Was Nazi Germany sustainable?
- Thread starter Al-Za’im
- Start date
I imagine the UK would get its first atomic bombs in the mid to late 1940s; I don't see the US cutting off access to their research like they did in OTL given the situation, and they're right on the frontline in this Cold War. They might even just straight up license-produce American-designed atomic weapons, at least until they develop their own designs.
Dropping them on Germany right away is another question though. If it's an Axis victory, that would mean the Allies are far from having air superiority over continental Europe. It'll probably take at least a few bombs to make Japan surrender in this world, and by that time fighting in the European theatre will have mostly been stalemated for a while, with bomber raids becoming less and less frequent as air defenses are beefed up on both sides of the Channel and their thus becoming too expensive in losses of aircraft and personnel to be worthwhile. It may already be a Warm War-like situation like in AANW, with the active combat mostly only being done in the Battle of the Atlantic. Still, it could happen, especially if Germany has gone all-out on launching rockets at Britain (and perhaps later the northeastern US, if the war goes long enough for the A10 to see action), the Allies could feel obligated to respond with nuclear weapons, regardless of the risk of losing many planes on the way. Still though, one bomb a month, and those bombs often being shot down before they reach their targets, is probably a slow way to kill Germany. I imagine the rocket and bomb exchange would only go for a short while before both sides end active fighting and the situation cools down to Warm or Cold War.
If one wants a plot element for Germany to get the bomb earlier (say mid to late 1940s), having them copy recovered Allied ones they salvage from downed bombers might be feasible.
I'm not sure but it was published about the right time to be.
Such a program would suck away limited resources from other priorities. Extracting resources from Russia would take a lot of time, especially with Generalplan Ost (which would certainly harm their war efforts by causing massive loss in population and labour supply).
It would be mixed with normal bombings. The British, knowing full well that Germany has better AA than Japan, would have never sent a single bomber against them. So, we can still roll a dice that results in all nuclear bombs being successfully dropped as the Germans only manages to shoot down normal bombers, or at least being intercepted far less often than expected.
Several nukes hitting the Ruhr would have destroyed at least a third of Germany's industroal capacity.
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While copying and possibly reconditioning a uranium gun-type bomb is relatively believable [1] the engineerig know-how to manage controlled implosion of a plutonium bomb is more demanding, so even if one did somehow get recovered intact, reconditioning it would be hard. Either way, they then have to develop a delivery system.
Note 1. Imagine the (very brief) surprise of the Postamt bomb team when they collect together the 50+ kilos of enriched uranium they think they need to make a viable bomb and stack up in a neat pile in the store room...
Well, it amused me.
Note 1. Imagine the (very brief) surprise of the Postamt bomb team when they collect together the 50+ kilos of enriched uranium they think they need to make a viable bomb and stack up in a neat pile in the store room...
Well, it amused me.
I imagine that a Germany that's defeated the USSR in 1942 or 1943 wouldn't have all that many priorities by 1945 to worry about over striking the Western Allies. Generalplan Ost will be an ongoing fight against partisans for a long time, but it would demand far less troops (and especially far less military vehicles) than the active frontline of OTL in which they were fighting (and soon losing) against what was still a functional and powerful country, rather than just an insurgency (and an insurgency that's very quickly losing its fighters and supportive populations to genocide at that). Even while losing a war on a still-active frontline, Germany was able to build over 3,000 V2 rockets and cause the deaths of about 9,000 people with them. With Fortress Europe only threatened by Allied bombing (and much less threatened by it than in OTL, with still-good air defenses), I imagine they could build and launch rockets in significantly higher numbers, and be pursuing the A9 design by 1945.
Good point about the nukes though. I don't think it would quite be enough to collapse them or weak enough to invade but it would maybe be enough to deal them serious damage, about on the scale they inflicted on the Soviet Union in OTL. I recall in AANW, most of their major cities and military sites were eventually nuked and it was still a horribly bloody three-year campaign on land to defeat them (and that was in the late 50s and early 60s; I don't imagine the Allies would have the energy to do that right in the 40s, after going Downfall on Japan).
