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There's been alot of discussion of whether the Sino-Soviet split was an inevitable thing or a contingent thing.

Much less discussion of Sino-Soviet, and then Sino-Russian, relations over the last thirty years.

To me, the last thirty years, especially the last 25, have been a golden age of Sino-Russian relations.

The countries have not had security incidents or proxy struggles, they trade in arms and other sectors, very often coordinate on UN votes, have a loose cooperative organization (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) that's now 22 years old. Although at times border disputes and border conflicts have been a big factor in Sino-Soviet relations, the leadership in both countries seem to have decided for the last couple decades that these are not relevant. Both seem to accept the status quo of the Mongolian state between them.

Do they "trust" each other? No. Do they have identical interests? No. Are there racists on each side with stereotypes of the other? Yes. Does that mean they are secret enemies? Only if you set the bar really, really low.

Looked at from the perspective of 1965, 1975 or 1985, today's Russia and China are practically BFFs.

Was this inevitable? Or was it contingent on specific efforts to get along?

An argument for inevitability might go like this: Once Russia forefeited the Cold War and greatly weakened as a global power, and America "won" it, it became inevitable weaker Russia and China would cooperate to play against the "winner".

An argument for contingency might go like this: Russian or Chinese leaders since the 1980s had plenty of negative lifetime experiences and a record of historic slights, claims and counterclaims that could easily have been exploited to justify fear and hostility to one another. That this did not happen is a reflection of good policy judgement and good diplomacy on both sides, at least on the issue of their mutual relations.
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