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What if George Washington had died on the way home from the Constitutional Convention?

While hurrying home from the Constitutional Convention, probably out of a wholeheared wish to be home after missing most of harvesttime, George Washington and his traveling companion (fellow delegate John Blair) refused to wait for heavy rains. Upon coming to an abandoned bridge at Head of Elk, Maryland, he and Blair took the precaution of getting out of the coach before urging the horses across - which was good, because the bridge broke and one horse fell fifteen feet to the river. Had the other horse followed, Washington's carriage would have probably been destroyed.

(Source: page 39 of Pauline Maier's phenomenal book Ratification: The People Debate the Constitution. I was just reading it; it's great.)

So... what if Washington and Blair hadn't gotten out of the carriage, both horses had gone in, and Washington was killed? (I think he would have died; he'd recently gotten over severe rheumatism, and he was invalided twice as President.) The Constitution had just been proposed... but his death would have dramatic effects on the ratification controversy. Some Federalists would doubtlessly have argued that the Constitution should be ratified in Washington's memory, but would that have been as strong as his live presence and the near-certainty of his being the first President?

For one specific example, James Madison - one of the main speakers for ratification in the Virginia convention - hated the idea of campaigning for office. He was planning to stay at Congress in New York until Washington personally wrote him urging him to return home and run for the convention. Madison did; his speeches played a major role in the narrowly-fought ratification battle. Without Washington, Madison would not be in the Virginia convention, which might well leave Virginia outside the Union.

So... what would happen? How many states ratify, who would be the first President (if the needed nine do in fact ratify), and how would the nation develop?
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