Warring States: a 19th Century China Oneshot

Here’s a silly, rather implausible oneshot scenario I’ve written.

The Qing court tries to purge Zeng Guofan in the early 1860s after the death of the Xianfeng Emperor, and fails, causing him, his relations, and his personally loyal Hunan Army to split off from the Qing empire, and declare that the regents for the infant Tongzhi Emperor are illegitimate, and rebel to "suppress the evil clique surrounding the Emperor." The Taipings surge, but Hong Xiuquan dies before true victory or international recognition is attained, and the Heavenly Kingdom is torn asunder by a conflict between the familial authority of Hong Rengan, and the military faction supporting Li Xiucheng, both of which interpret and pervert the religion's teachings to their own ends (lazy parallelism to the Shia-Sunni split). Henry Burgevine, commander of the barbarian mercenary "Ever-Victorious Army" (who in OTL later rebelled against the Qing), convinces his subordinate Charles "Chinese" Gordon to revolt after one of the many instances of Chinese bureaucratic intransigence and Qing disrespect, and then is promptly killed, leaving Gordon to command a giant, well-armed, rampaging mercenary army. This army then proceeds to kick out the Qing around Shanghai, before heading north, where they grind down into bloody stalemate. This intervention, of course, has completely ruined any faith the Chinese had in the fair dealings of the international settlement at Shanghai, so the Qing refuse to resume governance there without "reparations" being paid, and other humiliations. Sensing an impasse, the French and British, now that no imperial or Taiping (either faction) troops are within 40 miles of the city, simply declare a condominium over Shanghai and its surrounds, deciding that, for China to trade, some territorial control is necessary under the present circumstances. They of course never leave, at least not within the timeframe we're concerned with. The Nian rebels and Yunanese Muslims of course take this opportunity to seize Qing territory.

For a while all seems lost for the Qing, yet a few military victories and Russian support allows the Qing to hold on to northern and Northeastern China, albeit at the cost of triaging away almost everywhere else. Making do with what they have, and with a feeling of decadence now inescapable, they reemphasize their Manchu identity, which solidifies their hold on their remaining territories but creates a major political-cultural obstacle to ever expanding again much farther southwards. The Tributary states (Tibet, the various central Asian potentates) declare autonomy, or simply acquire it. Korea remains, but in a much looser and more equal relationship, complete with imperial marriage to the Korean royal line. 12-15 years on from out initial 1861 POD, we have a roughly stable multipolar China; an increasingly farcial “regency” of the Zeng family clique ruling over Hunan and adjacent areas, two warring Taiping factions, now with significant theological differences from each other, a European-led mercenary army-state, under the formidable leadership of Gordon, ruling from northern Jiangsu up to the Shandong Peninsula, various Nian-derived polities and armies, autonomous Yunanese Muslims and miscellaneous hill people in the far south, the Franco-British colony of Shanghai now gradually undergoing expansion via mission creep, and, finally, a shrunken and dependent, but still very much alive, Qing dynasty, now ideologically altered to exist “autochthonously” in its reduced territory.
 

Kaze

Banned
I would see a lot of European nations licking their lips at the territory being up for grabs of the Sick Man of Asia - I would not put it past the British to annex the whole of Guangdong Province.
 
I would see a lot of European nations licking their lips at the territory being up for grabs of the Sick Man of Asia - I would not put it past the British to annex the whole of Guangdong Province.
In the aftermath of the Sepoy Rebellion, the British were extremely chary of acquiring new territory. That’s why they didn’t pounce on China IOTL. They may plant the flag along the coast and establish unequal relationships with Chinese authorities in the region, but they’ll probably only grab a few smaller ports. Any attempt to seize Guǎngzhōu will almost certainly result in a storm of French protest.
 

Kaze

Banned
Considering that within a few years, China Gordon was sent to put down the Mahdi in Africa suggests the British were still looking to expand colonialism. The whole reason why Gordon died in that place was because the Empire wanted to add a part of Africa to its realms and protect what they already had there within. Adding Guandong Province by a stroke of a pen, would be far cheaper than losing a good general to the sands of Sudan.
 
IOTL it was something of a scandal when Hong Kong was annexed instead of the Chusan islands. If Britain and France are establishing condominium over Shanghai then Britain may decide to take another bite at Chusan. It's the perfect position to guard Shanghai- or strangle it if the Chinese ever take it back.
 
Considering that within a few years, China Gordon was sent to put down the Mahdi in Africa suggests the British were still looking to expand colonialism. The whole reason why Gordon died in that place was because the Empire wanted to add a part of Africa to its realms and protect what they already had there within. Adding Guandong Province by a stroke of a pen, would be far cheaper than losing a good general to the sands of Sudan.
That was decades later after the scramble had started. By that point the whole British attitude had changed.
 
May I have some private advice on my Chinese oneshot from one of the eminently qualified people on this thread?
It doesn’t entail any actual knowledge of the subject just a sense of judgment about how to do TLs
But if I say it in “public”, then it would be an autospoiler if I do decide to use my putative idea.
 
Considering that within a few years, China Gordon was sent to put down the Mahdi in Africa suggests the British were still looking to expand colonialism. The whole reason why Gordon died in that place was because the Empire wanted to add a part of Africa to its realms and protect what they already had there within. Adding Guandong Province by a stroke of a pen, would be far cheaper than losing a good general to the sands of Sudan.
What are you talking about?Chinese Gordon was sent to evacuate Sudan.He wasn’t meant to put down the rebellion.He disobeyed the order and tried to suppress it,even using his popularity with the public to force the government to try and send reinforcements to put it down.
 

mad orc

Banned
Any timeline that has the evil Chinese authoritarian Manchu(Or Mao) rulers destroyed is good enough for me ,please continue .
 

Kaze

Banned
What are you talking about?Chinese Gordon was sent to evacuate Sudan.He wasn’t meant to put down the rebellion.He disobeyed the order and tried to suppress it,even using his popularity with the public to force the government to try and send reinforcements to put it down.

I will agree with you partially. But one must ask why the British needed to Evacuate in the first place? If you look onto the Scramble for Africa, it is obvious why the British were there - colonialism. There were plans to make the Sudan a British colony.
 
I will agree with you partially. But one must ask why the British needed to Evacuate in the first place? If you look onto the Scramble for Africa, it is obvious why the British were there - colonialism. There were plans to make the Sudan a British colony.
The British evacuated because they thought that Sudan didn’t worth the trouble. They subsequently returned many years later because they realized that if they don’t get Sudan for themselves,other colonial powers like France will claim it for themselves,which they actually did and led to the Fashoda Crisis.
 
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