All,
Was it possible to avoid the German invasion of USSR?
It is not a matter of making massive changes in the likes of Stalin dying, Hitler dying or anything massive.
A few pointers:
· It is correct that Mein Kampf described the need for lebensraum and that could only be on the cost of USSR
· It is correct that Hitler saw USSR as the ultimate enemy
Here we have a bit of speculative things:
· The performance of Red Army in Finland was not impressive and might have convinced Hitler (and generals) that USSR could be defeated
· The purges had decimated the professional part of the red Army and new cadres were not there yet
· The equipment (in general) of Red Army was a bit obsolete compared to newer technologies
· Hitler did not believe in the numbers Guderian presented
Let us try to look at what Glantz is saying in his ‘Barbarossa’ about Stalin:
“June 1941 is often cited as a classic example of a leader ignoring evidence of an opponent’s capability to attack because he doubted the intention to attack.
Let us look at twisting a few things:
Hitler starts to believe in Guederian’s numbers. These are impressive and Hitler later claimed that if he had believed in the numbers, he might never have started the invasion. Is this compelling evidence or is it just a blame-game?
Finland: If Germany (Hitler and generals) had looked beyond the Finnish conflict and started to look at the immediate actions to remedy the glaring mistakes, could it have tempered the appetite for Barbarossa?
Japan-USSR: If Zhukov had been ‘tagged’ as an efficient commander? If the USSR offensive capabilities had been recognised?
Reserves and mobilisation: If the generals had realised the potential of raising new armies in USSR?
Could Stalin have delayed Barbarossa in any way? Trade deals? Poland? Baltic concessions? Anything at all?
Could any of these things have made Hitler think twice on this issue?
… or was it all set in stone (and in the stars) and nothing could have prevented it?
Let it be said: 1941 was probably the only time it could have had a chance of success. 1942 would be shaky.