Was Anti-Morale Bombing Actually Effective?

Shut down is shut down.

Sure.
Likewise, an aircraft that is in a hundred pieces over a few square kilometers of countryside and another that is under maintenance in a hangar are both "grounded".

...before the RAF could add more.

Exactly. That's the point that many planners at the time missed. Air bombing campaigns, with no actual, physical, land-wise conquest of the objective, can keep something non-operational - if the bombers keep returning. Hitting the same target again and again. It's incredible how the Luftwaffe planners, for instance, really believed at the beginning of the Battle of Britain that once their forces had hit an air base once or twice, they would be done with it. Many other operations were launched under the same wrong assumption.

OTOH once the Soviets were in Ploesti, the burden of returning was switched to the enemy.
 

Deleted member 1487

Exactly. That's the point that many planners at the time missed. Air bombing campaigns, with no actual, physical, land-wise conquest of the objective, can keep something non-operational - if the bombers keep returning. Hitting the same target again and again. It's incredible how the Luftwaffe planners, for instance, really believed at the beginning of the Battle of Britain that once their forces had hit an air base once or twice, they would be done with it. Many other operations were launched under the same wrong assumption.

OTOH once the Soviets were in Ploesti, the burden of returning was switched to the enemy.
In 1944 they kept returning. The oil shut off before the Soviets even got to Romania, it never came back on and there is no reason to think that if Romania hadn't fallen until 1945 that the bombers would have stopped mining.
 

Deleted member 1487

Sadly, that was quite accurate. Long before Germany surrendered it was hopeless. By mid '44 at the latest it was only a matter of time.
Read this book, largely it was fear of what the Allies would do coupled with the fanatics with guns in charge that were getting very desperate and violent with the public that kept the war going:
https://www.amazon.com/End-Defiance-Destruction-Hitlers-1944-1945/dp/0143122134

This was a rather surprising note:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End:_Hitler's_Germany_1944–45
An estimated 49 percent of German military losses occurred during the last 10 months of the war in Europe, and Kershaw discusses that if the assassination attempt had not failed how many lives might have been spared in both civilian and military casualties.[3]
 
In 1944 they kept returning. The oil shut off before the Soviets even got to Romania, it never came back on and there is no reason to think that if Romania hadn't fallen until 1945 that the bombers would have stopped mining.

Full shut off never happened. Shipments were able to continue all the way into August. What did change was the quantity that got through as the shipments got more and more intermittent. From everything I've read, it was July by the time overall supply was driven below overall demand and the Germans had to start burning through stockpiled oil, although some specific sectors (like aviation fuel) collapsed earlier.
 

Deleted member 1487

Full shut off never happened. Shipments were able to continue all the way into August. What did change was the quantity that got through as the shipments got more and more intermittent. From everything I've read, it was July by the time overall supply was driven below overall demand and the Germans had to start burning through stockpiled oil, although some specific sectors (like aviation fuel) collapsed earlier.
Did I say oil was 100% cut off? I did say there was flow around, but massively less so that by the time August came around Germany was already experiencing massive oil shortages.
Again though Romania was supplying far less oil than Germany was producing via synthetic production, the smashing of which starting in May was causing the majority of problems. I'm not saying the Soviet capturing of Romanian oil didn't help, but oil shortages in Germany were already severe by the time Romania switched sides. As of July when Bagration started, most of the Luftwaffe supporting AG-Center was grounded due to lack of fuel.
 
In reality the RAF did most of the damage to German industry, especially the oil industry and the transportation system. Bomber Command dropped nearly as many tons of bombs on oil refineries as the 8th and 15th Air Forces combined, and their bombing was far more accurate. The USSBS found the following figures for attacks on three large oil plants:

8th AF visual aiming 26.8%
8th AF, part visual aiming and part instrument 12.4%
8th AF, full instrument 5.4%
RAF, night Pathfinder technique 15.8%
Weighted average 12.6%

Note that these figures are for bombs within the boundaries of the installations. Many Americans will point to the figure for visual aiming and go "See, that's a lot better than the RAF" but this is comparing a few of the very best USAAF attacks with the overall average for the RAF. Given that these visual raids were only a small percentage of the total number of attacks - let's say 5% for the sake of argument - I'd be very interested to see the figures for the top 5% of RAF raids. I'd imagine that the percentage of bombs hitting the plants would be at least comparable to the best American figures.

