When I first studied a very shrunk down and simplified version of this pivotal moment in our history in school, my first thought, as I imagine that of many others, was: "Ah, if only the Archduke had not been killed that summer in Sarajevo..."
A few years later, having grown more and more passionate and informed about this pivotal month in world history, I find myself thinking the same "what if" over, but with a different, gloomier answer in mind.
Let's look at central Europe in 1914.
Germany is elbowing its way among the Great Powers, and the existing Powers don't like that, at all.
Since sacking Bismark, the Kaiser and the German government in general are bent on aggressive foreign policy aimed at ensuring Germany's "place in the sun", all the while appearing to be tragically blind to the negative effects such policy has on their international relations.
While in western Europe books circulate proposing that war is obsolete, because it would only bring ruin to all involved, in Germany bestsellers include works on how war is natural, inevitable and a right of the German people.
France is wounded and angry after her defeat in the Franco-Prussian war, and is very much aware of how the Reich is treating its new territory of Alsace-Lorraine.
The three great empires are seething with unrest: Russia has been dealing with insurrection since after the Russo-Japanese war, her third-to-last Tsar has been assassinated by rebels, and the current Emperor is a weak, indecisive, not exactly sharp-witted ruler. The Ottomans have been on their way down for centuries and are also dealing with unrest. Austria-Hungary and the million different nations it attempts to rule over are under an old ruler, and the Empire is also rife with discontent.
Furthermore, the prevailing belief among the general staff of the great powers is that he who wins the battle is he who "gets there firstest with the mostest", meaning when crises escalate, everyone would rather flick the mobilisation switch sooner than later.
It seems to me a situation in which everyone has their thumb on the 1914 equivalent of the "Nuclear holocaust" button, except for maybe Great Britain, having one finger on that and the other on the "Not our business, we're out" button.
With all of that being said, I want your opinions: in a hypothetical timeline that only splits from ours on sunday morning, 28th june 1914, when the Archduke of Austria survives his trip so Sarajevo, does a Great War, meaning a global armed conflict, still occurr? If so, why, how, where and when? What's the spark that triggers the bomb? What are the sides?
I have a couple scenarios in mind, but would like to hear from the rest of the "what if" community.
The outcome of such a war is beyond the scope of this post, for now.