Was the Iranian Revolution inevitable?

Realpolitik

Banned
What a lot of people seem to forget is that the Saudi regime has sustained itself by making concessions to the puritans in their midst. It was, at one point in the recent past, a fairly standard, albeit despotic, Gulf monarchy, along the lines of Qatar or Jordan. Rather than antagonizing religious hardliners, as the Shah did, the Sauds instead began to increasingly accommodate them from the 1970s onwards (banning women from driving, an enhanced crackdown on 'immoral' media, etc.). I blame this conciliatory shift in attitudes for a lot of the radicalism festering in the Middle East today.

As far as I can see, there are two problems with replicating this scenario in Iran. The first is that the Shah anchored a lot of his legitimacy, however dishonestly, in his track record as a Western-oriented reformer. The liberal middle class was, and continues to be, a far more influential component within Iranian society than virtually anywhere else in the Islamic world (Turkey being the probable exception). Any swing in a religious direction, as the ayatollahs will inevitably demand, risks incurring the ire of a vital pillar for the Pahlavi dynasty. More importantly, the Iranian opposition was never clearly dominated by a single political element until after the Shah's overthrow; in fact, the U.S. State Department, based on intelligence assessments, had expected a takeover by progressives and leftists in the aftermath of the Revolution. For Saudi-style concessions, not only would the Shah have to be ready to compromise in the first place, Khomeini's lot would have to be a lot more dominant from the outset.

Exactly. Also, the problem with the White Revolution was that it not only alienated a lot of the ulema and feudal landlords, but it also promised too much and let a lot of the revunue be sucked up by the army and the Shah's cronies via corruption, leading to predictable anger. It also had certain unintended consequences-literacy and high school graduation boomed during the Shah's rule, but similarly to modern Egypt, that created problems when the Iranian economy couldn't handle all these graduates, who then were ripe for Ayatollah Khomeini to influence. Great idea, poor implementation.

This didn't cause the revolution by itself, but when the Shah began to get more and more outlandish throughout the 70s, it set the stage for it. The Ayatollah's image was a 180 degree difference from the Shah, in all of the right ways, for many of the young men who supported the movement.
 

abc123

Banned
Well, in the end, they didn't do him any good, did it.

Common mistake - thinking weapons make you safe.

No, I meant was his spending on weapons a reason for his fall?

And I know that it did not help him, but it helped Iran a lot during the war with Iraq...;)
 
He wasn't too bad a leader

Mosaddegh was a pretty poor leader. He'd subverted the semi-democratic system that had placed him in power and was ruling by decree when he was overthrown. As you stated he alienated his support on the Left and on the Right and through his own actions became politically isolated, creating the perfect opportunity for intervention by the US or the USSR. Not to mention that the British were willing to make significant concessions and give the Iranians all the Majlis had asked for when they originally voted for nationalization, but he wouldn't end the crisis and in the process alienated the originally pro-Iranian United States which had hoped that the British and Iranians would reach a deal similar to the one between the Arabian-American Oil Company and the Saudis. There's also the fact of the matter that he came to power because his supporters murdered the Prime Minster Razmara (who unlike Mosaddegh was actually working towards democratization) and threatened to kill the Shah, forcing the Shah to appoint Mosaddegh to try and placate National Front.
 

Realpolitik

Banned
Do you think that Shah had spend too much on weapons?:confused:

The Shah had the 5th largest army on Earth, generously supplied by the US, but they largely were prepared for dealing with the Soviets or with one of their Arab allies, not riot control. That was a factor in why the revolution took off to a degree nearly unparalleled in history. It also was a factor in why the Iran-Iraq War was so violent and long in spite of Iraq getting the support of pretty much the entire world, because guess who inherited the weapons?
 
