Was a large-scale conversion of Central Asians to Christianity after 1850 possible?

CaliGuy

Banned
Resistance under Japanese rule was of Chhttp://www.ecmicaucasus.org/upload/publications/working_paper_57_en.pdfristian nature(as well)

This is mainly because Buddhism was associated with the colonizers, and Christianity was associated with independence. I don't see how you can have that same scenario happen with Central Asia, except with either a crazy Persiawank or a crazy Mughalwank.

OK. However, please keep in mind that Central Asia was mostly illiterate in 1900; indeed, Russia could have used the introduction of mass literacy as a way of making Central Asians feel that they are a part of a Greater Russian nation. Then, Russia could have gradually emphasized the importance of the Orthodox Church in Russia and perhaps gradually obtained some converts from the Central Asians.

Also, as a side note, it is worth noting that a large-scale conversion from Islam to Christianity occurred in the Georgian region of Adjara after the end of the Cold War:

http://www.ecmicaucasus.org/upload/publications/working_paper_57_en.pdf
 
Russia could have used the introduction of mass literacy as a way of making Central Asians feel that they are a part of a Greater Russian nation.

Colonial powers are uninterested in educating colonial subjects, because then it makes those subjects get uppity and have ideas of independence and self-determination, and colonizers generally don't like that. I also doubt that Russia can try to Russify Central Asia without a massive backlash.
 
The most likely religious transformation of Central Asia would be based on the Czar settling large number of Russians in the area, and conversion being based on the local assimilating into Russian culture.

At the same time we could likely see a lot of the local Turks adopt the Russian language, while keeping Islam. So I find a Central Asia populated by Russian Muslims far more likely than a Central Asia populated by Turkish Christians.
 
OK. However, please keep in mind that Central Asia was mostly illiterate in 1900; indeed, Russia could have used the introduction of mass literacy as a way of making Central Asians feel that they are a part of a Greater Russian nation. Then, Russia could have gradually emphasized the importance of the Orthodox Church in Russia and perhaps gradually obtained some converts from the Central Asians.

Also, as a side note, it is worth noting that a large-scale conversion from Islam to Christianity occurred in the Georgian region of Adjara after the end of the Cold War:

http://www.ecmicaucasus.org/upload/publications/working_paper_57_en.pdf
But if you frame it as nationalistic issue, as a sort of "Eurasian nationalism", you can't have it also religious. Or at least it wouldn't be as effective.

Colonial powers are uninterested in educating colonial subjects, because then it makes those subjects get uppity and have ideas of independence and self-determination, and colonizers generally don't like that. I also doubt that Russia can try to Russify Central Asia without a massive backlash.
Yeah it would be like:

"Yeah, I know we guys fought for centuries in border wars and raids, but now we are totally cool with you and totally need you to accept our religions despite you having had your own religion for almost a millennia by now."

I'd argue that while you can easily have a Russian Christian majority north of the Aral sea, you would need for the rest of Central Asia serious effort(like in Circassia) on the part of the Russia to force the population to convert, assimilate or to be ethnically cleansed.

The most likely religious transformation of Central Asia would be based on the Czar settling large number of Russians in the area, and conversion being based on the local assimilating into Russian culture.

At the same time we could likely see a lot of the local Turks adopt the Russian language, while keeping Islam. So I find a Central Asia populated by Russian Muslims far more likely than a Central Asia populated by Turkish Christians.
That's the situation with Tatar Muslims speaking Russian.
 
OK. However, please keep in mind that Central Asia was mostly illiterate in 1900; indeed, Russia could have used the introduction of mass literacy as a way of making Central Asians feel that they are a part of a Greater Russian nation. Then, Russia could have gradually emphasized the importance of the Orthodox Church in Russia and perhaps gradually obtained some converts from the Central Asians.

Also, as a side note, it is worth noting that a large-scale conversion from Islam to Christianity occurred in the Georgian region of Adjara after the end of the Cold War:

http://www.ecmicaucasus.org/upload/publications/working_paper_57_en.pdf

Pretty different situation. It's based on a post-Soviet Georgian national re-awakeníng. The Georgian Church are deeply connected to the Georgian identity and the Georgian have been very careful at not alienate the Adjarans to avoid a new splinter region. This have given the Adjarans a strong Georgian identity, which have made them identifying with their ancestors Church. There's not a similar way to convert Central Asia.
 
