Was there any way Maximillian could keep the throne of Mexico ?

Max will never get the nationalists on side. He’s a foreigner imposed on Mexico by foreigners to act as a puppet for a foreign power. The war is referred to as Mexico’s second war of independence for a reason. He might be able to win the war but I can’t see how he can ‘win the peace’. He just doesn’t have enough support. He’s going to face continuous rebellion in guerrilla form, opposition to his policies from both conservatives and liberals, and the country will still face the extreme socio-economic problems as OTL. I’m certain there’d be another major civil war within a decade and he’ll be deposed when French troops inevitably leave.

I'm of the conclusion that the "Second War of Independece" moniker is to a great extent a case of the victors writing the history; attempting to dramatically downplay the domestic sympathy for the Conservative cause in the War of Reform (Which we're really talking about an extentison of) by casting them as forgein catspaws only, but there's very real disagreements on that front so I could very well be wrong. However, I was trying to imply not that Max would win the nationalists; merely that it's very possible Juarez would lose them which would splinter the opposition. Which is my point; Max may not be able to "win" the peace any more than previous governments did in the sense of reaching a lasting solution, but that's business as usual in 19th century Latin America. He is though capable of "not losing" long enough to get a notable degree of domestic support; for example, from native groups who's autonomy, protections, and land usage rights he restored.
 
I'm of the conclusion that the "Second War of Independece" moniker is to a great extent a case of the victors writing the history; attempting to dramatically downplay the domestic sympathy for the Conservative cause in the War of Reform (Which we're really talking about an extentison of) by casting them as forgein catspaws only, but there's very real disagreements on that front so I could very well be wrong. However, I was trying to imply not that Max would win the nationalists; merely that it's very possible Juarez would lose them which would splinter the opposition. Which is my point; Max may not be able to "win" the peace any more than previous governments did in the sense of reaching a lasting solution, but that's business as usual in 19th century Latin America. He is though capable of "not losing" long enough to get a notable degree of domestic support; for example, from native groups who's autonomy, protections, and land usage rights he restored.
IOTL he had the support of native groups and they were perhaps the only people who supported both him & his ideas. In the context of the war the conservatives were willing to put up with his more moderate liberalism but it was already making them uncomfortable. If he wins the war I don’t think he’d be able to carry out his ideas. IOTL Díaz was able to maintain a fairly stable regime following the war and ITTL that isn’t going to happen.
 
IOTL he had the support of native groups and they were perhaps the only people who supported both him & his ideas. In the context of the war the conservatives were willing to put up with his more moderate liberalism but it was already making them uncomfortable. If he wins the war I don’t think he’d be able to carry out his ideas. IOTL Díaz was able to maintain a fairly stable regime following the war and ITTL that isn’t going to happen.

The more reactionary elements will certainly grumble, but it's hardly as though they have a better alternative than to hang with him or hang separately. It's important to remember that Emperor Max was the ultimate compromise candidate; and like any good and effective compromise is successful at making the broadest range of groups the least unhappy, rather than winning the undying love of any particular one. Indeed, his relative lack of popularity\stability is better for them than a strong monarch; he'll be obliged to keep power more decenteralized (towards them) in order to keep some degree of order and prosperity, and he won't be around forever. Far better to use his weakness to build the Imperial system's foundation to their advantage while grooming Agustin into a proper Conservative heir.

And I won't contest Diaz was a highly effective leader; certainly better for Mexico than Max or his regeime could ever be. The question though isent if he ought to retain his throne, but if he could (The Empire thriving vs. surviving). The former, which helped make Mexico into the above average category among it's Latin American contemporaries, is highly unlikely, but the later certainly is even if it comes at the nation's expense
 
The more reactionary elements will certainly grumble, but it's hardly as though they have a better alternative than to hang with him or hang separately. It's important to remember that Emperor Max was the ultimate compromise candidate; and like any good and effective compromise is successful at making the broadest range of groups the least unhappy, rather than winning the undying love of any particular one. Indeed, his relative lack of popularity\stability is better for them than a strong monarch; he'll be obliged to keep power more decenteralized (towards them) in order to keep some degree of order and prosperity, and he won't be around forever. Far better to use his weakness to build the Imperial system's foundation to their advantage while grooming Agustin into a proper Conservative heir.

And I won't contest Diaz was a highly effective leader; certainly better for Mexico than Max or his regeime could ever be. The question though isent if he ought to retain his throne, but if he could (The Empire thriving vs. surviving). The former, which helped make Mexico into the above average category among it's Latin American contemporaries, is highly unlikely, but the later certainly is even if it comes at the nation's expense
I just don’t buy the idea that Max would actually be a compromise candidate in peacetime. He wouldn’t be able to balance all the different factions because it’s unlikely he’d have any political freedom. He’d be a puppet of the French and of the conservative elites. I don’t think the ultra-conservatives would allow him the freedom of movement to reconcile Mexico. That’s why I think we’d see a continuation of the civil war in the mountains and a return to serious civil war when the French eventually leave.

Diaz’s crowning achievement is his survival. After so many years of chaos he managed to maintain a stable regime. Max would be bad for Mexico because he wouldn’t bring peace and he’s unlikely to survive the continuing chaos.
 
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RousseauX

Donor
His big problem: He was the liberal-enlightened-constitutionalist kind of ruler, but the Mexican monarchists preferred some real absolutist, and the Mexican liberals preferred a republic.
he could have just being pragmatic and ruled as a conservative monarch
 
I will say this: Maximilian staying in power is going to help stabilize Mexico, better then Porfirio Díaz, but you also need him to have an heir. IIRC, he did a rather elaborate charade towards his brother Karl Ludwig for one of his children to be heir to Mexico, and while he adopted the Iturbide heirs, he didn't intend to be a placeholder for them (he saw the Iturbides as not of royal blood). Either Carlotta (Maximilian's wife) is able to have children, or Max needs someone who can succeed him who is close in blood.
 