From the german national socialist's point of view the weimar republic (1918-1932) was seen as a jewish paradise and a german living hell (from the german national socialist's point of view),
When the german national socialist's came to power in 1933 and started it's persecution of what it saw as a very highly treasonist and subversive anti german movement that were enemie's of the german people,
By 1939 the german economic miracle in economic input and (output) of gross domestic product and (purchasing power parity) had more then octupled in the fastest growing economy in the world,
From a deliberately economically crippled underdeveloped third world country that was fatally dependent on foreign import's and (iou's) ect in 1932,
To a great power second only to the (british empire) that had successfully implemented partial autarky and was mostly self sufficient and that was on the road to surpassing the dominant great power at that time that was the british empire by the mid 1940's had war not broken out,
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But if germany had retooled there factorie's useing a (fordism) layout and mind set in it's light and heavy industrie's starting in 1933,
And had they decoupled the reichsmark currency from the gold standard currency regime and based it on a delayed peg exchange rate regime and (fiat currency),
With more production of the lanz bulldog (d9506) tractor and the lanz bulldog crawler based of the lanz bulldog (d9506) for the mechanization of the farming and (agriculture industry),
Had germany discovered the thetorzym cybinka oil field and (debno oil field) (altmark gas field) in 1933,
And then export some of that oil and natural gas to germany's border neighbor's and (scandinavia) to make several billion's of reichsmark's per year that can be used to buy foreign strategic resource's that germany lack's domestically,
And had germany discovered the matzen oil field in 1938,
By 1939 germany would have been the first dominant superpower,
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The soviet union's era of stagnation and (collapse) had fare more to do with the very highly treasonist and subversive anti khrushchevism from (1953-1964),
And the very heavy handed mismanagement and or the outright cancellation of the khrushchevism reform's (1964-1973) in (light and heavy industrie's) (farming and agriculture industry) (government organization's and administration) (transportation) (currency and finance) (ogas) ect,
Had khrushchev stood up to the anti soviet reform traitor's and or brezhnev or whoever that came after khrushchev continued most of the khrushchevism reform's and did a better job at management then in (are time line) the soviet union would still be around today,
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Say if germany successfully defeat's the soviet union by 1943 like in my post over on (minimal pod's for barbarossa to succeed taking leningrad-moscow-rostov and holding the citie's through winter) on the 14th of january 2022,
Germany would have had the human resource's and other (strategic resource's) to go in to thing's like,
Rheinmetall borsig ag's model 1940 electrostatic proximity fuze and or other proximity fuze's,
More production of 8.8 cm flak 18/42 (l/78) that had barrel's based on the monoblock construction of the flak 18 on strengthened flak 37 chassi's useing flak 41 ammunition with a maximum ceiling of well over 50,000 feet altitude,
Amerikabomber's like the heinkel he 177b-5 that would need a grappled line looped hose and a aerial refueling tanker based on the (heinkel he 177b-5),
Surface to air missile's,
Aggregat a4b missile's propelled by nitric acid and kerosene fuel with a range of over 2,000 kilometer's,
And a aggregat a4b/a10 missile as a two stage (icbm) to hit strategic target's on the american mainland's east coast from launch site's deep inside germany,
Or mario zippermayr's first and (second) generation's of vacuum weapon's that can be used on surface to air missile's and (aggregat a4b missile's),
As well as (tabun nerve agent) that the gas mask's in use by the allie's provide's no protection against that and can be used on aggregat a4b missile's,
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And or if you believe the fun conspiracy theory post over on (german nuclear program bomb-reactor) on the 21st of january 2022,
That germany would have had several thousand's of uranium 233 atomic weapon's by 1943 had the member's of the june 1942 harnack hau's conference been grouped together and (properly funded),
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If germany can defeat the soviet union by 1943 it is well on the road to long term sustainability.
