War preempts Munich: 1938

[raharris1973]

Okay, so if you want to have WWII start in 1938, the better way to go about it is to have Hitler just force the war against Czechoslovakia to start before Chamberlain asks for one last conference, than to have Chamberlain or anyone in Britain deliberately decide to fight over the Sudetenland.

Denied the chance to even negotiate Czech surrender by a hurrying Hitler, France and the UK reluctantly declare war, but undertake no offensive action on land.

So, when Hitler begins the war on Czechoslovakia, you need to get past any possible coup attempts. It's plausible for plotters to lose their nerve or to try and then fail. That's the direction I want to go with with this one.

Then you've got the question of how the war against the Czechs goes. Germany doesn't have so overwhelming an edge as it would against Poland in 1939. The Czechs I believe had more modern weaponry, especially armor and aircraft. Unfortunately for the Czechs though, alot of the Czechoslovak artillery corps are ethnic Germans, and ethnic divisions can have a weakening effect on Czechoslovak capability across the board. Also, in the infantry versus infantry battles on the frontiers, the Germans at least are not invading an entirely foreign country- the local civilians favor the Wehrmacht over the Czechoslovak army. I'll give the Czechs, generously, 8 weeks, a few more than Poland had in 1939.

The Germans need to spend the winter of 1938-1939 resting, refitting and training for the next year's campaign.

"What next?" is the question I want to open up for floor debate. The main danger to Germany is France, making it the logical target of a spring 1939 campaign. However, there is still Poland to the east, technically neutral, but annoyingly positioned on Germany's eastern flank, cutting off East Prussia. Perhaps they should be taken care of in an early spring campaign. But that brings its own complications--how much of Poland is needed? If you leave any residual Poland it will wait for revenge, but going all the way to its eastern border will commit German forces far to the east while France is still there as a threat, and on top of that, bring a common border with the Soviet Union. Would Hitler and Stalin agree on a partition of Poland and a non-aggression pact? This could be difficult, especially if Stalin provided Soviet air support to the Czechs. Plus to the north, British action may threaten Germany's ability to import Swedish ore through Norwegian waters.

Hence the poll

 

[luakel]

France. Unless Poland declares war by itself, Hitler has other fish to fry. I'm not even sure that the battle of France would be a German victory, as the Wermacht will be very worn out after Czechoslovokia.

 

[raharris1973]

Hmm, I wonder what Poland's odds of not getting conquered at all

are in this scenario.

 

[NHBL]

Missing tanks

This POD means that Hitler doesn't have many Czech tanks in his inventory. This does not do good things for the Panzer divisions...

 

[Nicole]

I think you place far too much value in ethnicity in the Czech conquest. The Czechs had a rather good army, and the Sudetenland positions are highly defensible, though filled with Germans, surely not all of which are Nazi supporters.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Disaster for Germany.

Given the rugged terrain, the relatively modern Czechoslovakian military, the possibility of at least minor aid from France, the rest of the Little Entente, or even the USSR, and the less prepared German military, I would give a straight 10 percent chance of Prague beating the Germans off.

In 1939 Hitler was considered to have taken a terrible risk leaving the border with France so weak. In 1938 the question might be "What defense on the French border"?

But let us assume Hitler wins after a bloody campaign of 4-6 weeks and at least as much mopping up, with the real possibility of a seige of the central region around Prague doubling that. The war is over, the Luftwaffe has probably suffered something like 20 percent destroyed, and the Wehrmacht has lost around 100,000 dead and injured beyond active service. Plus a higher percentage of German military gear lost.

Far more serious is that the Allies, and France in particular, have no choice but to go into high gear of rearmament immediately. Between August 1939 and the Fall of France, Great Britain scraped up ten divisions plus several Commonwealth divisions. France was wracked by serious labor strife but still managed to make substantial increases in terms of modern equipment.

Now, if Hitler goes for Poland first, in 1939, he could easily be facing a French Army with the full eight armored divisions planned and no less than 35 British divisions(5 armored). I think Poland may get time to modernize the army.

