Warsaw Pact-Bolt from the Blue

Okay most NATO vs Warsaw Pact fiction and scenarios have both sides getting ready and expecting the war. What I'm wondering is what would happen if Group of Soviet Forces Germany and other Warsaw Pact units attacked with little to no warning.

My idea is this, 1985 the Russians have their annual spring exercise with Warsaw Pact forces. NATO sees them standing down, but then a few days later the GSFG and other units in Czechoslovakia attack Germany. There's no air strikes till after Warsaw Pact troops have attacked across the IGB. As a result NATO air power is still spinning up as the battle starts, REFORGER hasn't happened, and NORTHAG and CENTAG forces aren't in their forward positions. The Soviet goal is to overrun Germany as fast as they can.

Is this idea possible? Can NATO hold the initial attack long enough to bring reinforcements in or do the Russians have a good chance of reaching the Rhine with what's in the GDR?

Also this is CONVENTIONAL, no nukes.
 
IIRC there was a PC wargame about that - called The Fulda Gap or suchlike - where the WP just wakes up one morning and throws every available man over the border, the idea being total surprise should (hopefully) make up for the lack of preparation. I've never played it, plus it's a grand strategy game, so I have no idea what the conclusions were. My two bits: troops not really prepared to defend > troops not really prepared to attack; the commies might indeed gain some ground through sheer surprise but I don't think they'll do well in the ensuing conventional war.

None of this applies with nukes, &c, &c.
 
IIRC there was a PC wargame about that - called The Fulda Gap or suchlike - where the WP just wakes up one morning and throws every available man over the border, the idea being total surprise should (hopefully) make up for the lack of preparation. I've never played it, plus it's a grand strategy game, so I have no idea what the conclusions were.

That's where I first saw the idea. The games have NATO coming out on top.
 
The pact would need to reach the rhine befor nato can get its forces in germany upp too full strength, this is about 30 days.

The strenght is about:
SU: Tank div: Motor div:
GSFG (germany) 11 8
CGF (Czechoslovakia) 2 3
NGF (Poland) 1 1

Other Pact:
NVA (DDR) 2 4
CSLA (Cezch) 5 5
LWP (POL) 5 8

Total in Place Forces 26 29
Old tanks 8.325
New tanks 9.125
total tanks 17,450

Nato Armourd Forces:
Bundeswehr 6 4
US army -europe 3 2
BAOR 3 0
I Netherlands Corps 0 3
Belgian Army 0 2
Canadian Forces - Europe 0 1
French Corps - Germany 3 0
Denmark 0 1
Subototal: 15 13
Tanks 13,750

There is pre-place equipment for 5 more divsion of US, french and Uk troops
that would be combat ready whit airlifts inn roughly 30 days that would increass nato tank strenght too 15,650 tanks.

So the pact would have about 30 days to decsisivly win in germany, having 3700 tanks and 27 divsions more than Nato.
Unsure about the abilety of air power to negate this thought.
 
This is suggested by the character Generals in Clancy's Red Storm Rising, and rejected. Something similar is also the theme of a book called Third World War, August 1985 by Gen. John Hackett. Hackett's book has NATO caught still in their barracks, units not up to personnel strength to crew their weapons etc.

Personally I think cycling from peace to war in 48 hours would be a good way for the SU to win it, since they could have all the advantages. However what is the pretext for such a war? Wars start as a result of political tensions, incidents etc, so there is usually some time to take some precautions. And if the defender has taken some precautions the advantages gained from bolt from the blue offensives are nullified, so the attacker has to increase his own strength to succeed.
 
Not winnable for the USSR, and there are apparently some hilarious stories of the misfortunate results of such drills.
 
WP manoeuvres were staged to a great extent, moving from there to invasion wouldn't have worked. The built up of forces took time and couldn't go unnoticed by NATO.
What was possible is: Launch a wave of combat regiments into Germany, seize the border areas (with all the peace time prepared NATO barriers) and try to interlock with NATO forces as far west as possible. At the same time, mobilise the main forces and feed them into the invasion as they become available. (And launch the initial attack on a saturnday or sunday, because the west german army isn't in the barracks over weekend.)
This wouldn't give the WP the Rhine, but perhaps a line Hamburg - Hannover - Würzburg - Nürnberg.
 
Assuming it works (which is very unlikely given how complicated such an undertaking would be if you tried to keep it secret), the very fact of success would mean it doesn't stay conventional. That is the very reason why NATO always kept the option of a nuclear first strike open.
 
Assuming it works (which is very unlikely given how complicated such an undertaking would be if you tried to keep it secret), the very fact of success would mean it doesn't stay conventional. That is the very reason why NATO always kept the option of a nuclear first strike open.

Additionally, if NATO for some reasons decided not to employ tactical and operational nukes during early 1950's, then significant resources spent on nuclear weapons and their delivery systems would be spent on conventional forces, further enhancing the NATO advantage.
 
I think the Russians might be able to cover the attack better than a lot of people think. After all didn't the invasion of Afghanistan catch the US off guard? I agree with the guy from Red Storm Rising NATO will spend at least a day debating on what's going on in the GDR by time they come to a conclusion its too late.

Also I doubt nuclear release would come as quick as people think. NATO was a democratic alliance, the Germans wouldn't be too keen on turning the countryside into a WMD battlefield. Plus if the Russian attack is successful, they are going to trap a lot of civilians and NATO forces behind their lines. Any nuclear attack will result in the worst Blue on Blue incident.
 

burmafrd

Banned
There is a huge difference between middle europe and afghanistan. Its not really comparable. In any way. From the size of the forces involved, to how many eyes are watching central Europe Vs Afghanistan, and so on.
 

burmafrd

Banned
And one must remember that now we know the Red Army was in a lot worse shape then many thought in the 1980's.
 
NATO initiates Operation Red Lightning.....





The whole idea was designed to take advantage of the alcoholism problem in the Soviet Army.

Crates of alcohol would be prepositioned along the expected line of advance of Soviet units, the Soviet personnel would soon become more interested in the alcohol than moving forward to be shot at.

Alcohol submunitions were also developed for NATO aircraft and the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and Tactical Missile System (TACMS) batteries to drop once the war became more fluid and prepositioning was not feasible.

The priority targets for the Kinetic Controlled Air Scatterable Alcoholic Munitions (KICAS-AM) would be in the path of attacking Soviet units, assembly areas, river-crossing sites and headquarters. Each exploding rocket would scatter hundreds of fluorescent orange round plastic miniatures, each on its own parachute.

For Headquarters targets, a special sub-category of KICAS-AM was developed, the Delayed Effect Bomb Cluster, Alcoholic, Leadership (DEBOCALL), which used a higher quality of Vodka that most Soviets never saw as it was reserved for the elite and for export.

.
 
I dubt the Soviets could achive total suprise. It's too much troops to hide and NATO must have had some plans for a event like this. They could have made some small scale suprises with their Spetznaz units, or could they?
 
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