When the german national socialist's came to power in 1933 and started it's persecution of what it saw as a very highly treasonist and subversive anti german movement that were enemie's of the german people,
By 1939 the german economic miracle in economic input and (output) of gross domestic product and (purchasing power parity) had more then octupled in the fastest growing economy in the world,
From a deliberately economically crippled underdeveloped third world country that was fatally dependent on foreign import's and (iou's) ect in 1932,
To a great power second only to the (british empire) that had successfully implemented partial autarky and was mostly self sufficient and that was on the road to surpassing the dominant great power at that time that was the british empire by the mid 1940's had war not broken out,
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But if germany had retooled there factorie's useing a (fordism) layout and mind set in it's light and heavy industrie's starting in 1933,
And had they decoupled the reichsmark currency from the gold standard currency regime and based it on a delayed peg exchange rate regime and (fiat currency),
With more production of the lanz bulldog (d9506) tractor and the lanz bulldog crawler based of the lanz bulldog (d9506) for the mechanization of the farming and (agriculture industry),
Had germany discovered the thetorzym cybinka oil field and (debno oil field) (altmark gas field) in 1933,
And then export some of that oil and natural gas to germany's border neighbor's and (scandinavia) to make several billion's of reichsmark's per year that can be used to buy foreign strategic resource's that germany lack's domestically,
And had germany discovered the matzen oil field in 1938,
By 1939 germany would have been the first dominant superpower,
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The soviet union's era of stagnation and (collapse) had fare more to do with the very highly treasonist and subversive anti khrushchevism from (1953-1964),
And the very heavy handed mismanagement and or the outright cancellation of the khrushchevism reform's (1964-1973) in (light and heavy industrie's) (farming and agriculture industry) (government organization's and administration) (transportation) (currency and finance) (ogas) ect,
Had khrushchev stood up to the anti soviet reform traitor's and or brezhnev or whoever that came after khrushchev continued most of the khrushchevism reform's and did a better job at management then in (are time line) the soviet union would still be around today,
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Say if germany successfully defeat's the soviet union by 1943 like in my post over on (minimal pod's for barbarossa to succeed taking leningrad-moscow-rostov and holding the citie's through winter) on the 14th of january 2022,
Germany would have had the human resource's and other (strategic resource's) to go in to thing's like,
Rheinmetall borsig ag's model 1940 electrostatic proximity fuze and or other proximity fuze's,
More production of 8.8 cm flak 18/42 (l/78) that had barrel's based on the monoblock construction of the flak 18 on strengthened flak 37 chassi's useing flak 41 ammunition with a maximum ceiling of well over 50,000 feet altitude,
Amerikabomber's like the heinkel he 177b-5 that would need a grappled line looped hose and a aerial refueling tanker based on the (heinkel he 177b-5),
Surface to air missile's,
Aggregat a4b missile's propelled by nitric acid and kerosene fuel with a range of over 2,000 kilometer's,
And a aggregat a4b/a10 missile as a two stage (icbm) to hit strategic target's on the american mainland's east coast from launch site's deep inside germany,
Or mario zippermayr's first and (second) generation's of vacuum weapon's that can be used on surface to air missile's and (aggregat a4b missile's),
As well as (tabun nerve agent) that the gas mask's in use by the allie's provide's no protection against that and can be used on aggregat a4b missile's,
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And or if you believe the fun conspiracy theory post over on (german nuclear program bomb-reactor) on the 21st of january 2022,
That germany would have had several thousand's of uranium 233 atomic weapon's by 1943 had the member's of the june 1942 harnack hau's conference been grouped together and (properly funded),
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If germany can defeat the soviet union by 1943 it is well on the road to long term sustainability.
Even most members of the Inner Party don't think the Inner Party's way, ironically. Remember, admission to the Party was by what was essentially an IQ test: the 98th and 99th percentiles were admitted to the Inner Party, and the 85th to 97th percentiles to the Outer Party. If 1984 was real, there would probably be more "true believers" in the Outer Party. Both the Inner and Outer Party would be rife with opportunists, but I really doubt most people who qualified for the Inner Party would believe in that nonsense....
