Waterloo(ish) WI

Now this is not my strong point in history, to say the least, but I just read a short article on the battles of Quatre Bras and Ligny(Waterloo Campaign). The French I Corps was coming up to the battles and moved to attack the Prussians' right at Lingny when Ney, who was unaware of Napoleon's orders to I Corps, ordered I Corps to turn around and move to Quartre Bras, and did not reach that battle either.

So WI Ney knew Napoleon's orders and the I Corps did attack the Prussian right. How does the rest of Ligny go? Can Napoleon turn it into a decisive victory and be able to bring his entire army against Wellington at Waterloo(or wherever else the butterflies put Wellington)?
 
Now this is not my strong point in history, to say the least, but I just read a short article on the battles of Quatre Bras and Ligny(Waterloo Campaign). The French I Corps was coming up to the battles and moved to attack the Prussians' right at Lingny when Ney, who was unaware of Napoleon's orders to I Corps, ordered I Corps to turn around and move to Quartre Bras, and did not reach that battle either.

So WI Ney knew Napoleon's orders and the I Corps did attack the Prussian right. How does the rest of Ligny go? Can Napoleon turn it into a decisive victory and be able to bring his entire army against Wellington at Waterloo(or wherever else the butterflies put Wellington)?


Well, as Wellington himself acknowledged at the time, Waterloo was a near thing, and any number of changes could allow Napoleon to win.

Most likely consequence - an Austro-Russian army beats Napoleon somewhere near Frankfurt-on-Main, and the final peace is decided more by them and less by GB and Prussia..
 
Napoleon could defeat Wellington, perhaps even Blucher, but would have been in the situation of King Pyrrhus: every victory is a defeat in disguise and there's no way to translate battlefield victory into ultimate victory. Tsar Alexander I is extremely happy about this, the rest of Europe perhaps not so much.
 
By the time that Waterloo happened Napoleon had too many enemies to be able to survive for long as the ruler of France, even with a victory. There were plenty of Russian and Austrian troops ready to continue the fight. A victory at Waterloo would have bought Napoleon six more months in power at best.
 
So basically, he would eventually have been beaten by the Russians and Austrians? Any possibly of any coalition members dropping out if Napoleon wins at Waterloo and maybe some other battles, fearing another repeat of the long and bloody wars of the last decade and a half?
 
So basically, he would eventually have been beaten by the Russians and Austrians? Any possibly of any coalition members dropping out if Napoleon wins at Waterloo and maybe some other battles, fearing another repeat of the long and bloody wars of the last decade and a half?
Its not too hard to imagine a French victory at Waterloo as you describe, bu I'm pretty sure Britain would not drop out, and I'm skeptical as to whether Prussia would. Austria and Russia would certainly not drop out, and their armies are on their way to beat Napoleon. I don't think theres even a chance for a negotiated settlement, as there is no way the Coalition are going to let someone that dangerous rule a state as important as France. In short, Napoleon has to go. And he does not have the resources to fight off the Coalition.
 
Its not too hard to imagine a French victory at Waterloo as you describe, bu I'm pretty sure Britain would not drop out, and I'm skeptical as to whether Prussia would. Austria and Russia would certainly not drop out, and their armies are on their way to beat Napoleon. I don't think theres even a chance for a negotiated settlement, as there is no way the Coalition are going to let someone that dangerous rule a state as important as France. In short, Napoleon has to go. And he does not have the resources to fight off the Coalition.

I just checked the numbers of troops the coalition mobilized and, well to put it blunt, I've decided good ol' Nappy was screwed. Even without the British and Prussian army, there were close to a million troops ready, versus France barely having 200,000 :eek: I can't imagine any general that could be successful in that situation.

Although, that would make for a pretty epic battle or two
 
I just checked the numbers of troops the coalition mobilized and, well to put it blunt, I've decided good ol' Nappy was screwed. Even without the British and Prussian army, there were close to a million troops ready, versus France barely having 200,000 :eek: I can't imagine any general that could be successful in that situation.

Although, that would make for a pretty epic battle or two
Napoleon had faced similar odds twice as favorable at Leipzig (with the Coalition having a bit under half a million men). He did well, considering his situation in the battle, but was ultimately defeated. The allies would be bloodied, and the Brits would not get as big an ego-boost as OTL, but Nappy was going down.
 
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