Was there a real chance that China could have been cut up?

Shackel

Banned
I've looked at a few maps and read some history, and I've noticed that, around 1898, not only was there a great fear that China would be cut up, but there were MASSIVE spheres of influence all across China.

Apparently only jealousy and the U.S's Open Door Policy stopped its annexation.

Was there a possibility, even a small one, of the Europeans deciding that it would be better to cut China up?

How would this affect WWI, and, more importantly, Germany? Germany had used the idea of liberation in Africa, would they use this in China to more avail?
 
I could definitely see Britain wanting to maintain China under it's sphere of influence, though France, Germany and Japan would likely all have their respective slices of China too. Basicly for Britain, China would be even harder than India to maintain though.

Well, Germany mainly went with the liberation, hearts and minds policy in Africa during WW1 because they couldn't effectively project power in the region so they wanted to use every colonial asset they could and make life harder on the Entente when their forces did eventually overrun their African colonies.

So naturally they'd do the same in China, if they held a chunk of it opposed to Britain, Japan and France's respective slices.

Britain and France would see a Chinese theater as a sideshow too, but Japan wouldn't. Couple this with the sheer logistic difficulties of arming the Chinese for Germany, and I don't see them being able to effectively hold China either. Especially since when the war starts that ends any German shipments of weapons to their colonials even if they do manage to arm them.
 
Shackel

I've looked at a few maps and read some history, and I've noticed that, around 1898, not only was there a great fear that China would be cut up, but there were MASSIVE spheres of influence all across China.

Apparently only jealousy and the U.S's Open Door Policy stopped its annexation.

Was there a possibility, even a small one, of the Europeans deciding that it would be better to cut China up?

Definitely a possibility, but probably a fairly low one. The key factor was that Britain, because of it's dominant role in China and belief in free trade had a strong vested interest in maintaining a unified Chinese state. Coupled with concern about potential Russian gains in the north and the preference of the government for most of the century to minimise areas under direct British rule [and hence responsibilities and costs]. Hence any real partition of China would have required either British interests being overridden [which would be very difficult given it's naval dominance] or a drastic change in the British attitude.

This was strengened further later on when America started becoming a major economic player in the region, as it had no real territorial claims and hence would lose out economically if there was a partition.

Given some change in Britain's stance, or possibly a total collapse in order in China, with the loss of any even nominal government. In the latter case you might see the western powers combining to intervene to protect their citizens, economic interests etc. This could well result in a partition as each nation chooses to priority the areas it's main interests are in. However given the very strong racial/national identity in China I think things would have to be very bad and then there would probably be considerable resistance.

How would this affect WWI, and, more importantly, Germany? Germany had used the idea of liberation in Africa, would they use this in China to more avail?

Where and when are you referring to Germany using the idea of liberation in Africa? I know they didn't in the imperial period and they arguably have the worst record of all the European powers in Africa. Also while the Nazis might have made noises in that direction to gain influence I doubt that would be worth more than any other overtone they made to another people.

If China had been partitioned then the German share, as a latecomer and presuming no major butterflies, would have been pretty much the Shangtung peninsula region. As such fairly small and say if the empire was replaced by a more democratic and liberal state it might well have found the idea of calling for greater political liberizaton in China as attractive.

Steve
 
In the sense of China literally becoming colonies of the various countries, incredibly unlikely.

If it happened what you'd see is some small areas becoming directly controlled/annexed territory while the remainder would become protectorates/puppet states of the Great Powers.

So for example, France might annex Hainan, the Leizhou peninsula and push the Indochinese border a bit further North in places, but the bulk of its area would become say the 'Republic/Kingdom of Guangdong' or something like that, which would be de facto under French control for the most part.
 

Shackel

Banned
Shackel




Where and when are you referring to Germany using the idea of liberation in Africa?

I must not have mentioned that.

In WWI they tried the whole "Liberate the Africans" thing in WWI to start revolts.

I was wondering if doing this in China may get more of a reaction.
 
I've looked at a few maps and read some history, and I've noticed that, around 1898, not only was there a great fear that China would be cut up, but there were MASSIVE spheres of influence all across China.

Apparently only jealousy and the U.S's Open Door Policy stopped its annexation.

Was there a possibility, even a small one, of the Europeans deciding that it would be better to cut China up?

How would this affect WWI, and, more importantly, Germany? Germany had used the idea of liberation in Africa, would they use this in China to more avail?

China has a history of breaking up and then getting back together again like Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor.

A window of opportunity for breaking up China would be to support or recognize some of the Warlords that appeared in the early 20th Century instead of propping up the National governent and especially Chiang Kai Shek. The Japanese would have taken the North East and some coastal areas and the rest of the country would break up into Warlord states.

European annexation would fail and either unite the Chinese peasantry against them or be destroyed by the Japanese.
 
Now, here's a situation I thought of earlier. There was a battle in the 750's at Talas in central Asia between the Tang Dynasty and the Abbassid Caliphate. What would need to have happened for a full Muslim conquest of China, and would this have any impact on the scenario thought of above?

(THREAD HIJACK, LOL)
 

Ian the Admin

Administrator
Donor
Now, here's a situation I thought of earlier. There was a battle in the 750's at Talas in central Asia between the Tang Dynasty and the Abbassid Caliphate. What would need to have happened for a full Muslim conquest of China, and would this have any impact on the scenario thought of above?

(THREAD HIJACK, LOL)

Thread hijacking is not appreciated here. Don't troll.
 
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