightly smaller ITTL). Vilnius itself was renamed to Chernyakhovsk during the Soviet period, after the Soviet general who led his forces to recapture the city, but was re-renamed during the National Revival in 1989. Same with Kaunas, with the Soviet name Timoshenko.

There was indeed cooperation between Armia Krajowa and the Lithuanian resistance! Most notably in Operation Ostra Brama in 1944. Poland was also one of the first countries to recognize Lithuania's independence in 1991, in light of this WW2 cooperation.
 
Good, very good TL. Now, butterflies caused by war between Soviet Unon and Lithuania can mess in post-war Europe. I hope that you'll decide to continue writing about that.
 
Good, very good TL. Now, butterflies caused by war between Soviet Unon and Lithuania can mess in post-war Europe. I hope that you'll decide to continue writing about that.
This would require me to do a lot of research to determine exactly what would change, though...

Maybe I'll find time to write something about that someday.
 
@Augenis Every change made in the past, even a little one cause great changes in human history. Death of thousands people who OTL never died change our history forever. Who knows - maybe Soviet Union would never disappear from world map due to lack of one of politicians, for example - Brezhnev and Khrushchev were commissars during World War II - if one of them dies history would be drastically different - no Khrushchev Thaw, lesser or even bigger de-stalinization, no Brezhnev stagnation, rise of Bonapartist Soviet Union. Your TL has great potential and it would be unwise to end this at this point.
 
@Augenis Every change made in the past, even a little one cause great changes in human history. Death of thousands people who OTL never died change our history forever. Who knows - maybe Soviet Union would never disappear from world map due to lack of one of politicians, for example - Brezhnev and Khrushchev were commissars during World War II - if one of them dies history would be drastically different - no Khrushchev Thaw, lesser or even bigger de-stalinization, no Brezhnev stagnation, rise of Bonapartist Soviet Union. Your TL has great potential and it would be unwise to end this at this point.
Well, you see... In some ways, I follow a deterministic school of thought when regarding history.

Don't get me wrong - chaos theory definitely applies when regarding the names that go across history and change it. Sane with the countries that inhabit it. As in, political history is definitely chaotic and even the death of a few individuals can have a drastic impact on how it develops. The problem is that from my point of view, political history is not a decisive factor in determining the "outcome" of human history.

It's probably because my biggest interest is cultural and economic history, especially literature history. Both of which aren't hugely affected by the names and lines that we draw on a map.

In this case, I would argue that the Soviet-Lithuanian War wouldn't mean that the Soviet Union falls earlier or not at all, because looking at it from an economic (and social, as in, being composed of dozens of nationalities forced into membership) perspective, it's structure wasn't very sustainable from the start.
 
In this case, I would argue that the Soviet-Lithuanian War wouldn't mean that the Soviet Union falls earlier or not at all, because looking at it from an economic (and social, as in, being composed of dozens of nationalities forced into membership) perspective, it's structure wasn't very sustainable from the start.

But you know that with thousands of deaths in Lithuanian and Soviet societies could affect their future that politician with more liberal view of economy could perform reforms that would make Soviet Union survive? Imagine that if you kill let's say Brezhnev then he would not succeed Khrushchev even if ATL coup worked. If Kosygin managed to perform his reforms and make them successful, then Soviet economy would be stronger that OTL leading to economical growth in the country? And then only few states could break from Soviet Union (Baltic states sure, but some Asian states could be more willing in participation in reformed Soviet Union).
 
But you know that with thousands of deaths in Lithuanian and Soviet societies could affect their future that politician with more liberal view of economy could perform reforms that would make Soviet Union survive? Imagine that if you kill let's say Brezhnev then he would not succeed Khrushchev even if ATL coup worked. If Kosygin managed to perform his reforms and make them successful, then Soviet economy would be stronger that OTL leading to economical growth in the country? And then only few states could break from Soviet Union (Baltic states sure, but some Asian states could be more willing in participation in reformed Soviet Union).
Well, you see, tracking down exactly who could die in this scenario before their time becomes tricky, because, well, since we don't have any lists of who exactly were members of the 3rd and 11th Armies at that point OTL, if we wanted to kill off anyone during this war, then we'd have to pretty much make their participation up. It would be easier for Lithuania and determining which of their figures would die, but:

a) Lithuania at this point is no longer important in the grand scheme of things
b) I already did that. Kubilius got butterflied into presidency in 2010, because the Social-Democrats, being the successors of Communists and all, are a minnow party and not at all relevant in Lithuanian politics ITTL. Same with Dalia Grybauskaitė, whose Communist past hurt her enough to lose the 2009 election.

And I like using butterflies as much as the next guy (heck, I've done my fair share in The Silver Knight), but I stand by the opinion that some time has to come to pass before the accumulated small changes can result in something hugely impactful in the timeline.
 
You don't need lists of members of 3rd and 11th Army. Losses in these armies will create enough butterflies to kill somebody else during World War or later.
 
You don't need lists of members of 3rd and 11th Army. Losses in these armies will create enough butterflies to kill somebody else during World War or later.
At some point, eventually, butterflies turn so chaotic that they essentially become author wish making. Right?
 
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