Was there any way that Nazi Germany could have won

a different Sino-Japanese war?

first and most importantly for gremany to win they must keep the usa out or the war altogether. If they could have somehow convinced japan to invade the ussr across mancheria instead of attacking the usa.

The Soviets clobbered the Japanese in 1938 and 1939, and they clobbered them in 1945. They would have clobbered them in 1941.

This could conceivably have allowed earlier Communist gains in the war, perhaps even the loss of Manchukuo and northern China to Mao's forces.
 
The conquest of the UK was not so much vital for a German suppremacy, but the destruction of the USSR/Russia was. Germany was and still is a continental power and the USSR/Russia is the only compedator in this. The UK was and still is basically, an Imperial seaborne Empire, which in ehrself is not so much a continental power, but can use her naval power to force other lesser powers up her will, if she wanted to do so. As germany certainly was not a lesser power in the 40's, this did not play that way.

So if the PODs allow Germany to beat the Soviets you have a scenerio where likely the Allies can clear Africa and some of the Mediterranenan Islands but can't invade Europe due to German ground strength (and incremental increases in air power).

A Japan first scenerio is likely then, and once that is over superfortresses rain conventional bombs, once the mustang comes online the Germans can't stop that. The allies figure out how to destroy oil centers, refineries and such places that hurt the German air effort.

But likely this isn't enough as there are still lots places to disperse industry, lots of slave labor available. The Allies will get the ABomb but worry the Germans will relatiate with Sarin loaded in V-Weapons which are just across the channel.

A cruel world indeed. Hopefully Hiler just dies late 45 and the German regime collapses of its own incompetence.
 
They've got Ploesti, and with a whole lot of luck and a touch of divine intervention, they might be able to take the Caucasus fields.

Ploesti produce 6 million barrels of oil at most. Germany IIRC prewar consumption and imports netted 30 million a year. They hoped that additional fuel could become available from synthetic fuel factories, eventually covering much of the military needs. Needless to say those capacities never came close to this and the entire process was a net economic loss, made possible only due to heavy state subsidies.

Also, IIRC, Soviet oil wells were so well sabotages that they would be unusable for months. If not a full year. Even when production would be restored Germans would have trouble transporting the oil to Germany for processing and distribution.
 
IIRC the Germans weren't able to adapt the V-2s for nerve gas. Even if they'd done this before the Bomb Britain would have likely resorted to Operation Vegetarian.
 
So if the PODs allow Germany to beat the Soviets you have a scenerio where likely the Allies can clear Africa and some of the Mediterranenan Islands but can't invade Europe due to German ground strength (and incremental increases in air power).

A Japan first scenerio is likely then, and once that is over superfortresses rain conventional bombs, once the mustang comes online the Germans can't stop that. The allies figure out how to destroy oil centers, refineries and such places that hurt the German air effort.

But likely this isn't enough as there are still lots places to disperse industry, lots of slave labor available. The Allies will get the ABomb but worry the Germans will relatiate with Sarin loaded in V-Weapons which are just across the channel.

A cruel world indeed. Hopefully Hiler just dies late 45 and the German regime collapses of its own incompetence.


You seem to have a bit of overoptimism about the P-51, which essentailly was only so good, due to the lack of German experienced pilots, as these already had died, mostly in Russia. With no setback in the USSR, the german industry would have had the time to build up forces, more clapable, with the then still in existence pilots of veteran level. No P-51 can change that, I am afraid to say.

First of all, german technology was more advanged than the US one in most modern weapon developments. (Rockets, cruisemisslies, guided weapons, jets, submarines, etc.) You cannot ignore that. B-29's are easy pickings as they were large and not the most manouvreble types of aircraft. A fast jet, especially fitted with AAM's of the early German generation, becomming online around 1945, would empty the skies over Germany of daylight bombers. Ground to Air missles were also already reaching operational status in late 1944, so could have made bombingmissions a nightmare. (No slowing down of this development expected, with the USSR out of the way.) German Air Defenses were the most advanced of their day, with airsearch radar networks, warning the airdefence fighterbases as soon as the bombers left the UK soil. The fact that it did not work well in the OTL was the almost complete absense of the Luftwaffe in West Europe in the later waryears, due to their operations in the East. Tehre simply were too few aircraft left to intecept the bombers.

Nuclear weapons too have no change to change the landwar, as you simply have not enough of them to destroy an army on an entire continent. It will only result in unwanted retaliation, which the UK was not wanting and the USA unwilling to be reponsible for. (It might have caused the UK to force the USA not to use the nuclear weapon in the first place, as the price would be paid by the UK alone. The USA were not so stupid, to risk loosing their only real ally.)