Yeah it would be like:

"Yeah, I know we guys fought for centuries in border wars and raids, but now we are totally cool with you and totally need you to accept our religions despite you having had your own religion for almost a millennia by now."

Especially since Central Asian Islam is quite strong, with a firm literary religion and quite a few notable philosophers.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Colonial powers are uninterested in educating colonial subjects, because then it makes those subjects get uppity and have ideas of independence and self-determination, and colonizers generally don't like that. I also doubt that Russia can try to Russify Central Asia without a massive backlash.
Technically speaking, though, Central Asia was a part of Russia rather than a colony.

The most likely religious transformation of Central Asia would be based on the Czar settling large number of Russians in the area, and conversion being based on the local assimilating into Russian culture.

At the same time we could likely see a lot of the local Turks adopt the Russian language, while keeping Islam. So I find a Central Asia populated by Russian Muslims far more likely than a Central Asia populated by Turkish Christians.

Makes sense. However, could we see large numbers of Central Asians intermarrying with ethnic Russians and then having their children adopt Christianity?

Pretty different situation. It's based on a post-Soviet Georgian national re-awakeníng. The Georgian Church are deeply connected to the Georgian identity and the Georgian have been very careful at not alienate the Adjarans to avoid a new splinter region. This have given the Adjarans a strong Georgian identity, which have made them identifying with their ancestors Church. There's not a similar way to convert Central Asia.

Makes sense.

But if you frame it as nationalistic issue, as a sort of "Eurasian nationalism", you can't have it also religious. Or at least it wouldn't be as effective.

OK.

I'd argue that while you can easily have a Russian Christian majority north of the Aral sea,

Through migration?

you would need for the rest of Central Asia serious effort(like in Circassia) on the part of the Russia to force the population to convert, assimilate or to be ethnically cleansed.

That's the situation with Tatar Muslims speaking Russian.

So, Tatar Muslims have engaged in large-scale assimilation over the centuries?
 
Makes sense. However, could we see large numbers of Central Asians intermarrying with ethnic Russians and then having their children adopt Christianity?

It's quite likely, but it would be Russian men marrying Turkish women and the children would be Russians. It was pretty much the model Christian control over Muslim areas build on up to the 20th century.
 
It's quite likely, but it would be Russian men marrying Turkish women and the children would be Russians. It was pretty much the model Christian control over Muslim areas build on up to the 20th century.
Intermarrying or similar policies could maybe work, but they would need to be on a massive scale never seen before to affect the region significantly in mere generations, and it would need a Paraguay like situation, and that kinda ends up being borderline genocide in this case. Considering the POD is aroun 1850.
 
Intermarrying or similar policies could maybe work, but they would need to be on a massive scale never seen before to affect the region significantly in mere generations, and it would need a Paraguay like situation, and that kinda ends up being borderline genocide in this case. Considering the POD is aroun 1850.

It depend on the level of warfare. If the Central Asia are in a revolt, there will be a generation afterward where there's a surplus of women. At the same time Russian ban the normal way o deal with this (polygamy) and place a lot of soldiers and administrators in the region. Especially the soldiers are likely to be young and single, but many administrators will also be relative young and unmarried. At the same time Russia send in colonists. The result are a increase in Russian percent of the population through two ways, at the same time becoming Russian will be a way of social advancement. So some of the locals assimilate that way. Are there a good chance of it ending up a Russian version of French Algeria; of course, but it could also go another way; like Siberia and Outer Manchua, where this strategy worked.
 
Technically speaking, though, Central Asia was a part of Russia rather than a colony.
It is debatable. Russian central Asia for the whole Russian Empire period was subordinated to military rule of Turkestan Governor-generals. In my eyes it is a clear sign of colonial government
Makes sense. However, could we see large numbers of Central Asians intermarrying with ethnic Russians and then having their children adopt Christianity?

It is yet another assimilation strategy. While workable it won't lead to Orthodox Central Asians it will lead to local Russians having darker skin than in European Russia.