Mosaddegh was a pretty poor leader. He'd subverted the semi-democratic system that had placed him in power and was ruling by decree when he was overthrown. As you stated he alienated his support on the Left and on the Right and through his own actions became politically isolated, creating the perfect opportunity for intervention by the US or the USSR. Not to mention that the British were willing to make significant concessions and give the Iranians all the Majlis had asked for when they originally voted for nationalization, but he wouldn't end the crisis and in the process alienated the originally pro-Iranian United States which had hoped that the British and Iranians would reach a deal similar to the one between the Arabian-American Oil Company and the Saudis. There's also the fact of the matter that he came to power because his supporters murdered the Prime Minster Razmara (who unlike Mosaddegh was actually working towards democratization) and threatened to kill the Shah, forcing the Shah to appoint Mosaddegh to try and placate National Front.
Ah, so even more of a mess than I thought. :p Just goes to show how little truth there is in the 'if only the CIA hadn't overthrown Mossadegh, there would be peace in the Middle East' meme.
No, I meant was his spending on weapons a reason for his fall?
Not directly, but economic mismanagement (of which the military buildup was an element) helped create the circumstances of the revolution. There was plenty of other unwise spending, and singling out armaments isn't particularly helpful.
 
The Shah had the 5th largest army on Earth, generously supplied by the US, but they largely were prepared for dealing with the Soviets or with one of their Arab allies, not riot control. That was a factor in why the revolution took off to a degree nearly unparalleled in history. It also was a factor in why the Iran-Iraq War was so violent and long in spite of Iraq getting the support of pretty much the entire world, because guess who inherited the weapons?

Why were the US giving Iran such a generous amount of weapons? What was the main reason?
 

Delta Force

Banned
So Iran could act as a bulwark against Soviet influence in the Middle East.

I've also heard it argued that a secondary reason was to make Imperial Iran in debt to the West. It was hoped that the debt would force Iranian petroleum to keep flowing in the event of another energy crisis, which was crucial given that it was the largest exporter of petroleum to Western nations during the 1970s.

Ironically, the Iranian Revolution led directly to the Second Energy Crisis in 1979.
 
Remember that there were a considerable amount of secular liberals among the opposition who could conceivably be brought into the tent a lot earlier. Perhaps if Shapour Bakhtiar was approached by the Shah in the mid 70s enough reforms could be enacted to stave off the crisis. In other words, the Shah could work with the Ayatollahs or the liberals but he cannot have both — their alliance to bring down the Shah was always going to be temporary and it is rather akin to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

However doing this years earlier will require the Shah to be realistic about how precarious his position was. In hindsight its amazing he didn't get this given the contemporary examples of Haile Selassie in Ethiopia and Zahir Shah in Afghanistan. You will also need Bakhtiar to not be so naive with respect to Khomeini. The unfortunate Bakhtiar really brought a knife to a gunfight on that one.
 

Realpolitik

Banned
Was Iran the only US ally in the region during that time? Wasn't Pakistan also kinda pro-US?

Until Nixon, we largely took a pro-Indian and relatively pro-Soviet stance against the Chinese, and China was Pakistan's main ally. It wasn't against Pakistan persay, but we ignored them in favor of anti-Chinese global politics. So not until the 70s in an explicit sense. And they were far from alone. Don't forget, most of the Arab World, especially Egypt, leaned towards the Soviets until the 70s.

The problem was that the Shah didn't train them to deal with internal uprisings, as well as his behavior getting more and more offensive to the population throughout the 70s, especially the sectors like the clergy that he already pissed off by land reform or giving women and non-Muslims voting rights. I've never seen something politically stupider than the Persopolis festival in 1971, or changing the Islamic calender to an Imperial one, or creating Rastakhiz. The Shah was a rather indecisive man, who was near death by 1978. He ended up taking the worst combination of appeasement followed by Black Friday, which was the Rubicon moment. Combine that with a man in the WH who is publicly urging human rights in 1977 and will not support a violent crackdown, but later waffles on his commitment to democracy, and you've got a disaster.
 
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Ah, so even more of a mess than I thought. :p Just goes to show how little truth there is in the 'if only the CIA hadn't overthrown Mossadegh, there would be peace in the Middle East' meme.

People who believe that line of thought aren't typically familiar with Mossadegh's rise to power and fail to take into account that an important factor in the successful deposition of Mossadegh was that he had lost the support of Ayatollah Kashani and by extension much of the middle class by demanding ever more extensions of emergency power. The Shah had deposed Mossadegh in 52, but had been forced to reappoint him after the after riots among the general populous were incited by the the Iranian clerics, National Front, and the Tudeh. There is no question that the Shah was afraid of ousting Mossadegh a second time, but even if the US had not acted, it's very probable that Mossadegh's government would fall. Iran falling to the Tudeh wouldn't have been tolerated by the US and there is a strong chance of Civil War which would be a disaster. Of course there is also the possibility of Kashani and the clerics establishing an early Islamic Republic.
 