As already mentioned, the heavier RAF bombs were far more destructive than an equivalent weight of lighter bombs: when it came to hitting the target, one 4000-pounder was more destructive than 4 x 1000-pounders or 8 x 500-pounders. Of course, the greater accuracy and heavier bombs were opposite sides of the same coin: the more likely you are to hit, the heavier bombs you should use. For any given standard of accuracy there will be an optimum bomb-size: using bombs that are too big means fewer carried and less chance of a hit; using bombs that are too small gives more chance of hits but those hits will do much less damage. This is why the RAF used so many Blockbusters instead of the smaller bombs carried by the B17's and B24's. Of course the USAAF aircraft couldn't carry such large bombs as the Lancasters and Halifaxes, but had they been as accurate as the RAF they'd have been better-off with 2 x 2000 pounders.

The other approach used to deny the validity of the USSBS figures is to claim that they are atypical: this is clearly correct, but not in the way the critics mean. The USSBS was not just an impartial look at the course of the strategic bomber offensive; it was intended to justify the retention of heavy bombers by the USAAF/USAF, so it would be strange if they decided to choose a series of raids that made the 8th Air Force appear relatively ineffective. It's more likely that they chose an example that made the 8th look as good as possible, and that had they chosen different raids the RAF would have come out even further ahead. Note that the USAAF actually became less accurate through 1944 and into 1945 because they began to fly higher and higher to avoid flak.

Lastly, Richard G Davis, an official USAF historian has stated:

The evidence indicates that Bomber Command, on the whole, delivered more of its bombs closer to its aiming points than the USSTAF.
 
Is there a good book that anyone can recommend on the bombing campaign? It's obvious that the concept of American precision bombing of critical targets vs. British flailing about in the dark is an old myth, but even in this thread we have opposite opinions on the relative value of the British and American strategies!
 
Is there a good book that anyone can recommend on the bombing campaign? It's obvious that the concept of American precision bombing of critical targets vs. British flailing about in the dark is an old myth, but even in this thread we have opposite opinions on the relative value of the British and American strategies!

See Post 28:)
 
The RAF's area bombing had a military effect, though whether it was cost-effective is more questionable.

Albert Speer, pointed out after the war that the thousands of AA guns and night-fighters and hundreds of thousands of troops forced to defend German airspace could instead have been deployed on the front if it wasn’t for the RAF bombing. Also around a third of German artillery production was devoted to AA.

Imagine a German Army approaching Moscow with a third more artillery, thousands more aircraft and another hundred thousand troops.

There's also the fact that there wasn't much else Britain could do in 1941/42 to directly attack Germany. Day bombing was too costly in bomber losses (and proved to be for the USAAF too - see Second Raid on Schweinfurt - until 1944 and the introduction of the Mustang) and night bombing was too inaccurate to hit anything except cities.
Daylight Boming is more dangerous with higher losses how did the u.s. Air Force end up doing the daylight bombing and the British doing the night bombing?
 
Daylight Boming is more dangerous with higher losses how did the u.s. Air Force end up doing the daylight bombing and the British doing the night bombing?

BC tried day bombing, and got slaughtered in unescorted raids, and switched to night raids.

US came in later with Bomber with more defensive armament and the Norden Bombsight, that the USAAF thought was best in the world.
They didn't get slaughtered quite as badly, and stuck with the 'precision' bombing
 
BC tried day bombing, and got slaughtered in unescorted raids, and switched to night raids.

US came in later with Bomber with more defensive armament and the Norden Bombsight, that the USAAF thought was best in the world.
They didn't get slaughtered quite as badly, and stuck with the 'precision' bombing

The key word here is "unescorted".

