Was Détente Destined to Fail?

Détente was the period during the Cold War between the early 70s and 1980 where there was a serious attempt at coexistence between the Soviet world and the United States and its allies, where tensions would be ended and the nuclear stockpiles cut down (in the SALT talks). Détente ended with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Olympic boycotts, Carter increasing defense spending in reaction to that, and the election of the extremely anti-Communist, anti-Soviet Ronald Reagan. Ironically, it would be that anti-Communist, anti-Soviet President who ushered in something of a second Détente until the Soviet Union collapsed shortly thereafter.

The ideological explanation of this is that détente was never actually possible. Although both could try to coexist, and could manage that for a limited time, they could not permanently because each system called for expansion at the expense of the other. I have heard one of the more interesting analogies being of two swelling toads in a confined space; one would either overwhelm the other or they would both explode.

So I was curious on your opinions, was détente during the Cold War destined to failure or was it something that could have continued? And if it was destined to failure, how long could it last?
 
On the Communist side of things, perhaps Alexei Kosygin can become the Soviet General Secretary in the late '60s, if there's a successful assassination attempt against Brezhnev[1]. Kosygin was against the crushing of the Prague Spring, and advocated further reforms to the Soviet economy that put more emphasis on the production of consumer goods. I'd imagine that under his leadership, the USSR might potentially avoid or better weather the economic stagnation which characterized Brezhnev's latter years, as well as back away from the Afghan quagmire.

[1] On January 22nd, 1969, a Soviet Army deserter named Viktor Ilyin attempted to assassinate Brezhnev at a welcome-back ceremony for a crew of cosmonauts.
 
I dont see Detente as a true failure. The Incidents at Sea agreement continued in effect, there are other examples of Carter era agreements survivng in one or another form. There were factions on both sides that had little interest in Detante. I expect either a Carter or Ford administration from 1980 would have continued adapting ways to make it work, assuming of course pro Detante leaders held power in the USSR as well into the 1980s.
 
Well theres the issue about whether the Soviet Union was destined to fall, and whether a collapse of the Soviet Union counts as a failure of Detente.

In the immediate term though, Afghanistan. In terms of Detente i look at it from two angles on why it was the end of Detente. Did the Soviets think invading Afghanistan would be a violation of Detente and provoke an American response? Probably not. Afghanistan shared a direct land border with the Soviet Union, was presumably seen as in the Soviet sphere, nominally had a communist government, and already had Soviet troops running around before the coup.

On the American side of the coin, was retaliating in Afghanistan a violation of Detente? Probably. Did America need to intervene? Probably not.

But still solving the Afghanistan problem still doesnt answer the question, even if it prolongs the life of Detente.

But on the other hand, what lasts forever? Short term success, is still success to a degree. Detente until the end of the Soviet Union more so.

Okay sorry im dodging the question. In all honesty i really have no idea. :eek:
 

Archibald

Banned
Eliminate Team B and it could continue.

Thanks for that. Went digging, learned a lot. That team B looks like the kind of dirty trick Rumsfeld could have done in Drew time line.

Conservatives challenging the CIA because the latter doesn't make the commies look menacing enough. :eek:

In some way it was a stroke of genius: if detente makes the soviet ennemy softer, then the defense budget will be cut. We need more menacing commies, but the CIA (in fact the real world !) refuse to cooperate. The answer: let's say the CIA are idiots and produce our own analysis - flawed enough to prove the commies are actually menacing.
 
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