hey, all. i just wanted to ask a quick question pertaining to my Anglo-American Rivalry TL. in the TL, i decided that the Oregon Treaty doesn't occur (at least not when it does IOTL), and a war takes place instead between the US and UK. anyway, getting to the point, does anyone think that the acquisition of Oregon Country/Columbia by the US from the UK--peacefully, without having to conquer it--would be inevitable even after a war between the two countries over it? and if so, when would it be ceded?
Was the cession of Oregon inevitable?
- Thread starter oshron
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If there is a war and Britain wins, they might try and stifle American immigration there. This may or may not be successful.
Britain might try and make Oregon a semi-independent dominion too. You could spin it as a better alternative to US statehood.
After Britain fought a war over it, I can't see them as relinquishing it too easily.
Britain might try and make Oregon a semi-independent dominion too. You could spin it as a better alternative to US statehood.
After Britain fought a war over it, I can't see them as relinquishing it too easily.
Depends largely on the timeframe and events relative to OTL- three factors are of considerable importance: the dates the Oregon Trail comes in to wide use, the dates the BC Gold Rush occurs, and whether or not events similar to Ewing Young's death and the Wolf Meetings occur (both of which led to the understanding that proper government of some sort was needed in Oregon, and led to the creation of the Oregon Provisional Government, and with a few minor PODs could have led to an independent Oregon).
The most the British could get depends on how far along we are compared to OTL- after 1843 or so, their chance of getting the whole thing was incredibly slim thanks to the massive number of Americans occupying the area south of the Columbia, but even up to the final settlement, there was a good chance they would have the 'Columbia River to the 49th' border. (A much higher chance would exist for much longer if George Simpson had fired John McLoughlin from his position as Chief Factor of the Hudson's Bay Company in the Columbia District; McLoughlin was a large part of the reason those settlers were allowed to stay, and he even gave them supplies against company credit with the promise of eventual repayment; many of the Americans later reused to repay their debts, and after the border settlement, McLoughlin actually took on the company's 'bad loans' when he settled in Oregon City [after being mired in legal troubles when Americans tried to claim his property, saying he was not American and therefore had no claim in what was now American land- he lost significant portions of his claim without repayment], and never really did insist on repayment for the goods he'd offered, taking a severe loss for being a kind human being.)
The Americans, similarly, could probably have bargained for more if they had waited longer- even during the 1850s, after the settlement was finished, the BC Gold Rush made a lot of people concerned that BC would petition for statehood.
An independent Oregon is also possible- there were many opportunities for it and many supporters of it, and the great thing is, it actually existed in one form. An independent Oregon is possible any time before 1846, and distinctly likely around the time of the Wolf Meetings. An independent Oregon would probably be heavily influenced by the British- John McLoughlin was the benevolent dictator of the whole of Oregon Country from the 1820s right to 1846 (some Americans assessed that 'he held dictatorial powers,' but 'could not find a single instance of abuse [of those powers]')- but the Americans (missionaries in particular- Jason Lee and Marcus Whitman, for prime examples- not to mention folks like US Marshal Joseph Meek or highly influential storeowner George Abernethy) held quite a bit of sway, especially to the south, and especially after the Oregon Trail opened up.
The most the British could get depends on how far along we are compared to OTL- after 1843 or so, their chance of getting the whole thing was incredibly slim thanks to the massive number of Americans occupying the area south of the Columbia, but even up to the final settlement, there was a good chance they would have the 'Columbia River to the 49th' border. (A much higher chance would exist for much longer if George Simpson had fired John McLoughlin from his position as Chief Factor of the Hudson's Bay Company in the Columbia District; McLoughlin was a large part of the reason those settlers were allowed to stay, and he even gave them supplies against company credit with the promise of eventual repayment; many of the Americans later reused to repay their debts, and after the border settlement, McLoughlin actually took on the company's 'bad loans' when he settled in Oregon City [after being mired in legal troubles when Americans tried to claim his property, saying he was not American and therefore had no claim in what was now American land- he lost significant portions of his claim without repayment], and never really did insist on repayment for the goods he'd offered, taking a severe loss for being a kind human being.)
The Americans, similarly, could probably have bargained for more if they had waited longer- even during the 1850s, after the settlement was finished, the BC Gold Rush made a lot of people concerned that BC would petition for statehood.
An independent Oregon is also possible- there were many opportunities for it and many supporters of it, and the great thing is, it actually existed in one form. An independent Oregon is possible any time before 1846, and distinctly likely around the time of the Wolf Meetings. An independent Oregon would probably be heavily influenced by the British- John McLoughlin was the benevolent dictator of the whole of Oregon Country from the 1820s right to 1846 (some Americans assessed that 'he held dictatorial powers,' but 'could not find a single instance of abuse [of those powers]')- but the Americans (missionaries in particular- Jason Lee and Marcus Whitman, for prime examples- not to mention folks like US Marshal Joseph Meek or highly influential storeowner George Abernethy) held quite a bit of sway, especially to the south, and especially after the Oregon Trail opened up.