The USAAF did get slaughtered in daylight raids as badly as Bomber Command in 1939, notwithstading the "flying fortress" idea of a bomber so well armed that it would be able to defend itself - if those daylight raids were unescorted.
The USAAF interrupted deep raids into German airspace in late 1943, after the catastrophic second raid on Schweinfurt. A previous raid on Schweinfrut and Regensburg, and the Tidal Wave one, had taught the same lesson.
In other words the US heavy bombers were, at this time, totally useless for strategic bombing. They were an astronomically costly failure. They were untrained to operate at night, and they were unable to survive in daylight.

That is, if unescorted. The change was not in bomber doctrine or equipment. The change was the Mustang with the (British) Rolls-Royce Merlin engine, the long-ranged escort fighter that made strategic bombing missions in daylight survivable.

Actually the best thing of the daylight bombing campaign by the USAAF probably wasn't the bombing at all. It was that the USAAF, by an application of sheer numbers of fighters and fuel, broke the back of the German fighter force right there on their home field, the skies of Germany. That made 1944-45 a time of no air cover for the German ground troops both in the East and the West.
 
In 1939, the scale of the BC raids was fall smaller, but percentage wise far worse for losses in some raids, like 10 of 22 Wellingtons being shot down to Wilhelmshaven. 8thAF never got hammered so badly on coastal targets like that.
Overall, Bomber Command had an attrition rate around 20% (31 lost of 173 planes)

Now a few years later, 376 B-17s bombed Schweinfurt for the loss of 60. 8thAF had around 17% average attrition rate in all of 1943, in far deeper raids and did far more destruction to both ground targets, and to the Luftwaffe.
 
In 1939, the scale of the BC raids was fall smaller, but percentage wise far worse for losses in some raids, like 10 of 22 Wellingtons being shot down to Wilhelmshaven. 8thAF never got hammered so badly on coastal targets like that.
Overall, Bomber Command had an attrition rate around 20% (31 lost of 173 planes)

Now a few years later, 376 B-17s bombed Schweinfurt for the loss of 60. 8thAF had around 17% average attrition rate in all of 1943, in far deeper raids and did far more destruction to both ground targets, and to the Luftwaffe.

The issue is not that the British targets were coastal, of course. It was that both over the coastal targets in 1939, and over the in-depth targets in 1943, the bombers were there unescorted. The USAAF was not slaughtered over coastal targets because coastal targets were within fighter escort range. The US bombers were slaughtered when they were unescorted in daylight - that's the similarity with the British raids of 1939.

Yes, the USAAF caused more damage to their targets than Bomber Command. That is a function of the total payload, more than anything else. Secondly, it's a function of the target size (the British were trying to hit thin ships, the US crews were happy if they dropped a bomb within the fences of large industrial plants). And it is not exactly a meaningful thing; if the US bombers could, theoretically, cause more damage than the British ones had done in 1939, but the fact is that after a few attempts they are, practically, not sent out to cause that damage, what good is the theoretical possibility?

Note that if we want to throw in the effects of the bombings, then we should not forget what were the objectives of the Ploesti and Schweinfurt raids. The US planners were operating under the wrong assumption that they could destroy "bottleneck" parts of the German war industries, thus achieving a KO outcome with just a few and targeted raids. It was ball bearings at Schweinfurt and oil at Ploesti. Under the respect of achieving the stated objective, the missions were total failures. They achieved widespread damage that the germans had to repair, caused temporary reductions in the outputs, and forced the Germans to redeploy further defenses, and to decentralize production; all useful results - in a holistic conception of the air offensive as a whole. But a complete shutdown, which is what was planned, was not achieved.

As to the losses and percentages, yes, the first raid on Schweinfurt and Regensburg, the one with 376 bombers, lost 60 bombers downed there and then. But the losses were higher if you consider scrapped bombers that made it home and were deemed too damaged to be repaired, and those heavily damaged ones that were simply abandoned in Algeria.
Tidal Wave had a loss rate of 30%, but that was an exceptional and admittedly very risky mission.
Then you have the second raid on Schweinfurt, were the losses amounted to 26% counting, again, the scrapped bombers.
While on the worst British mission of 1939 the loss rate was even higher (45%), functionally the outcome was identical. In fact, the British stopped sending out such missions (and geared up for night bombing); the USAAF also stopped sending out such missions. One could claim the USAAF was not slaughtered exactly as heavily as Bomber Command, from the POV of sheer mathematics; but it was just as heavily, identically slaughtered if we look at the reaction to the slaughter, withdrawing from those battles. That is because, in both cases, the casualties were unsustainable.
 