Darzin
Banned
There's an interesting scene in the book of the New Sun by Gene Wolfe where a prisoner tells a story. He's from a society where a version of newspeak has succeeded that has totally reshaped how language is used. People only speak in passages from approved texts and thus thoughtcrime is impossible. except not really because they just use approved texts to still express human emotions, but it does need to be interprepted. I always imagine this is what would really happen with newspeak people desire to express basic human emotions whether they are "approved" or not.
That is utter crap. After 1923 the German economy was doing well, even if it was propped up by American loans. It wasn’t until the Freat Depression things went south again, and the Weimar leadership put in place plans to help the economy recover. Those would have worked had the Nazis not taken over and shifted so completely to armaments.
If hitler dies not *too* (I mean, not as long as mao lived after 1949) long after a german victory in ww2 then he'll be basically divinised in German culture, politics and history, and I don't see that changing even if the US/UK invade and dismember germany.
So Nazi germany itself may fall to civil war, may have long period of instabilities, split or lose most of its influence in europe, but Hitler's impact on the politics and leadership of any german population of europe will be indelible, or extremely long lasting. I don't see why german politician, general or dictator would not claim some legitimacy or legacy from him in the present day. A brand or variation of Hitlerism among European German will be sustained in such a scenario, whether it is allowed to come to power is another matter
So Nazi germany itself may fall to civil war, may have long period of instabilities, split or lose most of its influence in europe, but Hitler's impact on the politics and leadership of any german population of europe will be indelible, or extremely long lasting. I don't see why german politician, general or dictator would not claim some legitimacy or legacy from him in the present day. A brand or variation of Hitlerism among European German will be sustained in such a scenario, whether it is allowed to come to power is another matter
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If nazis had somehow succeeded in the East we would have seen a lot of semi autonomous personal fiefdoms of nazi high officials rather than one giant highly organized monolithic state. Here they would have to accommodate Slavs to run them ,staff them and fight for them.
Back in Germany conditions may have worsened considerably and we could see a more genuinely national SOCIALIST movement ala S.A gain power which might accuse the conquistador fiefdoms of the east as sellouts. While the nazi top brass might crack down hard on these ideologues as a fifth column.
In other words there is no chance in hell such an empire could last for longer than a couple of decades in its original form.Just too many internal contradictions.
You cannot survive in 20th century economic system with an ideology rooted in the time of Alexander, Atilla and genghis khan.
Back in Germany conditions may have worsened considerably and we could see a more genuinely national SOCIALIST movement ala S.A gain power which might accuse the conquistador fiefdoms of the east as sellouts. While the nazi top brass might crack down hard on these ideologues as a fifth column.
In other words there is no chance in hell such an empire could last for longer than a couple of decades in its original form.Just too many internal contradictions.
You cannot survive in 20th century economic system with an ideology rooted in the time of Alexander, Atilla and genghis khan.
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It depends entirely on the circumstances the war ends under. I don’t believe they’d fact economic collapse though. The thing about these fascist countries, is that while they Had economic theories... they were much less tethered to them than a lot of socialist Countries. They’d probably be much more willing to reform.
Garrison
Donor
The loans were the problem, it was creating a vicious circle of taking out US loans to buy US goods and then taking out more loans to cover the previous loans. The aim was political and not economic, to tie the USA to Germany in such a way that they would support the renegotiation of reparations. It worked for a while but even before the Great Depression it was already failing. It was a policy that was going to blow up their faces in the face of any economic setback in the USA, even one with far less severe consequences globally than the Great Depression. The deflationary policies adopted by Weimar in response to the recession might have worked, but they had a terrible impact on the living standards of ordinary Germans, discredited Weimar and left the country eager to listen to the extremists on the Left and the Right offering promises of easy solutions.
Pakistan and Egypt are countries whose economies are also propped up by US loans but their people are one of the most anti American ( even more than Iranians ) in the world
Which countries don’t like America and which do
Who likes Uncle Sam, who doesn’t and whose affections are evolving paints a pretty accurate road map of the overseas challenges facing Washington in the years ahead.
www.pewresearch.org
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