A sort of stalemate wa more likely, as the Germans could not realy threaten the UK and USA, while the same thing was true the opposit way. A new world order would emerge most likely, with the USA and USSR pair now changed into a USA vs Germany as remainigng superpowers.)
 
You seem to have a bit of overoptimism about the P-51, which essentailly was only so good, due to the lack of German experienced pilots, as these already had died, mostly in Russia. With no setback in the USSR, the german industry would have had the time to build up forces, more clapable, with the then still in existence pilots of veteran level. No P-51 can change that, I am afraid to say.

Wasn't oil shortage a significant factor, limiting the flying time for the German pilots which resulted in low proficiency of raw recruits?
 
Wasn't oil shortage a significant factor, limiting the flying time for the German pilots which resulted in low proficiency of raw recruits?

Oil was comming mainly from Rumanian flieds, and with the USSR out, it could also come from Russian occupied fields as well. Nothing could be done to stop it completely in the OTL, but it did somewhat affect things a bit. Note that the destruction of the infrastructure was the primary reason of the local shortages, not the control over the oil fields. With this destruction not possible, due to a much stronger Luftwaffe over Germany, oil was not a problem anymore. (not even speaking of synthetic fuels, the Germans excelled in by the way.)
 
Oil was comming mainly from Rumanian flieds, and with the USSR out, it could also come from Russian occupied fields as well. Nothing could be done to stop it completely in the OTL, but it did somewhat affect things a bit. Note that the destruction of the infrastructure was the primary reason of the local shortages, not the control over the oil fields. With this destruction not possible, due to a much stronger Luftwaffe over Germany, oil was not a problem anymore. (not even speaking of synthetic fuels, the Germans excelled in by the way.)

So they'll have to rely on a source of oil that has vulnerable wells and must be transported over a vast area fill with partisans?
 
once the Germans took on both the USSR and USA, victory became impossible. So the real question is if the Germans (assuming they win against France as in OTL) can defeat the UK alone...
 

mowque

Banned
once the Germans took on both the USSR and USA, victory became impossible. So the real question is if the Germans (assuming they win against France as in OTL) can defeat the UK alone...

But can they ever really just keep it one on one like that?
 
It depends who's in charge, a few of them weren't so big on the lebensraum and murdering people.

also it would have been very useful to come in as "liberators". also and this is vile but it is the nazis we are talking about instead of the final solution, they should have only interned female and old male jews while consripting the males of military age to throw at the russians, with the implicit threat that if the jewish forces turn on the germans the women and nonmilitary age men would be murdered.

But that just ain't the Nazi Germany that we all know and hate :p

first and most importantly for gremany to win they must keep the usa out or the war altogether. If they could have somehow convinced japan to invade the ussr across mancheria instead of attacking the usa.

Keep the US out is easier said than done, even without the USA being in the Pacific, there's only so much they will tolerate from Nazi Germany in terms of sinking ships and cargo. The USA was in no way interested in letting Nazi Germany dominate Europe either and even the most pacifist President could see the writing on the wall. Although I agree, keeping the USA out would do wonders for Germany, because instead of taking on 2/3 of the world, they are now just taking on the about 1/2 of it ;)

Also, Japan wasn't interested in invading the USSR from behind. They had been bashed left-right and centre by the Soviets in the past. The Japanese lacked the equipment to take on the USSR which is part of the reason why they got smanged when the Reds rolled through Manchuria in 45. There is also sweet fuck all in the Far-East for Japan to take that would really hurt the Soviets (except maybe Vladivostok), which would be a mission in itself. What was Japanese experience with Urban warfare like?
 
Last edited:
But can they ever really just keep it one on one like that?

With the leadership more intelligent in the attack on the USSR, I would say yes, as the germans came close to knock out the USSR permanently, with a poor leadership. One can imagine what a more intelligent leadership could have done.

With the USSR out as a major player, things would see more positive, as the likelyhood of serious opposition could be dealth with the known German "perfection", in this case a sad one: Genocide. In the thinking of the National Socialist racist policy, Slavish people were inferior to Germanic people, so these would be treated more or less as in the OTL, but possibly on a greater scale. (Even with a Wehrmacht in charge, the decade of National Socialism already had politically formed the new society of races and their ranking.)

With only an oversea power, with no landborders, or capabilities to lift landforces fast enough to Europe and keep them there, due to lack of a fixed bridghead on that continent, remaining as superpower in the world, germany could have secured its possessions and grip on Europe, with little or no difficulties. Unless making terrible mistakes, it could survive.
 
Top