IMO, Maximillian need a stable france with french troop during at least one or two decade, to stabilize his rule, the presence of French troops reduces the risk of revolt or betrayl of the Mexican army, also Mexico would have acces to french market and capital helping of the rise of the burgher classe, French support can also push Maximillian to assert himself because he will be less dependant on the conservative, IMO, he could built a political base (local native, burgher, catholic, millitary (if they are formed by the french) , ...) after all depends on his reign and his successor but he will have to conquer little by little his power, because in the begining he would be a figurehead.
 
IMO, Maximillian need a stable france with french troop during at least one or two decade, to stabilize his rule, the presence of French troops reduces the risk of revolt or betrayl of the Mexican army, also Mexico would have acces to french market and capital helping of the rise of the burgher classe, French support can also push Maximillian to assert himself because he will be less dependant on the conservative, IMO, he could built a political base (local native, burgher, catholic, millitary (if they are formed by the french) , ...) after all depends on his reign and his successor but he will have to conquer little by little his power, because in the begining he would be a figurehead.

Whoever comes after Maximilian I think should break with France. Why? As to help legitimatize his rule and to show he is not a puppet of Paris and not dependent of France to support them.
 
Whoever comes after Maximilian I think should break with France. Why? As to help legitimatize his rule and to show he is not a puppet of Paris and not dependent of France to support them.

The problem is that the french presence is a curse and a blessing, in my opinion the best outcome would be a change of status, France will focused on another theater and would want to bring back their troops and in same time if Mexico is sucesfull and want to reaffirmate as an independant power they would want to regnociate their contract with France, so IMO they would reach a kind of agreement more balanced to maintain friendly relations useful for both of them. (because this relation would be useful for both of them)
 
I just don’t buy the idea that Max would actually be a compromise candidate in peacetime. He wouldn’t be able to balance all the different factions because it’s unlikely he’d have any political freedom. He’d be a puppet of the French and of the conservative elites. I don’t think the ultra-conservatives would allow him the freedom of movement to reconcile Mexico. That’s why I think we’d see a continuation of the civil war in the mountains and a return to serious civil war when the French eventually leave.

Diaz’s crowning achievement is his survival. After so many years of chaos he managed to maintain a stable regime. Max would be bad for Mexico because he wouldn’t bring peace and he’s unlikely to survive the continuing chaos.

My apologies; I could have been clearer with my language. He was a compromise candidate among the various Conservative forces, not the nation as a whole per say. And I'm not contesting that civil violence would flare up again at some point; that's par for the course in 19th century Latin America, and as you noted it was Diaz's ability to escape that norm that made him so prestigious. But with a combined Conservative front who will accept .if not exactly love, him the throne could stand so long as the opposition remained fractured, which I'd argue is a distinct possibility.
 
So the only hope for Max is:

Become a Conservative

Have Lincoln as President

Kill Benito Juarez early on

Hope that the French stay longer

Is that right ?
 
Become a Conservative

Have Lincoln as President

Kill Benito Juarez early on

Hope that the French stay longer

He's not obliged to became conservative but he would need to govern with them at least in the begining.

Lincoln or a president able to accept Maximillian (supported by the french) as Emperor.


After you could have another scenario to kept Maximillian in power but this one is the most likely.
 
So the only hope for Max is

Kill Benito Juarez early on

This one is orders of magnitude more important than all the others. The conservatives will back him because they don't really have a choice (if they throw Max out they just doom themselves). Whoever is in charge in America doesn't matter, they will back republican opposition (which is why it's imperative to remove that early on by removing Juarez) and he doesn't need the French if the republican opposition is splintered resulting from the death of Juarez.
 
Native as in "Native Americans"?
Yeah they made up a major support base for Max. During the colonial period lots of indigenous communities were given land grants by various Spanish Monarchs that were slowly eroded (often illegally) by surrounding landowners. It’s a very similar scenario to the enclosure of the commons from Europe. Max promised to restore historic legal boundaries and so won almost fanatic support from many native communities. In the long run though this is just another cause for tension between Max and the Conservatives post-war. I don’t think they’d let him do what he promised.
 
IIRC it was his youngest brother Ludwig Viktor. That would have been fun...

Max was hoping that he could get his brother wed to one of D. Pedro II of Brasil's daughters (and then have them/their kids as successors). However, Brasil wouldn't agree to a Habsburg archduke (who is also heir to ANOTHER throne) wedding the Princess Imperial any more than they were willing to consider her marrying a Portuguese infante. It ran the risk of the empire's centre of gravity shifting from Rio to Mexico City/Lisbon/wherever.

Of course, he could opt for Leopoldina instead, but given Isabel's struggle to produce an heir OTL, I'd guess that a prospective match is going to be awkward. The Brasilians won't want to end up in an accidental PU with the Mexicans anymore than the Mexicans would like the prospect of a PU with Brasil.

Unless, you can have Max's bastard by Concepçion Sedano acknowledged as heir (maybe married to an Iturbide girl (Augustin II born a girl maybe, or Augustin has a younger sister, but he himself dies in infancy?)
 
Diaz’s crowning achievement is his survival. After so many years of chaos he managed to maintain a stable regime. Max would be bad for Mexico because he wouldn’t bring peace and he’s unlikely to survive the continuing chaos.

Agreed, but calling his regime "stable" is a bit of a stretch. It really wasn't until after WWII that Mexico achieved any sort of stability and it really only lasted until the drug lords gained power...
 
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