Would it be possible to defeat the Republicans before the Civil War ended ? Even then, could he remain in throne after the US turned their attention to Mexico ?
Was there any way Maximillian could keep the throne of Mexico ?
- Thread starter Kaiser of Brazil
- Start date
IMO, if Juarez ids captured or killed early, the resistence mouvment will implode, and Maximillian will recevie more support, and if succeeds in stabilizing his reign before the end of the American Civil War, the USA, could decide to not intervene in exchange of some concession like a perpetual neutrality, and relations between the two powers can improve over time.
Max Sinister
Banned
His big problem: He was the liberal-enlightened-constitutionalist kind of ruler, but the Mexican monarchists preferred some real absolutist, and the Mexican liberals preferred a republic.
Im wonder if the US would accept a French puppet to their south though even if they were still recovering from the Civil War. Its likely that even if Juarez was beaten the US would fund the inevitable revolutions that would continue to occur, and French support would be limited due to logistics and the vast recourses needed to maintain Mexico against American aggression.
RightHoJeeves
Banned
Not really, no. The US didn't even need to invade Mexico after the Civil War, they could just diplomatically pressure the French to abandon Maximilian while "losing" arms depots that were set up next to the border crossings at El Paso.
But if the US really wanted to it could easily seize the cities of northern Mexico which would be an effective demonstration of their desire to see European presence removed.
But if the US really wanted to it could easily seize the cities of northern Mexico which would be an effective demonstration of their desire to see European presence removed.
Like always it usually boils down to 1/3 for, 1/3 against, 1/3 don’t care.
So the key is to win enough battles that the 1/3 that don’t care slowly swing to support the new regime.
I'm not sure USA, just fighted during few year a really nasty war, and the south was only pacified recently, i'm not sure that they would want to fight a new war just after especially if Mexican are backed by one great power, maybe two (UK would want to avoid that USA became too strong.
IMO if Lincoln survive i would see reached a gentleman agreement with Maximillian, Lincoln was francophile and would want to avoid a new war and to focus on the reconsturction, maybe if Juarez died early and the war goes well for Maximillan, the french could support the union during the civil war to show their good will, if Lincoln is still assassinated as OTl and Grant is elected it would be over, American will goes in war against Maximillian.
IMO if Lincoln survive i would see reached a gentleman agreement with Maximillian, Lincoln was francophile and would want to avoid a new war and to focus on the reconsturction, maybe if Juarez died early and the war goes well for Maximillan, the french could support the union during the civil war to show their good will, if Lincoln is still assassinated as OTl and Grant is elected it would be over, American will goes in war against Maximillian.
Juarez was the lynchpin to the whole opposition, if he gets captured or dies the whole thing likely falls apart (this almost happened multiple times OTL).
That means that the Americans don't really have a horse to back so they'd have to invade, which is something they weren't all that keen on doing. So probably some sort of gentleman's agreement is reached and a "live and let live" approach gets taken.
After that, it's tough to say. But I think he'd throw himself off the French yoke after the Franco-Prussian War because France was guting the economy.
That means that the Americans don't really have a horse to back so they'd have to invade, which is something they weren't all that keen on doing. So probably some sort of gentleman's agreement is reached and a "live and let live" approach gets taken.
After that, it's tough to say. But I think he'd throw himself off the French yoke after the Franco-Prussian War because France was guting the economy.
Even if Maximilian wins eventually he is going to suffer some serious problems. He might be able to get through them but likely México is plunged into another civil war.
The two basic problems are
1) Maximilian saw himself as a liberal monarch but his support base was the extreme conservatives. The liberals (and many moderate conservatives) opposed him because he was a foreign monarch imposed upon them. As soon as the war ends he’s going to have to accommodate the extreme conservatives or lose all support completely.
2) The other problem is that he’s a French puppet just south of the American border. He only survived so long IOTL because he was being propped up by tens of thousands of French troops and the US is in civil war. When the political situation in the US changes it’s unlikely they’ll be willing to put up with a French puppet to the south. Perhaps more dangerously for Maximilian as soon as the political situation in France changes the troops leave and he’s hung out to dry.
The two basic problems are
1) Maximilian saw himself as a liberal monarch but his support base was the extreme conservatives. The liberals (and many moderate conservatives) opposed him because he was a foreign monarch imposed upon them. As soon as the war ends he’s going to have to accommodate the extreme conservatives or lose all support completely.
