The massacres were the result of political repression not a fundamental part of Sukarno's ideology
Was Nazi Germany sustainable?
- Thread starter Al-Za’im
- Start date
A person who visited Indonesia in the early 2000s (can't remember which) described it as seeing the Nazis still power after the Holocaust.
Darzin
Banned
I think the Khmer Rouge and the cultural revolution show a country can endure quite a bit.
The Nazis can complete their plans as long as they are willing to work to death millions of slave laborers. Which they are so.. As for settlers I imagine being plantation owners might appeal to some plus free land, You'll get some probably not the desired amount but enough to have pinprick settlements around useful resources which is all you need to benefit Germany.
I also think if Germany starts having economic problems the Nazis will be open to economic reform. Not racial or politically certainly but economic I could see.
Plus they have a bit of a shell game where only Germans count for living standards. That's less than half the population of their new Empire. Even IOTL Germans that were formerly working class could now afford maids and servants "from the east."
Finally, IOTL North Korea exists and has survived and I think Nazis Germany will certainly have a higher standard of living than then.
The Nazis can complete their plans as long as they are willing to work to death millions of slave laborers. Which they are so.. As for settlers I imagine being plantation owners might appeal to some plus free land, You'll get some probably not the desired amount but enough to have pinprick settlements around useful resources which is all you need to benefit Germany.
I also think if Germany starts having economic problems the Nazis will be open to economic reform. Not racial or politically certainly but economic I could see.
Plus they have a bit of a shell game where only Germans count for living standards. That's less than half the population of their new Empire. Even IOTL Germans that were formerly working class could now afford maids and servants "from the east."
Finally, IOTL North Korea exists and has survived and I think Nazis Germany will certainly have a higher standard of living than then.
That’s an analogy, not a serious comparison. Indonesia after the 1965 mass killings is a world apart from a victorious Nazi Germany that rules Europe and is actively killing and enslaving millions of people on a regular basis.
If there ever was a justified violation of Godwin's Law that was it.
How? The Nazis economy is based on the enslavement and the looting of Eastern Europe. Reforming the economy without touching these subjects is impossible
North Korea survives only thanks to China. Nazi Germany wouldn't have this situation
Maybe if you had Hitler die naturally in 1938, Nazi Germany might become more like Franco's Spain or OTL China, a strict dictatorship with an economy that has problems, but not enough to collapse it. Once Hitler started a war with most of the world, Nazi Germany was doomed to be stamped out.
But the Nazis needed the war. The German economy was on the verge on collapse by 1938/1939
Maybe if you killed him off around 1933/1934 your scenario would be more likely
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
You don't need to put in a date there beyond 1917 to about 1947. It will always be true, whichever year you specify.
I find the assumption that Nazi Germany would inevitably collapse in a few decades of a victory in WW2, to be frankly naive. Economic troubles wouldn't be sufficient to bring down the regime, no matter how evil it is. Empires don't rise and fall because they deserve it (or not). As to the claim that the Nazis would wipe out all their slaves and their economy would grind to a halt after that... Probably not true. The system planned out seems to have been a certain proportion of Slavs and other minorities to serve as slaves to German settlers on a permanent basis, separate from the Vernichtung durch Arbeit (murder/destruction through labor), deportation, or murder of most of the population which was also planned.
Basically, the plan would most likely have led to the expulsion/murder of enough "subhumans" to enable the creation of a permanent underclass to facilitate a plantation system, perhaps best comparable to pre-revolution Haiti, or the Antebellum South. While this system is economically laughable, it could last a long time, especially if adjustments are made to fit the new needs of the Nazi economy (and they would be made). As no plan survives contact with the enemy, so too would Generalplan Ost be modified in execution. It should also be noted that Generalplan Ost is not known in its entirety, and much of the documentation that would be extremely useful in figuring out exactly what might have happened, doesn't survive.
Basically, the plan would most likely have led to the expulsion/murder of enough "subhumans" to enable the creation of a permanent underclass to facilitate a plantation system, perhaps best comparable to pre-revolution Haiti, or the Antebellum South. While this system is economically laughable, it could last a long time, especially if adjustments are made to fit the new needs of the Nazi economy (and they would be made). As no plan survives contact with the enemy, so too would Generalplan Ost be modified in execution. It should also be noted that Generalplan Ost is not known in its entirety, and much of the documentation that would be extremely useful in figuring out exactly what might have happened, doesn't survive.