Regarding Mossadegh...
I think people keep on missing the whole background basis of colonialism that is the basis for the oil nationalization, and the hatred towards the West...
This doesn't just apply to Iran, it also applies to other colonized and quasi-colonized states.

Do you know why the Chinese see the Japanese as worse than the CCP, despite the CCP's atrocities? It's because at least the CCP had legitimacy as rulers of China, because their basis was indigenous origin. They may have gotten support from the USSR, but their rule was perceived as rooted as a Chinese thing, rather than a foreign one. And considering what came afterwards with the Sino-Soviet split, they weren't puppets of other powers.
The Japanese, on the other hand, were seen as foreign rulers who wished to subjugate the Chinese under their rule, and who did so through horrific atrocities that rivaled the Nazis, which was unacceptable to the Chinese. This was different from the previous conquest dynasties (like the Qing), due to the rise of Chinese nationalism (along with the fact that these dynasties took pains to style themselves in the Chinese manner, though that is of lesser importance).

This is why I think is the reason that despite Mossadegh's errors and foibles, the coup was still a bad idea, as it robbed the Shah of any legitimacy from the view of the Iranians. It's like why putting Puyi as the leader of Manchukuo didn't work-people don't see the Shah's rule as an Iranian one, but as a foreign-imposed one, like Puyi in Manchukuo was seen as a Japanese puppet (which he was).
Mossadegh, on the other hand, was seen as an Iranian leader who was deposed by the foreign powers in exchange for their preferred sockpuppet. And in the view of the Iranians, the coup robbed them of their agency to do what they wished-to choose their own leaders who did policies that they supported, which in this case was oil nationalization, which was a highly emotional one for Iranians as they saw the deal they had with the British as utterly unfair, where they got gypped out of the $$$ (leading to the rise of Iranian nationalism).
Of course, there were complications and the like, but the fact of the matter is, the Shah wasn't seen as legitimate because of the coup...

The coup also added to this sense of injustice that the Iranians, like all colonized/quasi-colonized peoples, have towards the West, in that "Why is it that if the West does x, it's fine by them, but when we want to do the same thing, it's not allowed?"
This is seen to this present day with the Iranian nukes, where they see the West as trying to screw them up like with the oil, saying "Your worries about our use of nuclear energy is the same as what your worries over our ability to handle our oil resources back then, and back then it turned out to be bullshit!"
It is no coincidence that one of the things that the Islamist regime did was to nationalize the oil resources, like they did back then.
(This also explains why these countries are more supportive of Russia and China, in that they see them as less hypocritical by comparison to the West).

There is this fundamental sense of injustice that underlines all of this...as explained by Pankaj Mishra, author of the book From the Ruins of Empire.
 
I never meant to insinuate that the coup was a good thing, I was simply saying that the typical anti-Western and anti-American idea that everything would be hunky-dory had the US not provided the Shah and the Iranian military with enough financial incentive to hasten what was likely already on its way reflects a misunderstanding of the situation.
 
I never meant to insinuate that the coup was a good thing, I was simply saying that the typical anti-Western and anti-American idea that everything would be hunky-dory had the US not provided the Shah and the Iranian military with enough financial incentive to hasten what was likely already on its way reflects a misunderstanding of the situation.

Well yes, but there's a basis for why such anti-Western ideas exist, which is that the West can choose their own leaders, while we cannot truly do so...
 
Some thoughts:

What if the Shah was killed 1965?

Alternatively, would have helped if the Vietnam war was prevented or saw negotiatiated peace 1969-70? Would that have helped with the "Soviets are triumphant" perception, thus leading to less panic, in turn leading to smarter policies in the 1970's?

And on effects -- can we safely say the the bloodbath of OTL's Iran-Iraq War wouldn't happen absent the Iranian Revolution? I've heard it said that the Shah's military was the most effective in the region, and even assuming that if Saddam had still attacked they would have made short work of his forces.
 
Avoid 1953 Crisis and Mossadegh Remained in Power or Khomeini never Existed and Butterflying 1979 Iranian Revolution, Persecution of Iranian Sunnis, Iran-Iraq War, Gulf War and Iraq War

Iran would be Pro-US Country like Turkey

Iran would be Better off Without Khomeini
 
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