2) The other problem is that he’s a French puppet just south of the American border. He only survived so long IOTL because he was being propped up by tens of thousands of French troops and the US is in civil war. When the political situation in the US changes it’s unlikely they’ll be willing to put up with a French puppet to the south. Perhaps more dangerously for Maximilian as soon as the political situation in France changes the troops leave and he’s hung out to dry.
unprincipled peter
Donor
As stated, Max's biggest problems are internal. It's a tough row to hoe with two diametrically opposed parties, and Max being forced to join the one backed by France, but which he isn't wholeheartedly in sync with. Mexico is still broke, though, and France is going to try bleeding them dry. He won't have the funds, or the ability (thanks to having his hands tied by the conservatives) to effect the changes necessary to bring about prosperity. France isn't going to give him a long enough grace period to solidify his rule and are going to tire of the adventure.
I doubt, though, that the US is going to jump right into a foreign war so soon after the devastating civil war. They might sympathize with the republicans, but this is an era prior to the US effecting regime change around the globe. I don't expect wholesale clandestine (or not so clandestine) support.
I doubt, though, that the US is going to jump right into a foreign war so soon after the devastating civil war. They might sympathize with the republicans, but this is an era prior to the US effecting regime change around the globe. I don't expect wholesale clandestine (or not so clandestine) support.
That's why removing Juarez is so important, without him there really aren't any republicans to back.
1. Civil War ends earlier, and Juarez dies
2. US invades in sloppy fashion after regarding the French as violating the Monroe Doctrine, after having gotten cocky; Mexicans heavily defeat early American intrusions
3. the US, unable to do Reconstruction and properly fight Mexico at the same time, signs a white peace
4. the Mexicans credit Emperor Max for seemingly holding off America
profit
2. US invades in sloppy fashion after regarding the French as violating the Monroe Doctrine, after having gotten cocky; Mexicans heavily defeat early American intrusions
3. the US, unable to do Reconstruction and properly fight Mexico at the same time, signs a white peace
4. the Mexicans credit Emperor Max for seemingly holding off America
profit
Max Sinister
Banned
Break free how? Getting rid of the emperor? Or France? That way they'd lose their only ally.
If the Americans haven't ousted Max by 1871 they probably don't care he's in power so the alliance with France is pretty well moot. There needs to be a situation in place where the Americans don't see anyone to back against Max so don't bother intervening against his rule.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Max relied heavily on French support, and French support will dry up at some point. And I Think people are right that US would just as OTL back the opposition but not get directly involved.
Have the war end early in 1863 or 1864 (there are a few divergences in Grants campaign IIRC) and then a pro outhern Johnson decide to intervene a la the Filibusters.
The big problem is Grant. Hes going to become President unless he dies, and its very hard to see the US under Grant not curbstomping Maximilian if it came to war between them. Id add to this that just removing him doesn't solve the problem, as the war means the US now ha a lot of battle hardened soldiers and capable commanders....
US intervention, even invasion, is exceedingly likely and its hard to see Max being able to win that fight. A brief victory by the Mexican emperor would just mean that the US doubles down for national pride if nothing else, and a good foreign war is certainly one way to reunite the country....
Frankly I think you'd need to have the CSA win or at least survive longer somehow, which in turn basically means dragging the British in since they were running on fumes OTL.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
You could have the McCain-Ocampo Treaty (Or, more usefully, a more pro-American version of it) get through the US Senate and have Emperor Max reject it while utilizing it as propaganda to paint Juarez as a Yanqui toady. If you can egg the man into publicly adopting an Anti-American stance in order to fight for the loyalty of the nationalist intellectuals and domestic merchant classes, it could become politically unpalitable for Washington to support him. Particularly if Juarez or bandits claiming his cause as cover pulls any "propaganda raids" into California during the ACW
You have a very clear point though: by default Max is on charge if there's no challanger. The ball is in those insisting on change's court to present an alternative acceptable to all other parties forgein and domestic... and I don't think the Liberal revolutionaries have a spare
"Break Free" from what? Security, stability, and economic/trade patronage? Because debt forgiveness isen't on the table.
Max will never get the nationalists on side. He’s a foreigner imposed on Mexico by foreigners to act as a puppet for a foreign power. The war is referred to as Mexico’s second war of independence for a reason. He might be able to win the war but I can’t see how he can ‘win the peace’. He just doesn’t have enough support. He’s going to face continuous rebellion in guerrilla form, opposition to his policies from both conservatives and liberals, and the country will still face the extreme socio-economic problems as OTL. I’m certain there’d be another major civil war within a decade and he’ll be deposed when French troops inevitably leave.