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[nitpick]Godwin's Law is that in every discussion at some point the nazi's are brought up, so bringing up the nazi's in a discussion is a confirmation of Godwin's Law, not a violation[/nitpick]
No, Nazi Germany was dependent on exploiting occupied territories. This could partially be addressed by greatly reducing the size of their military, but besides the internal political issues, even a negotiated peace with USSR/Western Allies will require large forces on guard. More likely would be a kind of cold war. Further by late-war, their economy was so entangled with exploring other countries I doubt it would survive separation. The Nazis had gotten out of the great depression by overspending, and then when the bills were due looting. Stepping back from that path would bring back economic hardship, which the Nazis would not be willing to do, obviously for ideological reasons, but also for political.
The German economy was driven by looting Western Europe, not Eastern. The Germans were taking roughly 35% of French GDP from 1941-42, which increased to roughly 50% in 1943 and 1944 preliberation. https://eml.berkeley.edu/~webfac/eichengreen/e211_fa05/white.pdf. https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/news/conferences/2006/06workshop/Occhino.pdf. The result is France's GDP is estimated to have dropped 10-20% per year during the occupation. Similar story in Belgium, Norway, etc. As for Eastern Europe, even if the Nazis for some reason did not formally implement Generalplan Ost, it would rapidly depopulate between the high death rate as forced labor, starvation, and anti-partisan measures. I did a rough estimate a few years ago, and by 1960 or so, Europe would be sucked dry. It would be a collapse similar in speed and severity to that of modern-day Venezuela (which has seen its GDP drop 80%!). There would be be insufficient loot to sustain the German economy and after being dependent on that for 20 years it would melt down. Loyalty to the Nazi regime will disintegrate with the economy. The USSR's economic model was far more sustainable than Nazi Germany's.
Now the consequences on world history and geopolitics of the global economy's heart annihilating itself would be interesting, but the Nazi's days were numbered. One effect will be that the US economy will be far more dominant than it was postwar even OTL. US might be outright majority of global GDP by 1960.
The German economy was driven by looting Western Europe, not Eastern. The Germans were taking roughly 35% of French GDP from 1941-42, which increased to roughly 50% in 1943 and 1944 preliberation. https://eml.berkeley.edu/~webfac/eichengreen/e211_fa05/white.pdf. https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/news/conferences/2006/06workshop/Occhino.pdf. The result is France's GDP is estimated to have dropped 10-20% per year during the occupation. Similar story in Belgium, Norway, etc. As for Eastern Europe, even if the Nazis for some reason did not formally implement Generalplan Ost, it would rapidly depopulate between the high death rate as forced labor, starvation, and anti-partisan measures. I did a rough estimate a few years ago, and by 1960 or so, Europe would be sucked dry. It would be a collapse similar in speed and severity to that of modern-day Venezuela (which has seen its GDP drop 80%!). There would be be insufficient loot to sustain the German economy and after being dependent on that for 20 years it would melt down. Loyalty to the Nazi regime will disintegrate with the economy. The USSR's economic model was far more sustainable than Nazi Germany's.
Now the consequences on world history and geopolitics of the global economy's heart annihilating itself would be interesting, but the Nazi's days were numbered. One effect will be that the US economy will be far more dominant than it was postwar even OTL. US might be outright majority of global GDP by 1960.
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I'm missing here the impact of that no matter what there will be permanent active resistance of the local population in the conquered areas. So these areas will never be peacefull. Think Algeria, South Africa. And if there's a cold war like situation, this resistance will have also foreign backing.
I'm really interested in what exactly this collapse would look like. By the time of the 70s or 80s, the Reich would be almost entirely ethnically German (following the extermination of Eastern Europeans), so it can't break into ethnic republics like the USSR. Nor can it collapse from public disillusionment with the system after they're made aware of its flaws by an increasingly free press. This would be the second or third generation born after the war, so they would be fanatically loyal to the regime and its ideology to a degree unseen anywhere in OTL, and the Reich is never going to loosen its censorship laws or ever stop trying to prove its own false outlook on reality. If anything they'll just tighten their grip and keep getting more fanatical. It's hard to imagine any part of the Reich's population at this time becoming disloyal to any significant degree.
