Was Franco's victory Stalin's fault

Blair, don't forget that Yugoslavia wasn't supposed to be invaded; the Germans actually wanted it to join the Pact of Steel, so it would continue to supply raw materials. Similarly, Sweden, which had a Social Democrat government, was never invaded.

So depending on how things play out, I could see Spain staying neutral.
That's an interesting angle. So long as Spain trades tungsten like Sweden did iron, the threat of cutting off that supply through a botched/delayed invasion would be a serious consideration for the Germans, given that it's the only source available to them and is critical for the war industry.
 
Having just got back from a whistle stop tour of bits of the Basque country, Navarre, Catalonia and Aragon, I quite agree that the approaches to Bilbao anyway would seem perfect for defensive forces. Catalonia possibly not so much
 
So the invasion of Spain could only happen if they are willing to delay Barbarossa, meaning they would start knowing they wouldn't reach Moscow till 1942 at least, and would have to fight General Winter before the war against the USSR was over. An invasion of Spain after Barbarossa would be... too stupid for words (well, i think :D).

The biggest reason the Germans would have to invade a republican Spain would be to deny the allies a western front. Nevertheless, the Pyrenees can do that pretty effectively as well: it works both ways. Why invade Spain to avoid being invaded from there, when you can set up a defensive barrier that can be easily made impenetrable with a small fraction of the cost?

*I think this is important because it's the only reason that would push them to make a hilarious decision early on.

Not to mention Hitler would now have LESS troops for the Eastern Front because he has to use them to invade Spain and hold down a peninsula which, assuming the Republic wins, will have PLENTY of individuals with experience in guerrilla warfare thanks to their recent victory in the Spanish Civil War. This plus the ease the Allies and resistance forces will have in disrupting supply lines through the Med (British naval superiority), the Pyrenees (easier to block and sabotage), and the limited port facilities in northern Spain will turn the Iberian peninsula into one giant, bleeding sore for the Axis.

Actually that might see things turn out BETTER for the Allies. More troops stuck in Spain means less for every other theater which will make the invasion of Italy and the Soviet counter-offensives likely to see better results sooner. Hitler invading Spain would probably lead to his downfall by 1944 instead of 1945.
 
If Republican Spain survives, the quick Nazi victory over France might be butterflied away for a host of reasons. There's a Spanish Civil War TL on this board somewhere that depicts Spanish Republican troops as part of a broader anti-Hitler alliance holding the line at the Ardennes just long enough to stop the "sickle cut" and that's only one possible outcome.

This argument is just as much an offense against the butterfly effect as the argument that has also been made on this board that Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan as a result of mujahadeen activities automatically means Taliban and 9/11, no ifs, ands, or buts.
 
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