Was it ever possible for the Conservatives to win in '97?

Many predicted that Labour may scrape a win in 1992, but various circumstances meant this wasn't to be, and so the Tories secured a fourth consecutive term of office. The sense of victory didn't last long, however, as Black Wednesday and the ERM fiasco followed by Maastricht meant that by '93 Labour were always ahead in the polls from them on, and John Smith was a much more popular and trusted party leader than Neil Kinnock had ever been. After Smith's death in '94, Tony Blair became leader, Labour's polling increased further still, and most of the print media started turning away from the Tories and backed Blair.

Realistically, is there any way that the Tories - with or without Major - can salvage the situation after '92 and win a fifth election victory? What would need to have happened for this to be the case, without going too far off-kilter? Is there a point of no return in OTL in which a Labour win is simply inevitable due to the Tories having been in government for so long, and the desire for change so strong?
 
Is there a point of no return in OTL in which a Labour win is simply inevitable due to the Tories having been in government for so long, and the desire for change so strong?

This, and I'd say September 1992 was that point of no return.
 
Maybe a POD where Smith never takes over from Kinnock, but even then it will be hard to keep the Tories in power for that long.
 
Realistically, is there any way that the Tories - with or without Major - can salvage the situation after '92 and win a fifth election victory?

OTL's result was by no means inevitable. Extremely likely, yes - but there is a (narrow) window of opportunity for the Conservatives, with the right PODs, to secure a fifth successive term in office.

Black Wednesday was by far the most damaging event for the Major government. It tarnished the Tories' credibility on the economy to such an extent that, even with the booming economy and high consumer confidence, voters were unwilling to trust the Conservatives when 1997 rolled around. So any Tory victory in '97 scenario must avoid Black Wednesday. But even then, with the electorate willing to trust Major's government on the economy, the Conservatives still face issues. Namely - internal divisions over Europe, sleaze scandals and what appeared to be an energised Labour Party under Blair.

To resolve the first, the best solution is to remove Major at the 1995 leadership election. It is important to remember that, although he won decisively, the Prime Minister had set himself a private target of 215, which he only exceeded by three. So all that is needed is for Redwood to do slightly better and Major resigns. After that the contest would continue, with other Cabinet ministers throwing their hats into the ring. Of these, the two favourites would be Michael Heseltine and Michael Portillo, representing the left and right wings of the Conservatives respectively. Now, both arguably had the charisma to appeal to the electorate more than Major, yet Heseltine's Europhilia means that, if he secured the top job, infighting over Europe would be worse, not better. So, in this scenario, Portillo needs to win out.

Now, onto the second issue. This is quite simple - brush many of the scandals under the rug, and the Cabinet never come across as 'yesterday's men'. As for the third, the change needed here is for someone other than Blair to succeed Smith as Labour leader. This could come about through the Granita Pact being reversed, Blair agreeing to serve as Chancellor and Brown, as Leader of the Opposition, subsequently making the blunders he did a decade later as Prime Minister. Or, even better, have John Prescott (somehow) win the leadership in '94 and then a protester throws an egg at him.

Couple this with a major victory for the government (perhaps an earlier Good Friday Agreement - remember that nearly all the negotiations which led to it were undertaken by Major's government, so we just need a POD to speed them up) and England winning the Euros in 1996 (to create a feel-good factor - essentially a reverse 1970), and I'd say the stars would align for a fifth consecutive Conservative victory.
 
For all sorts of complex structural reasons the government was on the backfoot, and subsequently in a state of near-collapse from not quite but almost the point where it was re-elected in 1992. A fifth term is basically handwave territory, essentially. You need to make Major competent, the divisions over Europe go away, the ERM go away, Thatcher caballing against Major go away, sleaze go away, arms to Iraq go away, divisions in Cabinet go away, and probably even more stuff that I'm forgetting. Oh and you also need to make Labour go back to the early eighties on a silver penny. Basically - it's not happening.
 
You need to make Major competent

That seems a bit harsh on him to me - from what I recall of the time (as a young kid/teenager just starting to take any kind of interest in politics and current affairs) everything that could go wrong for him basically did. He was surrounded by MPs who were absolutely determined to get caught shagging an intern/small time actress/underage rent boy, MPs spending all their free time either bribing or taking bribes from Arabs, MPs determined to broadcast their friendships with deeply dodgy businessmen, MPs being convicted of perjury and MPs who were just useless.

I honestly don't think Thatcher at her peak or 1940 Churchill could have won the 1997 election. The Tories had been in too long, lost too many people's trust and didn't have enough attractive young MPs to compete with Labour's new look. The only way to win it for the Tories is for Kinnock to get his expected win in 1992 and make a total bollocks of it while the Tories sort themselves out, for Labour to make the totally wrong choice of leader when Smith dies or for Blair to be exposed for some form of unsavoury barnyard or nursery school based activity on the night before the election (and even that might not have been enough). Basically it's Labour's to lose and by 1997 they'd finally learned how to not lose elections.
 
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