Given its dependence on conquering and looting other countries, I would imagine they would keep looking for more targets. Maybe the rump USSR in Siberia gets invaded and annexed under the pretext of being behind on its reparation payments. Or the Balkan countries, simply because they're Slavic and the post-Hitler Nazi government is fanatical enough to decide that's reason enough to exterminate them. Or Italy; after Mussolini dies his successor might try to distance the country from Germany, seeing just how frightening they're becoming. Which Germany probably wouldn't take lightly, to say the least. Any of these actions could draw the ire of the Allies in what would be already be a much more intense Cold War than the OTL one. Either way though, I imagine Germany's eventual collapse would be the Endsieg they've anticipated since the start; that after they've sucked dry all their WW2-era enemies and gone after all the other Axis members and neutrals that they could get away with, they'll decide they have no choice but to attempt the final defeat of the Allies, to get the resources they need and ensure their supremacy. They would almost certainly fail at this, of course, but the Allies wouldn't necessarily win either. And that's what scares me the most about an Axis victory world. I don't really see any way that it doesn't end in an apocalyptic (or close to it) war.
Given its dependence on conquering and looting other countries, I would imagine they would keep looking for more targets. Maybe the rump USSR in Siberia gets invaded and annexed under the pretext of being behind on its reparation payments. Or the Balkan countries, simply because they're Slavic and the post-Hitler Nazi government is fanatical enough to decide that's reason enough to exterminate them. Or Italy; after Mussolini dies his successor might try to distance the country from Germany, seeing just how frightening they're becoming. Which Germany probably wouldn't take lightly, to say the least. Any of these actions could draw the ire of the Allies in what would be already be a much more intense Cold War than the OTL one. Either way though, I imagine Germany's eventual collapse would be the Endsieg they've anticipated since the start; that after they've sucked dry all their WW2-era enemies and gone after all the other Axis members and neutrals that they could get away with, they'll decide they have no choice but to attempt the final defeat of the Allies, to get the resources they need and ensure their supremacy. They would almost certainly fail at this, of course, but the Allies wouldn't necessarily win either. And that's what scares me the most about an Axis victory world. I don't really see any way that it doesn't end in an apocalyptic (or close to it) war.
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I imagine France will go the way it does in AANW, a puppet state with an increasingly bad case of Stockholm syndrome, to the point that they're surprisingly resistant to Allied attempts to keep resistance movements going within them or attempts to win over its government or population. Resistance in Eastern Europe and European Russia will likely die off at about the same time as the last of the non-German population there dies (though maybe people from the rump USSR would still manage to sneak across the border and cause trouble sometimes). If Vichy France still has Algeria, I would imagine they eventually deal with the local population in a Generalplan Ost-esque way. South Africa is an interesting question. If they do break away from the Commonwealth and turn towards the Axis, I would imagine they would try to encourage white immigration to bolster their numbers. Not sure if skin colour alone was enough to be considered white there, but maybe they become a refuge for Slavs and other minorities that manage to leave the Reich.
Nonsense. German physicists were studying uranium fission chain reactions during the war. Their calculations had indicated an atomic bomb would be too large for actual war use, but they thought it might be possible to build nuclear reactors which could power submarines. (Their guess about the size of a Bomb was not ridiculous; the famous Szilard-Wigner-Einstein letter to Roosevelt mentioned the possibility that the Bomb would be so large it could only be delivered by a ship.)
There’s a chance the Reich tries and invade the Middle East also.
When people say this they’re referring to the fact that a system that relies on expendable slave labor for decades (completely separate from the planned 14 million chattel slaves in the East) can’t last once the slave labor dies off as intended and that’s not factoring in the other issues the Nazi economy would have in a victory scenario. From the actual documents and Hitler, Himmler etc themselves the Slavs were to be used for any task deemed too menial or dirty for Germans with no regard for losses. Besides the work necessary to remake and colonize Eastern Europe (which was accounted for in the actual budget) this includes building Hitler’s architectural fantasies (of which there were many), mining, clearing debris from bombing, the Atlantic Wall, infrastructure, industry etc.
IOTL at its peak the Reich had nearly a million concentration camp inmates in almost 600 camps and almost 10 million slave/forced laborers spread across Europe performing a large variety of tasks ranging from the mundane (cleaning offices) to the deadly and exhausting (building rockets and quarrying stone). If they win the war and have an ocean of “subhumans” they intend to kill anyway this system would only expand in scope and scale as the prisoners are used as seen fit in the construction of the New Order for all time. As members of the “master race” Germans would have a very high quality of life at the expense of the rest of the continent but this can’t last forever. Imagine what would happen if spoiled children suddenly didn’t have maids, butlers, assistants, mechanics, chauffeurs etc to coddle them any more.
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Good point. Reminds me of the comment Spike made to (evil) Angel in Buffy "Killing all humans is nice and all, but who are we going to dominate after that? We villians never seem to consider that." (or something like that).