Worst of all, of course, is the effective destruction of most of the Czech military. Given the best case scenario, Hitler just lost the equipment for 10 or 15 divisions he used against Poland. If the Czechs fought really hard, we could well see a Germany which is utterly defenseless against France AND invading Poland with barely 60 percent of OTL Wehrmacht. If the Czechs torched the arms factories...

 

[Matthew Craw]

I can't see any motivation for Hitler to invade Poland before his defeat, which (for all the reasons cited above) will probably come in 1939. Soviet involvement on the Czech side seems to be a certainty, but so is a Soviet attempt to grap the Baltics to "secure them from Fascist aggression".

There's an off chance that the Poles will attack a declining GBermany sometime in 39, but there's also a chance they'l join on germany's side; they want Czech territory and they will be VERY nervous about Soviet involvement on the Allied side

 

[Wendell]

Are people forgetting Germany's non-agression pact with Poland?

 

[Valamyr]

Germany would probably overrun the Czechs with some losses and then the highly unprepared French early in the next year. (The germans were less prepared of the course, but the french much more so in 38).

Hitler's moral grounds would be much better in this scenario, without any serious western appeasement, and probably no krsytalnacht (sp?) (Cant bother with that when youre at war). France would almost be seen as the agressor if it interfered. At least, it would be as fuzzy as WW1.

Poland would probably only become a target after the fall of France, and then only if they didnt fold to German demands. They likely would have after France's fall, like Romania in OTL for instance.

 

[Superdude]

Everyone's forgetting that the Great Powers don't really want a war at all, and will likly want to get out of it as a soon as possible.

If Hitler overruns Czechoslovakia, and can bring up enough troops to make it LOOK like he can defend Germany like World War I, then most likely the Allies will try to get him to peace.

But then what happens if Hitler decides to go for war at the time he planned, in 1944? By that time he will have a massive navy, huge airforce, and all the advantages he didn't have in 1939.

 

[wkwillis]

The generals shoot Hitler immediately.
In 1938 Hitler did not have any reputation as smarter than his diplomats. He was facing the Russians, the British, the French, the Rumanians, the Poles, the Yugoslavs, the Czechs, and the Belgians. Loyalist Spain was still in existence.
Treaties? What makes you think the Germans are the only people allowed to break treaties?
Russia correctly believed that the Germans were being built up to fight them.
The British were worried about the new submarines that Germany was building, and the Luftwaffe that was explicitly designed to reach London.
The French were occupying German territory and Hitler had made no bones about getting it back.
The Rumanians were pleading to be backed up as they cut off Germanies oil supplies before we Hungarians worked up our nerve to take back Transylvania.
The Poles were terrified of Nazi Germany and in favor of immediate war.
The Yugoslavs were worried about the Italians once the Germans were powerfull enough to encourage them. Not to mention the Germans wanted Slovenia and the Hungarians wanted Vojvodina.
The Czechs were about to be attacked. They expected their allies to stand by their treaties and not break them.
Belgium was explicitly neutral because France had betrayed them when they let the Germans have the Rhineland back. If France returned to the Belgian side, the Belgians would have been glad to have the alliance again.
Germany would have been surrounded and forced to fight everyone at once, with half as big an army as they had one year later in both trained men and armaments, and with no raw material imports of any kind from any source. Even the Italians weren't really enthusiastic about war.

 

[MarkA]

If Hitler waited until 1944 to go to war Germany would be bankrupt. Only the outbreak of war in 1939 saved the Nazi state from insolvency. The Nazis were not good economic managers to say the least.

They could maybe just last until 1941 at the latest and have Bismark fully operational and a better balanced navy as well as a larger airforce. But then France and Britain would be much stronger as well, as would the Poles.

 

[perdedor99]

France. I played the scenario of a 1938 invasion of Checoslovaquia and losses are acceptable for the wehrmacht. More important is the losses in equipment due to the fighting and the damage to the Skoda factories.

