Was it ever possible for RFK to win the nomination in 1968?

Bomster

Banned
If Robert Kennedy had survived his assassination attempt on June 5th 1968, could he have had kept the momentum going to secure the nomination? I’ve heard a lot of people say that it is improbable and that the nomination would have most likely gone to the uninspiring but safe Hubert Humphrey. However, is it also possible that a surviving RFK has the popularity to win over delegates at the convention, especially if McCarthy eventually drops out of the race?







(Ok I understand that I’ve been asking a bit too many RFK-related questions lately but bear with me I’m researching)
 
Possible? Certainly possible. He had Daily in his camp, who was running the thing. Perhaps if he gets McCarthy to drop out early enough and have McCarthy support RFK. It was always going to be an uphill battle, but I don't think it's completely impossible. Especially if he survives an assassination attempt. Then perhaps he's viewed with even more sympathy.
 
I think it would be possible if he'd jumped on the opportunity when it was initially offered to him, but with a PoD post-assination it's a massive hill to climb. He's facing down an establishment that doesn't want him, and his presence is actively splitting the opposition vote.

Adding further, McCarthy isn't likely to just drop out. He views Kennedy as an opportunist. Someone who has joined the anti-establishment 'Dump Johnson' crowd for his own benefit, as opposed to any belief in the cause.

And McCarthy, right or wrong, is an inordinately obstinate man.
 
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Possible? Certainly possible. He had Daily in his camp, who was running the thing.

Once again, the notion that Daley was about to throw his support to RFK is unproven, and even if he had, that would by no means a guarantee an RFK nomination. https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ted-rfk-if-he-had-lived.443752/#post-17022521

That being said, RFK's nomination was certainly a possibility. It was just, IMO, never a probability. A lot of people seem to assume he was wildly popular, which as I note in that same thread, does not seem to be supported by the polling evidence:

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FWIW, polls before RFK's assassination did not show him to be a particularly strong candidate.

"In a nationwide Gallup poll the week before Kennedy’s assassination, Vice President Hubert Humphrey narrowly led Kennedy, 34% to 28%, with Sen. Eugene McCarthy receiving 26%. Among Democrats, the split was mostly between Humphrey (40%) and Kennedy (37%) with McCarthy further behind at 16%.

"Much of Kennedy’s support came from younger people. In the three-way race for the Democratic nomination, Kennedy had the backing of 37% of those under 30, compared to 26% of those older than 30.

"That same poll showed a dead heat in a hypothetical general election matchup between Kennedy and former Vice President Richard Nixon, with Nixon at 37%, Kennedy at 35% and third-party candidate George Wallace at 17%. Adults younger than 30 would have picked Kennedy over Nixon, 44% to 33%."

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/06/05/polling-flashback-remembering-rfk/

RFK's position in the polls could of course have improved after his California primary victory, but as things stand there is actually little evidence to support the widely held idea that he would have been a much stronger candidate against Nixon than Humphrey was. (Also remember that his strongest age group--voters under thirty--was historically the least likely to actually vote...)
 
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