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I'm writing something at the moment which ends roughly in a draw between The Western Powers (minus USA) and the Central Powers and its got me pondering were the ethnic tensions in Austria-Hungary too great for it to survive, even without Versailles (and Wilson)

A lot of Central Power victory TLs have it reforming into something like a Danubian Federation. How likely is that? (especially of there's no reparations being paid to it)
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