You should also note that while Russian Empire was a quite nationalistic state this nationalism was entirely language and religion based and had almost no racial components. By definition everyone who had Russian as his mother tongue and was Orthodox was considered Russian. Thus if local Turkish person converts into Orthodoxy adopting Russian language ( that living in Russian Empire local people know it on some level ) becomes really beneficial as it immediately makes said man first-class citizen. The temptation is pretty high and since converting is already breaking with forefathers roots I see no real reasons not to give in into that temptation.


The most likely religious transformation of Central Asia would be based on the Czar settling large number of Russians in the area, and conversion being based on the local assimilating into Russian culture.

This is basically OTL. For the whole period between 1930s and 1980s there were more Russians in Kazakhstan than Kazakhs.
If we butterfly away Soviet language policy that greatly supported local languages ( at least in most Soviet Republics other than RSFSR) and/or intensify Russian colonization of the region Russians can probably assume at least three quarters of modern Kazakhstan population.

Arguably incredibly fertile Fergana valley can also be made plurality Russian. There was a pretty substantial Russian settlement of the area IOTL and given how divided local population is ( there are local Uzbeks, Tadjics, Meskhetian Turks and Kyrgiz constanly feuding with each other both in XIX century and today) if local administration implements divide and conquer policy among locals and if Russian settlement has strong governmental support Fergana can probably have Russian plurality ( of course including assimilated local people how chose to identify themselves as Russians to avoid constant internal struggle )
 
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Basically continued Russian Empire, let's say a better adminstration in Russia post 1880 that leads to earlier industrialization, let's say victory over Japanese and the establishment of railroads through Dzungaria and maybe the Tarim Basin going through Central Asia? Not sure how feasible.

In any case the more industrialization opens up for more industrial cities in deep Central Asia, eventually the presence of Oil would increase the size of those even more in the 20th century and without world wars Russia would have more population and overall more settlers all around.

But I'm not sure how this would affect any area outside Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
 
So it is feasible to have a Russian majority in the area? Would that count as a "conversion" for the OP?
 
Basically continued Russian Empire, let's say a better adminstration in Russia post 1880 that leads to earlier industrialization, let's say victory over Japanese and the establishment of railroads through Dzungaria and maybe the Tarim Basin going through Central Asia? Not sure how feasible.

I don't really see how conquest of Dzungaria or victory over Japanese would help Russian Colonization of Central Asia (not taking in account general improvement of internal situation in Russia but this probably can be achieved more easily without any sort of military action). If anything it could potentially distract some settlers to Dzungaria and Manchuria.


Earlier railroad OTOH could certainly help. IOTL railroads in Central Asia were connected to main Russian railroads only in 1906 with opening of Orenburg-Tashkent railroad. IOTL in 1870s there were plans to create this railroad at once but after some consideration it was decided to only create railroads in Southern Turkestan for military purposes. This decision can be butterflied away especially if Russia is stronger economically ITTL.
But I'm not sure how this would affect any area outside Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
Kazakhstan had Russian majority for 50 years IOTL despite Soviet language policy that favored Kazakh language.

Turkmenistan OTOH is almost completely unsuitable for Russian agricultural cultivation. At best one could hope for a few Russian-speaking oiler cities like OTL Baku ( and indeed several towns in Turkmenistan IOTL). While it can have a substantial Russian minority I really don’t see it being much more than 20% ( it was 18% on its peak IOTL but I guess it could be made more stable ITTL).

Kyrgyzstan was 30% Russian at its peak in our TL.

Great catch.
I forgot about Chuy Valley (where more than half of these Russians were concentrated) that IOTL had East-Slavic majority until the end of Soviet times. It can easily be increased ITTL.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I don't really see how conquest of Dzungaria or victory over Japanese would help Russian Colonization of Central Asia (not taking in account general improvement of internal situation in Russia but this probably can be achieved more easily without any sort of military action). If anything it could potentially distract some settlers to Dzungaria and Manchuria.

Wouldn't Russians only move to Dzungaria or Manchuria if these areas were actually annexed by Russia?

Earlier railroad OTOH could certainly help. IOTL railroads in Central Asia were connected to main Russian railroads only in 1906 with opening of Orenburg-Tashkent railroad. IOTL in 1870s there were plans to create this railroad at once but after some consideration it was decided to only create railroads in Southern Turkestan for military purposes. This decision can be butterflied away especially if Russia is stronger economically ITTL.

How do you make Russia stronger economically during this time?

