Ways that Canada can balkanize in the 19th century

Much attention has been devoted to understanding how many ways the U.S. could fall apart, but how about Canada? What were the goals of the pre-Confederation Rebellions, did they want to secede in anyway? Were there any provinces that would not want to accept Confederation? Could Louis Riel and the Metis win the Red River Rebellion? Could the Fenians capture and hold on to part of Canadian territory with American support? Did any frontiersmen in Hudson Bay or Columbia want to go their own way? Am I missing any other regions or peoples?
 
The 1837 rebellion in Upper Canada was a broadly pro-American spark, while in Lower Canada it was a substantially larger potential war of independence that got nipped in the bud. The first Métis rebellion was less an attempt to break away from the British sphere and more an effort to get a better position versus the Canadian government, while the second was a despairing last attempt at something. The Fenians were not credible, not outside of something larger like an Anglo-American war.

The current Canadian state is a product of deadlock in the mid-19th century Province of Canada, a single state combining what is now Ontario (once Upper Canada, then Canada West) and Québec (once Lower Canada, then Canada East) in a single territorial jurisdiction with a single parliament. Ethnic and economic differences between the two parts of Canada quickly lead to deadlock by the 1860s, this deadlock becoming so serious that Canadian politicians seized on half-hearted Maritime discussions of political union as a way out. The modern Canadian union created in 1867, a union of provinces, would be a large polity more capable of promoting economic development across British North America that would also allow the two parties to separate. If the Province of Canada somehow works better (unlikely) or if the two provinces are never merged in the first place, Confederation could be postponed.
 
There are any number of ways it could go, either courtesy of American expansionism, the British wishing to carve out more than one Dominion from Canada (better to keep them controlled), or internal strife.
 
I'm trying to determine if any of the component parts of Canada had enough of an identity to want to split off as the CSA/Deseret/Texas/California Balkanized U.S. cliches go, but I suppose Upper and Lower Canada was as far as they went. They were already as divided as they could be, and they were already living on their own, until confederation, so the analogue doesn't really hold. So if Canada would split it would just be Upper, Lower, and Maritimes.
 
Your best bet is to prevent Confederation. Have Upper and Lower Canada split, and have the Maritimes never join.

Eventually you have Newfoundland, 1-3 Maritime dominions, Upper and Lower Canada, Rupertsland, and BC. That's anywhere up to 8 Dominions...
 
If you kill John A. Macdonald you can effectively postpone Confederation definitely. This in turn pretty much ensures Canada as we know it does not form.

Breaking Canada off by force is IMO not a viable option until the 1890s, and as for the various different groups in both the Maritimes and the Province of Canada itself from 1812-1867, none had either a vested interest in outright independence or any considerable pent up expression of ill-will towards Great Britain herself which would allow for anything resembling a popular war of independence.
 
I'm just trying to see what the maximum Balkanized North America could look like, but I suppose Canada and Mexico don't splinter quite as easily as the U.S. does.
 
I'm just trying to see what the maximum Balkanized North America could look like, but I suppose Canada and Mexico don't splinter quite as easily as the U.S. does.

Well, if you splinter America early enough, there is less incentive for Canada to confederate. Without the American behemoth scaring the bejesus out of Canada post civil war, there is less drive for British colonies to hang together or hang seperately for America to pick at.

My guess, for plausible dominions in a balkanized America scenario, is Maritimes, British Columbia, and Canada (the Canada buying Rupert's Land once it goes up for sale).
 
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