Warsaw Pact Mutiny

I've heard comments about this in other threads and I thought it was interesting enough to warrant a full thread.

Anyway, it's the 1980s and for whatever reason (not really needed for this TL in my opinion), the Warsaw Pact and NATO are on high alert against each other. On a cold, dark night, trigger-happy East German sentries shoot and kill some of their West German counterparts, and the whole thing goes to hell in a handbasket very quickly--full-scale, conventional WWIII.

I've heard that large groups of soldiers in different Warsaw Pact countries, especially in Poland and Czechoslovakia, weren't really all that keen on fighting a third world war on the Soviets' behalf. What would be needed for those militaries to "mutiny" against the Soviet military and/or other Warsaw Pact countries?

Simply put, the POD is this: in the midst of a full-scale conventional WWIII between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, a large percentage of the Polish, Czechoslovakian, and (for good measure) Hungarian militaries revolt against the Communists. What happens next? Does the Warsaw Pact front collapse in on itself, or do the Soviets merely crush the rebellious units?
 

Chris

Banned
I've heard comments about this in other threads and I thought it was interesting enough to warrant a full thread.

Anyway, it's the 1980s and for whatever reason (not really needed for this TL in my opinion), the Warsaw Pact and NATO are on high alert against each other. On a cold, dark night, trigger-happy East German sentries shoot and kill some of their West German counterparts, and the whole thing goes to hell in a handbasket very quickly--full-scale, conventional WWIII.

I've heard that large groups of soldiers in different Warsaw Pact countries, especially in Poland and Czechoslovakia, weren't really all that keen on fighting a third world war on the Soviets' behalf. What would be needed for those militaries to "mutiny" against the Soviet military and/or other Warsaw Pact countries?

Simply put, the POD is this: in the midst of a full-scale conventional WWIII between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, a large percentage of the Polish, Czechoslovakian, and (for good measure) Hungarian militaries revolt against the Communists. What happens next? Does the Warsaw Pact front collapse in on itself, or do the Soviets merely crush the rebellious units?

DEpends on the exact situation. The soviet supply lines have just taken one hell of a beating. They're going to have to concentrate on securing those lines and breaking up their new enemies while trying to hold the line against NATO. It could get pretty nasty.

Chris
 
The Soviets did have plans for this eventuality. The main problem, of course, is that it will remove troops from the frontline. This will immensly help NATO.
 
Heh one of my first attempt at doing an AH Story was about a scenario were a whole lot of the Warsaw Pact country rose up against Moscow (thought I have to admit it wasn't really research) :D
 
To have those nations rebel against the Warsaw Pact certainly would have impacted the outcome of full-scale shooting war with NATO, simply put supply lines would've been plugged up, and fighting NATO in and of itself with the way the war started would've been quite difficult let alone having a major mutiny with three allies hampering your supply lines, NATO going into full REFORGER while pulling out all the stops in defense of Western Europe, the only thing the Soviets are thinking is diplomacy. To have a shooting war start because some East German soldiers decide to take pot shots at West German soldiers would seem quite a stretch unless it was done by design to start a war and in such a case the WARSAW Pact would've made major moves in preparations for such an offense and that would've been very hard to hide. Also in such a case it would seem reasonable that those mutinous nations would've echoed their sentiments from the start truly given the Soviets pause in any such case to commit to full scale war with NATO, and how would the other WARSAW Pact allies take to the Soviets invading 3 of their allies for not falling in line with their machinations. Remember their was a lot of resentment in the WARSAW Pact with the Soviets bullying members to pursue their agenda, just take a quick look at the NATO members that joined after the collapse of the Soviet Union and subsequent collapse of the WARSAW Pact. It would seem that with an undefined agenda other than revenge that the Soviets wouldn't suddenly swing into full offense mode and just go full barrel out the gate into World War III. I think the Soviets would have had difficulty in invading Western Europe in the '80s with most WARSAW Pact nations knowing that it would've been their cities and towns bombed before any Soviet cities, and with three crucial allies down as well as a war started by anger over border sniping with an ill-defined agenda where's the incentive to commit to such an endeavor? An invasion would've likely lead to nuclear war if a WARSAW Pact advance had any chance of taking Paris in 10 days, and the WARSAW Pact allies knew that. Diplomacy would've been the only option in such an event the Soviets were very aware of what was at stake by the 80's if they invaded Western Europe, and the cost was to high especially under the circumstances described. Diplomacy is all we'd would've seen under such a scenario, plus WARSAW Pact nations weren't completely isolated from the world at large like N.Korea, and even under Soviet rule the will of the people have to be committed for such a high stakes endeavor, and NATO vs. WARSAW Pact was an all in type of gamble that could've put a very real face on MAD for the future generations of cockroaches to study. Take care.
 
I wonder at what point the Soviet Union would freak out and throw in its own atomic weapons. The Soviet Response to this mass defection is going to be critical. Warning off NATO to sit out the entire affair might not be an option, but you've got the Red Army making a massive police action, and I suspect that NATO might do little other than move to high alert and guard the IntraGerman Border.

NATO didn't try to liberate Hungary, Czechloslovkia or Poland during their uprisings, and I am inclined to think that the best NATO is going to do is be able to smuggle many inhabitants of those countries across the Iron Curtain. The Soviets would be grumpy with this outcome, but its probably better to have wholesale defection of military units rather than destroy the Warsaw pact.

NATO probably pushes the Soviets for concessions; the Soviets probably yield. These would be things like the East German Commander being arrested and sent to a trial in Western Europe, as well as a possible indemnity paid by the East German government. The Soviets don't like this, but East Germany clearly jumped first--and this is a sacrifice that the Soviets can pay while they wipe out a large number of dissidents. Millions flee to the West during the small opportunity that results.

Come 1 year later, the Warsaw Pact Nations are on a tighter leash than ever--possibly with more autocratic leaders and more aggressive secret police. The Cold War continues, but the three million who fled the Eastern Bloc are able to make a better life for themselves in Western Europe.
 
Why not just go with SOP Warsaw Pact fall manouevres going haywire with a Tank division or two for some odd reason, bad or no maps - crossing the wire into Fulda Gap?
Then have Polish railway workers electro weld all rolling stock at Warsaw marshalling yards to the rails ending all movement by train through that hub then the Soviet response trigger off the Czeks.

With the need of smashing unrest/rebellion the WP drive runs out of steam in the middle of the Gap and reinforcements are diverted to beat Poland, Czekoslovakia and Hungary back in line.
This would probably set off the Catholic church in support of rebellions against the Communist Anti-Christ.

I doubt the NATO countries would really take advantage of the situation if only because they would have to await reforger units to arrive and national armies to be mobilized.
That would give the Soviets about a month to do their policing and at that time so many citizens of WP countries have left their home lands as to make the 1989 exodus a picnic.
The WP would soon collapse at least when the remaining hear from their relatives in the West that the goods at the grocers are for real and never exhausted and the secret police doesn't round you up every now and then.
 
I wonder at what point the Soviet Union would freak out and throw in its own atomic weapons. The Soviet Response to this mass defection is going to be critical. Warning off NATO to sit out the entire affair might not be an option, but you've got the Red Army making a massive police action, and I suspect that NATO might do little other than move to high alert and guard the IntraGerman Border.

If this was taking place without WWIII having begun a few weeks earlier, that would probably happen.

Given the fact that there's been a shooting war for awhile, I don't think NATO wouldn't try to more seriously take advantage.
 
Top