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In a recent thread in which I asked about a 1968 ceasefire to end the Vietnam War, two contributors made these comments.


The problem is that the peace talks were never actual peace talks. They were all delays for the US to keep face for when the time came to withdraw. The North Vietnamese were never going to hold to it, not matter what it was going to say. All they wanted was the US out of it. The South Vietnamese could never keep them at bay on their own. The South Vietnamese would not recognize the VC(Vietcong) as an official party for the peacetalks, as they had infiltrated South Vietnam everywhere and basically saw themselves as the occupying force and in control of the South. These peace talks being finalized so early on only strengthens the VC and NVA in South Vietnam. Any concessions made would just ease tension off the North. They had expected the Tet offensive to break the south and end the war, since that didn't happen they just planned on more infiltration and build up of forces in the north to begin a real offensive as soon as possible, all that had to happen was the US to withdraw.


When I proposed a Korean War-style armistice:

That will NOT be able to fly.

The whole cause of Vietnam War is to see if it's "two Vietnam's" (USA point of view) or "one Vietnam" (Vietnamese point of view). RVN may be able to pull that off (asking for more money from USA to appease the populace, or at least the elite ones) - though it is still risky. DRVN will never, ever, do that, because it would go against their very declaration of independence, sworn during the 30s and 40s. The only type of "Korean War-style armistice" that is acceptable would be an armistice followed by a General Election.

You know, the one in Geneva Accord in 1954 but the US refused to hold it because they knew the Viet Minh (and by extension, the communist party) would win with a landslide?

Aside from that, the North Vietnamese were recieving a almost endless stream of support, save for manpower, from China (later the Soviet Union for fears about Chinese influence) and the South Vietnamese government was effectively a unstable puppet of the United States, unable to protect it's cities, as the Tet Offensive showed. Also, the presence of China effectively prevented the US from directly invading the North with ground troops. In North Vietnam, the people were behind their supposed war against Western colonialism. While in the US, the people were slowly getting sick of the war, so the US was losing the propaganda battle on the home-front.

Anyway, since the only way to get a ceasefire was to hold a referendum on unification (which was NOT going to happen since North Vietnam had a higher population than the South), the North Vietnamese government was more stable and was being supported by China and the Soviet Union and the North Vietnamese had more home-front support, was a North Vietnamese victory in the Vietnam War inevitable?
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