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What PoD or pair would allow the US/Japan war scare of 1907 to become a actual war?

What are the most likely courses for such a war?

My first thought is Japan reneges on the Portmouth Treaty & does not evacuate to specified areas in Manchuria. Second is the anti Asian race riots in the US go out of control with serious loss of life & Asian businesses.

Does either Japan or the US have any significant ability to attack the other without a year of logistical preparation?
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