Some what counter productive, it really pissed a lot of people off.
Germany having its transpiration Network shot apart by marauding fighters probably had a more direct effect on civilian morale. Not being able to get daily necessities do to the luftwaffe failure to stop Allied air attacks directly affected civilian's lives.
 
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Some what counter productive, it really pissed a lot of people off.
Germany having its transpiration Network shot apart by marauding fighters probably had a more direct effect on civilian morale. Not being able to get daily necessities do to the luftwaffe failure to stop Allied air attacks directly affected civilian's lives.

The transportation network was disrupted by all types of Allied aircraft. Both the British heavy bombers at night and the US bombers in daylight cratered marshalling yards and stations, which actually had the most important effect on deliveries of everything. Medium and attack bombers hit bridges, tunnels, and other infrastructure such as maintenance buildings, traffic management posts, shunting areas and turntables, watering and coaling stations etc. And yes, fighter-bombers hit the locomotives and rolling stock.

In addition, as already mentioned, the reason why the medium bombers' and fighter-bombers' job was easier was that the Germans had lost the fighters-vs-fighters battle to the US escort fighters that came with the heavy bombers.
 
The point I think that's glossed over a little is that untill Big Week (which was as late as January 1944) the Germans were winning the air war.

Whether the bomber loss rate was 15% or 30% isn't that important - even losing 15% of your force every mission is not survivable for very long (five raids and half your bomber force is gone).

At the same time, both 'dehousing' and the ball bearing raids were ineffective in what they aimed to do - cause a strategically noticable drop in German war material production.

When you carry out a strategy that is costly and inefective you're in danger of doing more harm than good to your cause.

As I was saying earlier, until early 1944 (The Battle of Berlin - generally regarded as a failure - only ended in March 1944) the strategic bomber forces only strategically effective contribution was to act as a Fleet in Being. Forcing Germany to deploy huge numbers of men, artillery and fighters to defend the homeland meant they were not available at the front - where the war was actually being won. However, as the Allies had overwhelming resource superiority they could afford to build this incredibly expensive 'fleet in being'. So, although it was likely cost-ineffective and didn't remotely acheive the overblown aims it set out to acheive (winning the war on its own) strategic bombing did have a strategic effect.

There's also the fact that there was little alternative given a) they didn't have hindsight, and b) they had to do something to help the Soviets and a 'second front' was out of the question.
 
The point I think that's glossed over a little is that untill Big Week (which was as late as January 1944) the Germans were winning the air war.

At the same time, both 'dehousing' and the ball bearing raids were ineffective in what they aimed to do - cause a strategically noticable drop in German war material production.

When you carry out a strategy that is costly and inefective you're in danger of doing more harm than good to your cause.

As I was saying earlier, until early 1944 (The Battle of Berlin - generally regarded as a failure - only ended in March 1944) the strategic bomber forces only strategically effective contribution was to act as a Fleet in Being.

I don't think this is quite right. While certainly the intention of the bombing campaign was to reduce German warmaking capability, we shouldn't quantify its effectiveness by looking at whether production rose or fell. We need to be aware that German industry was expanding hugely, and that means that success is measured not by changes in absolute production, but by a comparison between production expected without bombing and the actual production.

On this basis, my understanding is that the Ruhr campaign was effective and successful, whereas Berlin wasn't.
 
I don't think this is quite right. While certainly the intention of the bombing campaign was to reduce German warmaking capability, we shouldn't quantify its effectiveness by looking at whether production rose or fell. We need to be aware that German industry was expanding hugely, and that means that success is measured not by changes in absolute production, but by a comparison between production expected without bombing and the actual production.

On this basis, my understanding is that the Ruhr campaign was effective and successful, whereas Berlin wasn't.

There was also the aspect of the resources Germany had to divert to the protection of domestic air space that could otherwise have been devoted elsewhere. I'm not an expert to know how significant or otherwise this was.
 
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