Stalin will recognize Hitler is too busy to do anything about his expansion plans and we can see him making a move versus the Baltic States a full year ahead of OTL schedule. That will make the Polish nervous enough to do nothing against Germany and they also have a non-aggresion part with the Germans signed in 1935 IIRC.

Could a blitzkrieg stil happens? IMO yes, no changes have occurred except less Panzer divisions and more less equip units. The blitz was about tactics, not equipment. The allies have the whole winter of 1939 to prepare themselves for war and were creamed in two months. The defensive plan continues to be the same, the Dyle Plan, and I guess the Germans will launch the original plan they had, the one was captured in the crashed plane.

So they could win? IIMO yes. The blitz was more a victory of the will and the French panicked as soon as the Germans were behind their lines. Plain and simple. And nothing has happened that changes the will to fight of the French nation. Only thing has changed is the German capabilities to launch a Blitz. I think it will not be a victory as complete as OTL French campaign but they will win.

 

[Superdude]

To MarkA: What I was thinking is Hitler brings military and government spending down and lets corporations bring the economy back up. Germany concentrates on a medium sized army, yet it is extremely advanced compared to others, but not quite as advanced as it was in otl 1944.

Also, since not all of Germany's industry is producing war materials, what about nuclear weapons?

 

[raharris1973]

Another factor

WWII-1938

Second poll – the Spanish issue

With WWII beginning in October 1938, the Spanish Civil War is still five months away from reaching its conclusion. Hitler would most likely want his Condor Legion back for service in the Reich’s war. The issue of transit for the Condor Legion would be of interest to the Allies, who would want to see its members trapped or interned. Also, as a practical concern for Franco, any German arms he imported in the last five months of the Spanish Civil War won’t be available to him.

Intervention in Spain may be a tempting option for the Allies, especially the French, over the winter of 1938-1939. In OTL’s WWII they seemed to be looking for sideshows that could transfer the main action away from their frontier in Europe, expressed in schemes like helping Finland or bombing Baku. In the ATL, a Spanish intervention may provide that sideshow and provide a method to distract from their inability to do anything about Czechoslovakia.

On the other hand, at this point Italy is neutral and the allies default preference is for Italy to remain neutral. But, Italy is heavily committed to Spain at this point. The Allies may adhere to the strictest neutrality in Spain in order not to offend Italy, resulting in the Spanish Civil War ending roughly on schedule with a Franco victory. On the other, other hand, the Allies are probably suspicious of a large Italian army in Spain, and if it does come to war, its vulnerable to being trapped in Spain. With general war occurring, Mussolini can try to press the Spanish War to conclusion (I don’t know what his ability to speed things up would be) or he could start doing some circling of the wagons and redeploy his expeditionary forces to protect the homeland and Italian colonies.

The other power making decisions relevant to Spain is the Soviet Union, in OTL it began seriously disengaging in October 1938. Munich may have been in a factor. In the ATL, there’s no Munich, but the outbreak of general war may still encourage disengagement. This is especially so if the USSR is trying to funnel volunteer forces (mostly air) to Czechoslovakia. However, Stalin may see more of a prospect for success in Spain with Germany now unable to provide fresh arms supplies for Franco.

So the questions are:
Does France change its policy, to favor the Spanish Republicans, or not?
Does the Condor Legion make it back to Germany, or not?
Does Mussolini escalate or deescalate in Spain?
Does the Soviet Union escalate and deescalate in Spain?
How sensitive is the outcome of the Spanish Civil War, and its timing, to these various adjustments in the policy of intervening powers?
Do the allies pull Italy into the war if they change their Spain policy? Do they mind? In OTL 1939 apparently some saw advantage in bringing Italy in, because it’s a target-rich empire susceptible to allied naval superiority. Possibly the Allies issue an ultimatum to get out of Spain?


