We fight on, we fight to win

James G

Gone Fishin'
I'm waiting patiently for the next update.
I would guess that the Conservatives win the most seats and form a minority government with Ulster Unionist and even DUP support: those two parties won nine and three seats respectively in 1992.
I am under the impression that Major's victory in '92 was down to many people not being registered to vote due to not being on the electoral roll to avoid the council tax, although that hadn't been brought in. I am not sure if such great numbers would still be or not be on the electoral roll in '91.

As a side note, with the new voting registration for OTL's 2015 election there is a similar situation with many people not being registered and maybe the polls being wrong as they were in '92?
 
As a side note, with the new voting registration for OTL's 2015 election there is a similar situation with many people not being registered and maybe the polls being wrong as they were in '92?

well....the polls were defiantly wrong


apologies for everyone the shocking amount of time this thread has gone without an update, just the next one is quite integral to this thread's direction so im determined to get it right. Ive just got the final paragraph or two to do, so within the next couple of days I promise.
 
Part 3: Election Aftermath
“Sorry Peter Kellner I’m going to have to interrupt you, with the last of the Northern Irish seats in, we can now go through the full results:

Conservative – 307 seats
Labour – 293 seats
Liberal Democrats – 26 seats
Nationalist Parties – 12 seats
Ulster Unionists – 13 seats

So the Conservatives the largest party in a hung parliament”.

The Conservatives had won their lowest share of the vote since 1974, and Labour their highest number of votes since 1966. The turnout was the highest since February 1974.

It was soon apparent that any deal to keep Mrs Thatcher in Downing Street would require Liberal Democrat support. Constitutionally the incumbent Prime Minister should have the first attempt at forming a new administration, and that evening a Liberal Democrat negotiation team consisting of David Steel, Alan Beith and Charles Kennedy entered Downing Street. However it soon became apparent that reaching any kind of agreement would be almost impossible as key Liberal Democrat demands, including a commitment to Electoral Reform, devolution, and most importantly a commitment to the Mrs Thatcher’s resignation by the end of the year proved completely unacceptable to the Prime Minister.

Negotiations continued over the weekend, but proved equally fruitless. Meanwhile all of the Nationalist parties explicitly ruled out supporting another Thatcher administration, as did the DUP. The Tories launched a media blitz, with Kenneth Baker and Norman Tebbit telling the BBC and ITN that, as leader of the largest party and winner of the largest number of votes Mrs Thatcher was best placed to take the country forward, and that it would be undemocratic for parliament to elect a government against the people’s wishes.

Mrs Thatcher was adamant that she would remain in office, writing in The Downing Street Years of her intention to put forward a Queens Speech when parliament returned on 25th June, and if necessary fresh elections in the Autumn. However many members of the cabinet, most notably Kenneth Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind were concerned the Prime Minister’s actions were damaging her image, and that she was seen as “squatting” in Downing Street. After all the Conservative’s had lost nearly 70 seats and many saw this as a rejection of the incumbent government.

On 12th June, the Wednesday after the election, news broke that the Labour party had entered negotiations with the Liberal Democrats, with the intention of forming a government. The Prime Minister went on the offensive, arguing that it was “undemocratic for the government to be led by any party other than the largest in the House of Commons”, although constitutional expert Professor Vernon Bogdanor was quick to point out that a Prime Minister simply needed to command the confidence of the commons, and did not need necessarily be the leader of the largest party, pointing to the example of 1924.

By now many cabinet members doubted the Prime Minister’s judgement, particularly her desire to remain in office despite not having a majority in the commons. By now public opinion had begun to shift strongly against her, particularly her decision to “squat” in Downing Street. Through the evening of 14th June one by one she held meetings with her cabinet members to canvass their views, almost all arguing that, although they didn’t want to see her humiliated, they felt she could no longer remain in office. Kenneth Clarke went further and argued that the Prime Minister’s actions were damaging the Conservative Party. The following morning the Downing Street press office issued a statement, announcing the Prime Minister’s intention to resign as soon as an alternative government, and to resign as leader of the Conservative Party as soon as a successor was elected. Reactions were mixed, some were angry, some overjoyed, but most were simply relieved that a constitutional crisis had been avoided.

Meanwhile negotiations between Labour and the Liberal Democrats became more advanced, discussions were no longer about if there should be a deal, but about what the deal should be. Over the weekend the last points were finalised, and finally on the Tuesday – the 18th – Neil Kinnock and Paddy Ashdown held a joint press conference, saying that they had reached a broad agreement to form a new consensus driven government. Within the hour the door to Downing Street opened, and the outgoing Prime Minister made a short statement “We’re leaving Downing Street for the last time now after twelve wonderful years”.


Finally, she was gone.
 
Very interesting stuff Admiral, nice illusions of Brown's last days. A Lib-Lab pact however still doesn't reach the magic number. You'd need the SDLP and SNP or Plaid to form a majority. Or are they playing as a minority coalition?
 
Interesting. So what policies are the Lib-Lab coalition going to be pushing for. I can see devolution and electoral reform quite high on the agenda. Widespread renationalisation probably won't be on the cards just yet, although I suspect a pre-Blair Labour would focus on loosening union restrictions. I suspect a greater emphasis on tax and spend policies in welfare and the economy. What about their stance on Trident?

What effect is this election going to have on the Labour and Lib Dem parties in the long run? Will Labour be able to avoid Blairism, or will the ignominy of having to get into power through a coalition serve as a catalyst for Blair's "modernisation" of the party? Will the unions still have a bloc vote in leadership elections?

And what about the Lib Dems? A large reason why I believe they lost a lot of support after going into coalition with the Tories is that a lot of their left-leaning supporters, particularly students, were expecting them to form a centre-left party with Labour and possibly others, and felt betrayed after they made a deal with the Tories, especially after they went back on tuition fees. I also feel that the party as a whole shifted to the right, (although that might be that I've shifted considerably to the left since then). Will the Lib-Lab coalition be better received by their supporters, and will it lead to a strengthening or weakening of the Lib Dem party overall?

Finally, if electoral reform goes through, how will this reshape British politics?
 
Top