War over Oregon

[trekchu]

Now this has probably been discussed before, but the search function does not like me at present.

Now, supposing that one of the many close calls in the Oregon Country in the 1840s goes too far and war eventually breaks out again between the British Empire and the United States of America? What little I know about the time period tells me that it could go either way...

 

[Dupplin Muir]

Hmm...the mightiest superpower the world has ever seen against a third-rate country with a fourth-rate army...yep, definitely going to be a close-run thing

 

[trekchu]

Either way, my first thought was that if the British have time to mobilize they could hold any pre-ACW US Army...

 

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

Hmm...the mightiest superpower the world has ever seen against a third-rate country with a fourth-rate army...yep, definitely going to be a close-run thing

The trouble is getting the men and arms to Oregon, which will be a semi-important front. Otherwise, you're mostly right. This may just be a repeat of the War of 1812.

Either way, my first thought was that if the British have time to mobilize they could hold any pre-ACW US Army...

Hold in this instance meaning destroy.

 

[trekchu]

I am relaunching a project of mine and I am pondering a third Anglo-AMerican war over Oregon, and I was wondering what might happen if it broke out. That said, I will accept either outcome as long as it serves to keep American interests and attentions in the Americas beyond 1900.

 

[Leistungsfähiger Amerikan]

This could go badly for the United States very quickly unless cooler heads prevail. It'll probably be a repeat of the War of 1812, with the one major change I can think of being a more hostile Mexico.

 

[trekchu]

True, true. However I think it needs a PoD earlier than 18th October 1831 (kudos for finding out the significance of that date) to make Mexico stand up to the United States.

 

[Fabilius]

I don´t know what happened 18th october 1831, but a Mexican reconquista would be pretty cool.

 

[trekchu]

Basically the second German Kaiser is born without any inclination for smoking, thus never gets cancer and whom we know as Billy II never exists.

 

[Fabilius]

Basically the second German Kaiser is born without any inclination for smoking, thus never gets cancer and whom we know as Billy II never exists.

My google search revealed that but I didn´t really connect it to events in 1840s.

I thought you were looking for something to do with Mexico. Now, a Mexico attempting to mess with US after OTL beating would be foolhardy, but if they enter as allies to Britain they´re at least on the winning side.

 

[trekchu]

I was thinking of giving the British-Allied Mexicans a so-so victory. Basically they still loose Texas and New Mexico and Colorado but manage to hold onto California an Nevada, whilst at the same time the British get their extreme claims in Oregon.

 

[Faeelin]

Why would either nation fight when the dispute really centered on the Oregon Triangle?

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I was thinking of giving the British-Allied Mexicans a so-so victory. Basically they still loose Texas and New Mexico and Colorado but manage to hold onto California an Nevada, whilst at the same time the British get their extreme claims in Oregon.

If the US losesx...they lose everything including any pretensions that texas may have had beyond the postage stamp borders claimed by mexico. No colorado river boundary, no New Mexico...and the southern border will be the nueces and medina

 

[RamscoopRaider]

If the US losesx...they lose everything including any pretensions that texas may have had beyond the postage stamp borders claimed by mexico. No colorado river boundary, no New Mexico...and the southern border will be the nueces and medina

No all this would mean is that the USA swipes this 20 years later when Britain is busy somewhere else, possibly with the cooperation of a European country that dislikes Britain

 

[GreatScottMarty]

I recommend the excellent book A Country of Vast Designs by Robert Merry. It does an excellent job of laying out the British and American interests in Oregon and is worth a read on the subject. It does a good job of showing that all the talk about Oregon and war was just that, talk, granted this book discusses the 1840s and not the 1830s. The two sides wanted an agreement that would both make them look strong, but the British knew what history knew which is that they had bitten off enough and instead of looking foolish they wanted to save face and keep canada intact which is what they got with the 48th parallel. Also we should the issue of demographics, there were simply more Americans living there then British and most likely would be. Similarly to California, a rump republic might exist but it would be tied in economically as well as culturally to the US not to Mexico or Britain. Out of curiosity what is the context in your TL

 

[trekchu]

I did get the type of answers I wanted. Thank you all.