Kazakhstan had Russian majority for 50 years IOTL despite Soviet language policy that favored Kazakh language.

So, had the language policy of a surviving Tsarist Russia been pro-Russian and anti-Kazakh, the Russian advantage in Kazakhstan would have been even more significant, correct?

Turkmenistan OTOH is almost completely unsuitable for Russian agricultural cultivation. At best one could hope for a few Russian-speaking oiler cities like OTL Baku ( and indeed several towns in Turkmenistan IOTL). While it can have a substantial Russian minority I really don’t see it being much more than 20% ( it was 18% on its peak IOTL but I guess it could be made more stable ITTL).

What about significantly expanding the size and population of these cities as a result of migration, though?

Great catch.
I forgot about Chuy Valley (where more than half of these Russians were concentrated) that IOTL had East-Slavic majority until the end of Soviet times. It can easily be increased ITTL.

OK.

Also, how inclined do you think that Central Asians would be in regards to marrying ethnic Russians (or Ukrainians, or Belarusians)?
 
Wouldn't Russians only move to Dzungaria or Manchuria if these areas were actually annexed by Russia?

Manchuria was under Russian control before Russian-Japanese War after which it fell under Japanese control. One would assume that had Russia won that war or if it is averted Manchuria would be heavily colonized as was planned by Russian government ( and partially implemented IOTL; Harbin for instance was majorly Russian until 1930s).

With Dzungaria maybe I didn’t get @Gloss ‘s idea but IMHO there is no much reason to build railroads into Dzungaria if Russia doesn’t at least has de-facto control over it like it had of Manchuria.
How do you make Russia stronger economically during this time?
Now that is a very difficult question that I don’t really know how to answer. There are of course specific small decisions that could locally somewhat increase Russian economic capacity, but the general solution is probably earlier and/or more radical abolition of serfdom. While I think the latter was definitely possible it is a very major PoD that would dramatically.


Fortunately a decision to create Orenburg-Tashkent railroad in 1870-1880s does not necessarily require such massive changes in Russian history. It was on the table IOTL and could have been made without other major butterflies.

So, had the language policy of a surviving Tsarist Russia been pro-Russian and anti-Kazakh, the Russian advantage in Kazakhstan would have been even more significant, correct?
I definitely think so. As I wrote earlier ( sorry for quoting myself but I don’t really want to rephrase it):
If we butterfly away Soviet language policy that greatly supported local languages ( at least in most Soviet Republics other than RSFSR) and/or intensify Russian colonization of the region Russians can probably assume at least three quarters of modern Kazakhstan population.

Arguably incredibly fertile Fergana valley can also be made plurality Russian. There was a pretty substantial Russian settlement of the area IOTL and given how divided local population is ( there are local Uzbeks, Tadjics, Meskhetian Turks and Kyrgiz constanly feuding with each other both in XIX century and today) if local administration implements divide and conquer policy among locals and if Russian settlement has strong governmental support Fergana can probably have Russian plurality ( of course including assimilated local people how chose to identify themselves as Russians to avoid constant internal struggle )

Additionally of those people who would continue identify themselves as Kazakhs many could have Russian as their mother tongue ( as many OTL Tatars who don’t now more than several hundred Tatar words).

In fact for Kazakhstan having Russian-language majority we don’t really need any sorts of early butterflies. Keep Soviet Union and Russian would be most spoken language in Kazakhstan ( even if many speakers would identify themselves as Kazakh).

Outside of OTL Kazakhstan two places most likely to have substantial Russian population outside cities are Chuy Valley ( that had Russian majority IOTL) and Fergana valley ( that can at best have Russian plurality).
What about significantly expanding the size and population of these cities as a result of migration, though?
Oil and gas industry doesn't need that many people though. And there is really no much other reasons for Russian person to settle in OTL-Turkmenistan than said industry. So at best I can see these towns remaining largly Russian-speaking thus keeping stable 15-20% of Russian population.

Also, how inclined do you think that Central Asians would be in regards to marrying ethnic Russians (or Ukrainians, or Belarusians)?
They would as they did IOTL. Intermarrige is one of the main tools of assimilation after all.

BTW, in last posts we are not talking about Christianization of locals but more about Russian colonization and assimilation. The latter is much more feasible but does this variation actually fit into your desired premise?
 
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