There’s a broad range of options if the Allies want to see the Loyalists do better: A) direct intervention, B) Arms supplies to the Loyalists, C) Staying out of it but encouraging increases in Soviet aid, D) Ultimata to Franco and or the Italians to get foreign forces out of the country.

 

[Earling]

Im still wondering if anyone can come up with a suitably in depth description of how Prague is taken within 8 weeks given it is defended by geography, a well equipped army and unlike Poland will not have the USSR sweeping in from the east.

 

[fhaessig]

Even if Pragues falls, which I, for one, finds a dubious proposal at least, the next campaign against France is going to be a disaster.

The Wermacht will have less than half OTL tanks, and NO modern ones. It will be mostly PzI, with some PzII added. The kinks in the logistics and esp ammo stockpiles won't have been worked out.

The Luftwaffe will have the stuka and Me109, but in much less quantity than OTL. Even with Armée de l'Air deficient doctrine, the air won't belong to the germans as completely as OTL. Also, the special gliders kommandos won't be trained, so no Eben-Emael.

Against this, France will be less ready than OTL, but it really didn't use the better materials it received during the time. The differential in tank quality is going to be even more in France's favor, and the differential in numbers may even be enough to overcome the french stinking doctrine. In the air, the abscence of the De520 is going to be felt keenly, at least on a morale PoV, but the Curtises and MS406 will have much less modern German planes to deal with, so I think the (fewer) stukas won't have as easy a time as OTL. In artillery and Infantry, there won't be much difference, and, at least, France won't be caught in the middle of a complete reorganisation/change of armament, so there'a actually a chance it reacts better.

Also no German-Soviet pact, and indeed, no common German-soviet border after the first round of fighting, so no massive delivery of societ oil to power the Nazi war machine.

But most telling, it that in 1938, the Guderian plans of going through the ardennes in not yet devllopped, let alone presented or accepted, so a German offensive then ( or in 1939 ) will go through Belgium, right where the french expect it and have massed their best troops. Therefore no percee, no encriclement, no panic. Instead a slugging match, WW1.75.

Bottom line, Germany loses. Period.

 

[perdedor99]

Im still wondering if anyone can come up with a suitably in depth description of how Prague is taken within 8 weeks given it is defended by geography, a well equipped army and unlike Poland will not have the USSR sweeping in from the east.

IIRC the Czechs plan to do a fighting withdraw to Slovakia, while a Soviet Union expeditionary force could had arrived thru Romania by week three and a air corridor was available from the beginning. Poland was bullied by the Soviets to stay out and the Hungarians helped the German cause by just leaving their forces on the border, tying Czechs on Slovakia.


The German plan was to use the German 8th,10th and 12th armies in the direction of Prague, while the 2nd and 14th Armies cut thru different sides of the border to pinch the bulk of the Czech forces in Bohemia before they escaped to Slovakia. I have played this plan an it works. By week two/three the bulk of the Czech army is trapped in Bohemia and them I have to hold off the reinforcements coming from Slovakia. It will be difficult to defeat them and very bloody but must likley Stalin will see this as a sign the cause is done and withdrew his forces from the area. The allies will be shocked by the speed of the German forces in cutting the nation in half. Our TL Polish camapign will be a picnic compared to the destruction of the surrounded Czech forces but it could be done.

 

[fhaessig]

Our TL Polish camapign will be a picnic compared to the destruction of the surrounded Czech forces but it could be done.

Have you also computed the fact, that, OTL, the german had no more ammo reserves after fighting in Poland. Here, they have one year of production less for aworse fight. What happens when the Nazi run out of shells and bombs after a couple weeks?

 

[perdedor99]

Have you also computed the fact, that, OTL, the german had no more ammo reserves after fighting in Poland. Here, they have one year of production less for aworse fight. What happens when the Nazi run out of shells and bombs after a couple weeks?

They have the ammo for this campaign. read command magazine issue 24/ 1993. It makes a very good analysis of the situation and pretty much agreed the germans win the campaign. The rest of the war is another story.